Investor,

Orientor is well clear on the bare abilty rating but failed in this race last year when 7/4 fav` in what I believe was a weaker race than today. `O` failed to win last year and was beaten far and aquare by Needwood Blade last backend.

Orientor in my opinion is not a form horse.

Rightly or wrongly neither is the 2nd on ability namely Funfair Wane.

In my opinion both Smokin Beau and N.Blade are form horses and like you I believe both will run very well and you have a very good chance of collecting.

Red Carpet concerns me and for that reason I will not be playing here.

Good luck to you,

Cheers,

Well determined that was certainly spot on, give yourself a serious pat on the back.

Walter,

What with Pablo ( beautiful ) and Red Carpet anybody would think I was Pricewise !

Cheers,

Determined
I'd noted red carpet before the race,But from a class/ form point of view i thought the 2 selections had the beating of him,Running the horse in group company has obviously done the trick.Well done with pablo,nobody on here would have backed adiemus,And he was most certainly a false fav.

Yes i noticed you`d plumped for pablo in the tipping challenge determined you`ll be joining us boys in the prem next week possibly, ohh the heady heights of success lol.

Investor

I cannot agree with you re the Lincoln. In my view Adiemus was a solid c/f and a reasonable bet at Ladbrokes 5/1. Reviewing the race afterwards, I can see no reason to revise that view, and will be interested to read the trainer's account of why he ran disappointingly. However, as usual the c/f approach was not too far off the mark and the 2nd c/f obliged to cover stakes.

Investor,

I agree with Fulham that Adeimus was 1st on class / form with Pablo 2nd on class / form.

If Pablo hand`t been in the race I would have played strongly on Adeimus at 5/1.

As it was Pablo was a strong bet for me to beat Adeimus and I`m rather happy this afternoon.

My decision to go against the 1st on class / form worked today and I will continue to go against what I consider the 1st on class / form if I have a strong view.

*** hard lines Fulham but I`m sure your next winner is just around the corner.

Cheers,

Investor

Actually, on further reflection, I can see I've made a palpable error with Adiemus, and you are correct.


Determined

Thanks. In fact I had to wait a whole 15 minutes. Not a VDW bet, but a decent arb. on a horse whose name I would hesitate to try to pronounce, courtesy of John McCrirrick and Tanya on the Morning Line. Betting shops used to be described as a licence to print money. For the present at least, what most certainly is such a licence is the combination of guaranteed early bookmakers' prices and the ability to lay at markedly lower prices on Betfair.

Determined
I'm not disputing the class/form element,It is what the horse had done or not not done prior to today's race.as we know adiemus was campaigned much the same way as last yearon the run up to the winter derby at Lingfield 2002 he had shown good consistent form,And was worthy of support if adiemus had won the winter derby this year,I too would have been on.

FULHAM
Adiemus didn't disappoint. He ran exactly the race his previous form suggested he would. He needs further.

Johnd
i totally agree with your last post.

determined, fulham, you were on the right horse in the lincoln,?... what are the reasons for leaving adiemus, bar from being more effective on the all weather, again in consistency terms pablo, was not featured to balance this with the class/form mode, why was this overlooked? thanks..grundy

Grundy

Consider Adiemus's last two runs being careful (unlike me earlier today) to be accurate re the weights he carried relative to Parasol. Would you regard the last run as showing constant/improving form, or a downturn?

As regards consistency, as demonstrated in the figures I posted for Statajack a few weeks ago, not having one of the lowest consistency ratings does not preclude selection.

I should perhaps add that I am making an as yet inadequately researched assumption about when VDW factored going into his assessments. I've taken the view that with horses like Mini Sensation and, today, Dumaran, which seemingly only perform to their best on very particular going, that that should be factored in at the class/form stage, like weight, rather than being left to when weighing up a c/f from the capability perspective. If as a matter of technique this is wrong, then of course a case of sorts could be made for regarding Dumaran as the c/f (albeit one palpably not suited by conditions) and Pablo as the 2nd c/f.


Johnd/Investor

You may be right about distance, but Adiemus did, after all, run to within a head of winning the self-same race last year. I believe that, from a VDW perspective, there was a more basic problem today: he wasn't a form horse.

