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Determined,
With the s/f now shown in the RFU you leave them alone, they don't factor weight in the calculation at all. The old s/f was the problem, it did include weight. VDW said you don't adjust for the weight carried in the race you are looking at on the day. However weight had been use to calculate the original figure. i.e. 2 horse dead heat they should be awarded the same figure, if one carried 7lbs less than the other his s/f was 7 points less. In this scenario I used to bring both horses to 9st. If you are not going to use weight at one end, why use it at all?  Be Lucky |
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Alex Bird
I'm afraid Mr Ed is only partially correct regarding Alex Bird true he did make a LOT of money betting on the outcome of photo finishes when they were first introduced. Back then it took a long time for the print to be developed. He stumbled on the idea by accident when he was late back from the paddock and lost his usual spot on the racetrack. From an elevated position he found that often two horses passing the post close together would cause an optical illusion and after trying different spots and closing one eye and keeping his head still he could accurately predict the outcome of a photo finish he claimed that he had won 500 consecutive bets by this method and it has been estimated that he won £750,000. But that is not all Alex was famous for he also had great success in the Grand National a race very dear to his heart. He noted good jumpers often following them from Novices and backing them big he won £70,000 when Freebooter took the 1950 Grand National. Alex also had great success as an owner in 1952 he won £50,000 on his own horse Signification. In the same year he won the Ayr Gold Cup with his horse Vatellus. He had the idea that the stands side was by far the best and bought several lengths of clothes line to the track to measure if he was right and when he gave the jockey his instructions three other jockeys followed him and finished 2nd,3rd and 4th from that day on the stands side was known as the Alex Bird side in the jockey room. Alex was a great follower of time and followed horses, mainly two and three year olds that had shown a good time. He became a keen student of the stopwatch and as with everything he did became very good at identifying horse to follow from the times they recorded on the race track. Even from his youth he never neglected the Form book his father would often catch him as a boy studying the form books late at night. One of his first methods was to back the second favourite in two year old races each way this is what he called stealing money from the bookies it was not long before the bookies started to close down his accounts. As you can see Alex Bird used several successful methods to find winners. M.o.M |
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The Vital Spark Member  |
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BOOZER/JIB
Phil Bull specialised in judging races by the stopwatch, Alex Bird specialised, at different times, in backing 2nd favs e.w., betting on photo finishes, planning coups, etc. Both were very good at what they did, although, without doubt, self publicists. VDW's understanding of how to read form, how to judge class, the real importance of consistency, and consequently how to bind then all together, and significantly reduce the odds against backing losers, gave a far more comprehensive understanding of how racing works to myself, and many others, than the collective works of all the others. VDW was, by nature, a recluse, and therefore not in the public eye, which he is why is often the subject of ridicule to this day. Ask yourselves this question; How many fora are dedicated to the work of the other two, how many times do their names appear in Raceform Update, and then ask yourselves why? I was around when AB and PB were still active, and read many articles about them in the press at that time, VDW was unknown, yet still has many more people dedicated to his work than they. There is nothing wrong with specialising, each to his own, but I know where my £10k would go, and I'd give odds. |
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The Vital Spark Member |
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Alex Bird
There you have it then boys, 2nd Favs. EW in 2YO races. Fill your boots!! Who needs VDW. Bet I know one in the room with a question though. |
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Fulham
Very interesting. Illustrator's 3 races were rated by TS as follows 07.02.02 Haydock (7f) going g/f carrying 9-0 - 26 15.10.02 Leicester (8f) going sft carrying 9-0 -40 26.10.02 Doncaster (8f) going sft carrying 9-0 - 47 The RP race summary for the Doncaster race read quote: If Split Second has factored in the going it may be in the wrong direction. Chief Yeoman had a highest TS of 42 on g/f carrying 9-0 at Sandown on 18.09.02 over 8f, beaten 0.5l, the race time recorded by the RP as 1.45.08 (slow by 6.38s) Back In Action had a highest TS of 48 on g/s carrying 8-11 at Newmarket on 02.11.02 over 7f, beaten 3l, the race time recorded by the RP as 1.28.57 (slow by 6.37s) Theatre Time had a highest TS of 44 on g/f carrying 8-8 at Newbury on 16.08.02 over 7f, beaten over 8l, the race time recorded by the RP as 1.26.61 (slow by 3.41s). This was his first run. His next 2 runs were:- Epsom 11.09.02 over 8.5f on good carrying 9-0, beaten 5l by Bahamian Dancer, no TS recorded. Race time recorded by the RP as 1.50.82 (slow by 9.82s) Haydock 28.09.02 over 7f on g/f carrying 9-0, beaten 1.5l, TS 17. Race time recorded by the RP as 1.30.93 (slow by 4.23s) Not an improving profile. Have just lost all connection to the RP site so no comments on Wondrous Joy and Bravo Dancer. Maybe later. |
