Imtyaz is without a doubt the class horse in the
race, but being the cynical sod that I am, why is a horse capable of running so well in a Group One
now running in a listed race, and with a tongue
tie? Remember the quote the class horse will
usually win WHEN THE PRIZE IS BIG ENOUGH.

Another conundrum..... Why did the trainer of Border Subject, a horse who didn't quite get home in the Wokingham, and was killed off by a very
fast pace from a poor draw in the Stewards Cup,
then run him over 7 furlongs, and at York?

Just a different way of looking at things.

Regards

Johnd

johnd,

in a similar vein, following on from horses which looked good things and I backed and then they performed somewhat unusually.

today i find needwood blade.

I really do wonder if some trainers ever want to get them into listed class.

in scots veiws race I have a couple that are a bit better than him.I will be watching very closely the saddlers wells colt(mothers side),navado, as we all know the first four places in the derby were filled by colts from this sire and they are pretty good at 1m4f. considering he has never even tried this distance, I would expect to see big improvement today.

i think you,ve hit the nail on the head r.e your comment on imtiyaz,think about this quote..if form is studied more in depth,it may be found that a great deal of it is just an illusion,form combined with ability in better class events is a force to be reckoned with..obviously it does,nt stop there,but hopefully it will give you something to think about.

in a recent post to mtoto you said,"pegwell bay comes to mind where the selection was not c/f horse,but there was good grounds for taking on the c/f horse with 2nd and 3rd c/f" in the actual piece vdw gives clear indication as to which horse is c/f it has been said many times before a selection does,nt have to be top on ability,which i,m sure you already know.he (vdw) gives clear reasons why townley stone would have been slung out,also ratings did,nt support t.s at least one set anyway

Investor

My comment to Mtoto was made when I was operating on an inadequate hypothesis about how VDW identified "form" horses.

Its a long time since I assumed that a horse had to be top rated on ability to be the class/form horse.

i apologise if i offended you,it was,nt meant.judging by what you say i.e " inadequate hypothesis" it is very recent that you have realised,do you now consider you have a better understanding of how he (vdw) ticked with regard form,it may seem an odd question but if you,ve been studying vdw for a good while,and have just realised that it must be one hell of a kick in the teeth

3.45 Lingfield 7f D 49 Handicap

Top 6 in f/c(with ability ratings)

Goodenough Mover(36)
Fortune Point(38)
Definite Guest(30)
Jedeydd(56)
Material Witness(69)
Taranaki(49)
White Emir(39)

Goodenough Mover has to improve on anything he has done before(6 wins up to class 41) to win this and seems very short priced considering. Is it good form, but I oppose.

Material Witness comes out best on ability, but has a 2/33 win record, which is off-putting, and his wins have come on soft and good/soft. Drawn 4 out of 16, which is unlikely to help.

By my reckoning the best two are

Jedeydd and Taranaki

I favour Taranaki on the basis that his recent winning form was in a slightly better event (class 85, top rated 86 - Jedeydd class 75, top rated 76). Taranaki has a 5/25 win record which is pretty good, and is well drawn in stall 16.

Rob

Investor

I'm obviously posting in a prickly way, which I certainly don't intend, as several people have apologised - quite unnecessarily - recently!

As to your substantive point, not at all. The occasion of moving to a potentially better equipped position is one for celebration rather than regret that one didn't get there earlier.

good for you mate,i hope everything works out well for you

well that was great to watch,unfortunately that,s all i did,still i don,t think s.v could be backed logically,although crosschecks showed he had a very good chance,the weight was a definate no no even though it was a shorter distance,not to dissapointed really,imtiyaz i am dissapointed with,but who would have backed binary file from a logical point of view,not me

Was posted by Dante on two threads in two different fora.

a very well done to dante then,if i,d have seen it through a crystal ball,i still would,nt have backed it from a vdw point of view

Fine, but would you have backed it from a non-VDW view point? There are after all other ways to successfully select winners.

a very well done to dante then,if i,d have seen it through a crystal ball,i still would,nt have backed it from a logical or vdw point of view

i,m sorry the same post appeared twice,in answer to your question no i would,nt have considered binary file,maybe six months ago i might have,but this thread has opened my eyes,to a certain thing called class and form,i did,nt think b.f had the right credentials compared to others in the field,i was wrong,but if the race was due off in ten minutes time,i would still have backed imtiyaz

I cant see the races here but could someone hazard an opinion on the Imtiyaz cock-up? Reading the commentary I would say either it didnt stay (which seems unlikely) or wasnt fit.

Thanks for the reply. I didn't back Binary File either but then again neither did I back Imtiyaz. It didn't look like a betting race to me.

post mortem,

Imitiyaz, at this leval, is a 1m 2f horse he was sent to chantilly in 1m 1f race and couldn't reproduce his 1m 2f form on that much faster track.

there is always going to be distance requirement change from 2-3 and 3-4 sometimes even 4-5 as they get stronger and more muscular.

Imitiayaz had shown that his was 1m2 on a fair track he might be 1m1 on a very stiff track.

A few of the other runners could be discounted on that alone.

The winner had shown he was a miler at three and then he came out at a mile, why?we should expect him to need further, he was then dropped to 7f, why? he needs further. his last race was a very good performance considering where reel buddy has been and he showed speed and kept on at the end- gas left in the tank.

I never checked this race out this morning and without knowing the result would probably not have looked at this horse in that much detail as he was not ability etc although he was a form horse.

that is why VDW told us to give every runner the same attention, as instructed in the roushayd example.

JIB.

I think one of the reasons Imtiyaz was beaten today was fitness. I know he has won first time out, but what did he have to beat? Also winning a 3 horse race doesn't necessarily make a horse a true Limited A class horse. I must admit I was a little surprised Guest put him up.

Rob,

Goodenough Mover, you say he had never won a 49 class race, fair enough. If you look this is also a 85 D handicap he had won one of those.

Scott's View.

Although the penalty value was the same (190) this was a much weaker race than Saturday. The highest class horse SV had to beat today was Navado OR 89. The lowest rated on Saturday was rated 92. Can anyone explain how they make these races the same class?

Just to show I'm not that clever I had one bet today, it lost Vita Spericolata.

Be Lucky

Barney,
It could have been pro punters money or it
could have been off course bookies like Ladbrokes
that were trying to bring the price down or keep
the price down.Or it could have been business
men who fancy themselves as pro punters.
There are some people who have more money than
sense who don`t have to work for a living.
I don`t think you should assume it was pro
punters although it could have been.
No way of telling for sure.