Years ago I used to have a friend who worked in Newmarket for G Huffer
We lost touch
Pity as we had some good weekends down newmarket
He left Huffer and worked for Gosden for a while
He then worked for Godolphin
The last time I saw him on the telly Brough Scott intervied him after Lamtarra won the Derby
If I had still been in contact with him I could have got the run down on Adiemus as he is now assistant trainer with Noseda or so my Nephew tells me
Why am I telling you all this ?
His name is John D.... and he comes from Doncaster

You aint his dad are you?

Fulham.

I except you believe weight makes a difference, but are you taking it too literally? With the 9lb pull you are saying Adiemus should have reversed the form with Parasol. That is leaving nothing for improvement on Parasol's form, after all he had had only 1 run on the dirt. Against a proven, fit, and a year older horse. Add to this he had just run his fastest time for 10f. so to say he wasn't in form? I think it was the distance, agreed he was only beaten head in last years race. His form is stronger over 10f, and was taking on better milers than last year.

While I can see the horse doesn't have to be the lowest on consistency. Surely he has to be consistent, beaten 20 lengths when 14th of 18 in a much lower class than today, is a bit short of the mark. Didn't VDW point this out with his c/form examples on that Boxing day?

Be Lucky

Fulham
I'm going to have a really good look at adiemus,After your comments that he wasn't a form horse and try and understand why,You are a lot more positive with your posts now,But i can't understand how you get adiemus out of form,The distance is a problem without a doubt and the numerical picture(s) didn't look good,Is this the reason you say he wasn't a form horse.

Mtoto

Most of VDW's selections had a consistency rating of 12 or less, but 13 is hardly too far out of the range.

As regards weight, I think it is impossible to be SURE whether, in any particular instance, that explains a result or whether other factors do, and it could for example be that both Adiemus and Parasol demonstrated improvement in their second race against each other but Parasol's improvement was the greater. But, not knowing the truth of any particular situation (and indeed being convinced that it isn't knowable), I'm buying in to an approach that seems to have the virtue of working consistently. To the extent that I think I understand that approach (which will probably turn out to be far less than I currently believe/hope), weight is central and, I think, VDW would have regarded Adiemus's last run as a down turn. Given that I am trying to follow that approach, it is particularly galling to make a careless error.


Investor

No. If I am right, it is because Adiemus ran less well relative to Parasol in his last race than in the one before. This might mean that both horses had shown improvement following their first meeting, but Parasol had improved the more, or it might mean that Adiemus had shown a downturn in form. I THINK (but could, of course, be wrong) that VDW would have taken the latter view, and if he had, in the context of today's race that would have meant Adiemus was not a form horse.

[This message was edited by Fulham on March 22, 2003 at 10:18 PM.]

Adiemeus

Fastest Sf of his Career 117 according to raceform
A downturn?

Fastest run of em all on turf over last 3 runs Pablo 115

fulham
Held up,Headway 2f out,Driven and ran on well final furlong,Just failed,With an improving s/f.Sorry my friend but i can't see that being classed as out of form.I'm inclined to share the view that the distance beat the horse,Having said that if he'd have won the winter derrby i would have backed him today,it all goes back to odds and temperement if you know what i mean.

BOOZER
Couldn't say, do you know his mum?

Fulham
This may grate, but I will show you why you are wrong about Adiemus, and also, ( In my not so humble opinion ), why you are wrong about the way VDW read form.
In last years Lincoln, a lower class race, on slower ground, his form reads;

Gd hdwy 2 out, rdn to chase wnr ent last, styd on wl, jst failed.
In his last race, a higher class race, ( Though not the a/r way ), over a sharp 10f, his form reads;

Hdwy 2 out, drvn & rn on wl fnl f, jst failed.
In this higher class race, he gave every indication that even this fast run 10f was below his optimum.
The final proof is in today's running, his form reads;

O'pcd 3 out, rdn & hdwy when nt clr run wl ovr 1 out, kpt on, not reach leaders.

You will also find that the same process comes to the same conclusion in the recently discussed race of Baronets'.
This interpretation is based entirely on what VDW wrote on S.I.A.O., and is done in exactly the way he suggested. It is entirely based upon that perception, and does work repeatedly.
Your, ( And others'), idea of the method is, conversely, based upon supposition and innuendo, and you still have difficulty making it fit.
As I have said before, it is difficult to change ones' beliefs, particularly when they are ingrained by years of research to support them, but, hopefully, the above will prove of benefit to some who are not altogether intransigent.