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Mtoto,
Thanks. |
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Arowson
Back in Action's highest SS rating (adjusted to 9 st) was 97 on 2/11/02; Bravo Dancer: 96 on 5/10/02; Chief Yeoman: 99 on 18/9/02; Illustrator: 110 on 26/12/02; Theatre Time: 99 on 28/9/02. Not easy to reconcile the two sets of ratings. |
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Mr Ed
I think you missed the point. John In Brazil Your welcome. I have always been an avid reader of biographies be it about racing or not but if you are interested I can recommend three books straight away; Martin Pipe The Champion Trainers Story written by Richard Pitman this book has been mentioned on this thread before and is an excellent book I could not put it down! Alex Bird The Life And Secrets Of A Professional Punter by Terry Manners a fascinating insight into this man. The High Rollers Of The Turf (Millennium Edition) by Raymond Smith this books highlights all of the legends of the sport of kings from the raise and fall of Terry Ramsden to the likes of JP McManus and Barney Curley great read. M.o.M |
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JIB,
I think as Johnd said, VDW tried to explain, and show the important thing is to find the class horses that are in form. Not rocket science, but many of the brilliant ideas are simple. Good as the people are you have mentioned, I don't think they ever went into detail on this point. Perhaps Mr Bull did, but most just follow his ratings. As you say a simple mind may compare the consistency rating with Holt's rating. VDW explained the c/rating doesn't stand alone. This can also apply to Holt's rating, but many unfortunately don't/can't look beyond the bare rating. As you well know 2 wins doesn't mean a horse has the class to win a race, if the horse is raised in class, or the conditions are against it. Of the modern pundits I think N Mordin, and Alan Potts go a little way to explain about class and form. Mordin seems to have borrowed many of his ideas from other people, and used them to his advantage. I feel they are a fair way behind VDW, If only because shared his ideas for free. I do wish he had gone into a little more detail at times, so less misinterpretation could happen. Mr e d, Sorry, but I think it's are too late to jump on the 2nd favourite's bandwagon. The bookies closed that stable door many years ago. If you could be bothered to ask questions, someone may have told you.  Be Lucky |
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JIB,
I wouldn’t pour scorn on Clive Holt or indeed anyone if they really make or have made a living from betting.VDW did make the distinction between a cabinet maker and a joiner,didn't he? I am suspicious of "professionals" who start running tipping services however. To me at least, it casts doubt on whether their personal betting is as successful as they claim.In some instances I might be wrong and they are just taking a profit (income) where they see it. I was sceptical of Alan Potts when he joined Mark Holders tipping service, particularly having read his books in which he seemed very dismissive of mug punters.However, subsequently I was also a member(although not a contributor) to Smartsig and I couldn’t help but be impressed by Alan Potts’ willingness to help and also his depth of knowledge.,particularly about race conditions.Very much a professional I would have said.I couldn’t say what his tips were like though. Getting back to Clive Holt, I agree his Fineform selection formula does seem very VDW based. What was interesting for me was that in one of his books he seems to pour scorn on Stewart Simpson and even seems to question (horror of horrors) if he was a real person. He seems to disbelieve his strike rate (66% approx if memory serves me) and ridicules his staking arrangement ,yet makes no mention of VDW and his 85-90% s/r and retrieval staking plan. All that despite the fact that VDW must have had more mention than Stewart Simpson over the years on Sports Forum. I thought that was very strange. All the best. |
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The Vital Spark Member |
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Stewart simpsons staking plan is not to be sniffed at
His staking plan double the bank double the stake got me to where I am now Not that far But out of a council house and into my own property Also I used class ratings based on Prizemoney before VDW wrote a word And I aint that old |
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Going back to Alex Bird
Did he not take on a Partner and teach him his methods does that same man who came from a council house and drove a beat up VW (not VDW) beetle now live in a mansion and drive a roller?? Or have I dreamnt it Good Post JIB I can see you may be come a convert yet  |
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The Vital Spark Member |
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JIB
I have both books, they're yours if you want them. |
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Some interesting and amusing thoughts tonight. I must confess that I find it somewhat amusing when Alex Bird is held up as some kind of paragon of betting, this a man that had to give up punting when 4% tax was introduced!
JIB, You seem to run away with the idea that followers of VDW think there is no other way to profit from betting, nothing could be further from the truth. I don't think anybody has ever suggested that. Quite how you can maintain that VDW's ideas are flawed whilst promoting the virtues of Steve Roman's dosage theory is quite beyond me, the dosage theory is one of the most flawed in racing. I can accept that it may have some use when assessing 2YO's or early season 3YO's when tackling a new trip for the first time but the followers of VDW prefer FACT not theory. Your main 'flaw' around the methods of VDW would appear to rest with his ability ratings, may I tactfully suggest that this is purely because you are unable to grasp quite how VDW used his ability ratings. In the 25 years plus that I've been betting and in my other 'life' as a dealer in British & American racing literature, I have been fortunate to read most available books from all the top US (and the few) UK authors. I can say, hand on heart, that the writings of VDW are the best available PROVIDING ONE GAINS A COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING. I stress the last part because I too bought and discarded all the VDW material many years ago because I initially failed to grasp exactly how he worked. I was betting full time very succesfully 15/20 years ago (and owning 'legs'of horses), long before I had even begun to master VDW, so yes of course it is possible to bet profitably with many other methods. The fact that VDW did not seek to use his knowledge for tipping or self glorification as other have tried, does not in any way detract from the simplicity and profitability of his teachings. Other authors like Alan Potts in the UK or Andrew Beyer, Len Ragozin, Tom Ainslie etc in America could only go so far in their teachings because it would impact on their own profitability as Beyer soon found out when he first started writing. What sets VDW apart (IMO) is that he was able to convey his thoughts in such a way that he could be far more open, knowing that only those that spent countless hours with the form books would be be able to grasp the significance of his writings. That last part should never be underestimated. I don't believe that anybody will ever uncover his methods for themselves without recourse to many hundreds of hours with the form books of the time. Certain contributors to this thread (like Guest) have tried to give as broad hints as they are able but without those form books it's a complete non starter. Fortunately few people will ever devote the necessary time and that should ensure the future profitability  |
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Crock - I have to say I agree with virtually all you say in your last post. The point that often gets overlooked with VDW is that he didn't seek to profit from the sale of his ideas choosing instead to offer them for free. And he did this in such a clever way as to insure the future unexposure of the approach by putting things across as pieces of a puzzle for us to digest and hopefully solve and put together.
I have commented on the so called pros in the past, in fact I personally know a few of the more well known ones. Whilst most of those who charge for tips or run lines and services are just feeding their own betting banks with other peoples cash, there are others who don't seek to do that. Some just enjoy the limelight and proving their theories to the public. No real harm in that, but it does go some way to explaining just why VDW was so well received. He didn't ask for anything in return, but went out of his way to try and educate through compelling articles. He was more concerned with an interested punter helping themselves rather than proving to people that he knew the next winner and wasn't he clever. I also agreed with Crocks comments on the ability rating. It is of no use unless you know how to implement it. It's a bit like the weight issue. In theory one would think that taking a few pounds in weight off a half ton of horseflesh or putting it on would make no difference to the animal. But, in practice and under race conditions, it does make a difference depending upon the quality of race and opposition. This is why I say statistics involving weight increases or decreases are meaningless unless everything else is taken into account. |
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