MAX
Have given it a quick scan, need more time to check and assimilate. Many thanks.
BOOZER
Thanks for the input.
Gummy won't let me join until I,ve learnt how to type.

Johnd.

Mtoto - I use various basic methods or avenues of investigation, but the method use to establish class and form remains the same. Lunar Leo could be described as unexposed, but given that only one of the consistent horses posed a threat it was easy to take the course of action I did.

Boozer - Whilst I would never imagine a 3 grand amateurs race to be a 12 grand handicap as it's only worth viewing things as they actually are, I do agree that Red Lion was the class/form horse and Castleshane was 2nd on class/form. Given the circumstances surrounding Mondays Amateur Derby it was reasonable to expect a bit more from the stablemate ie first run, much better support in the market, but also the Bath race was a better race horse wise. The result today was no surprise, but not a race I would bet in. As VDW said, you often have to sit out a lot of winners but there is a very good reason for this.

Guest,
Firstly many thanks for your efforts in the last few months. Whereas I wouldn't claim to have "seen the light" as you put it your posts in particular and those of others have taken me a long way towards that goal.My interest in VDW started many years ago and having acquired the books failed to find a way thru but I held onto them and they together with postings on this thread are pointing me in the right direction - just as VDW intended.
Like all novices it will be difficult to know when I've seen the light but in the near future when family committments allow I will post a pre- race review for comment - i spend my available time at present reviewing recent races put up.
While posting I would also like to thank Statajack,Fulham,Chaz Lee and Mtoto amd others for their informative posts - their efforts are not lost on me as I'm sure they aren't on others.

Thanks Again.

The pieman said "this board has lost it`s appeal"

What he really meant was nobody was buying his pies.

Instead of doing the decent thing and pi$$ing off, he`s come back and now selling selling tripe pies.

No matter what you wish to learn on this thread, and much of it is good, you will get sick to death of tripe pies.

Guest,

Yet a/n good result. My congratulations.

If I could ask a question. Apologies to all those who feel this is a stupid one. I work on the basis that there is no such thing as a stupid question.

Which run puts LL in form, ie - the 21/06 Ascot 2nd or the 02/08 Gdwd 11th ?

In my opinion the answer is both.

The Ascot run on 21/06 certainly compared favourably with anything produced by todays opposition.

The Ascot run on 27/07 I feel can be safely ignored.

The 02/08 Gdwd run over that extra furlong in far higher class than today (wknd 1 out and no tongue tie) marked his card.

28 day break ( has regularly run well fresh ) and with tongue tie back on.

Added to that he was well placed on `ability`. Certainly a probable winner.


Inchdura, consistent and improving was certainly a big danger.

*** all in hindsight ***

Question no` 2 - what method was used ?

Thanks in anticipation,



THIS THREAD GETS BETTER AND BETTER. WELL DONE TO ALL THOSE WHO CONTRIBUTE.

Except for the pieman that is. You have to go a very long way north before you`ll find humans eating tripe.

My God
3 legs is back
I thought a couple of your legs had dropped off and you were floundering in the middle of the pavement a bit like the Peperami advert
Very funny 3 legs
No I mean it
But whats this north thing?
As they say there is one in every crowd
How come its always you

Its interesting to note that LL was a long way clear on ability and had the form from the ascot race over 7f while Inchdura also had a poor draw to contend with, but in the interests of objectivity I'd like to ask guest how he was so sure LL would handle Chester? I can only see a 6f win at warwick as a possible pointer.
regards,

Boozer (BZ)

I can`t help it, I was born that way. That`s my excuse and I`m sticking to it.

PS. Having been born in the Lancashire Infirmary, Ashton-Under-lyne 500 years ago, believe me I know what tripe tastes like, and it ain`t changed

111
.

yer back then,I bet they're all pleased on here.

Statajack - As you note Warwick has some things in common with Chester as also has the AW track at Lingfield.

Determined - The form was shown at Royal Ascot but the trainer waited for the right opportunity placing the horse out of reach of the prizes on offer. I'm glad you noted the absence.

LL was found using my interpretation of the unexposed method VDW used for Valiant Warrior,etc. Inchdura was found via the consistency method.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see what others make of Scotts View at Chester.

i bet that m.johnstone was well pissed off he didnt get into the big race the other week.

LUNAR LEO won because it had scored 87 in 29 B .
Not exactly difficult.
I cant believe you people.
Guest DID NOT NAME THE WINNER, he made a book, (or dutched, same thing)'
Why dont you crawl right up his bottom.
sWISH

My thoughts on todays race, let's see how they pan out;
Scotts View
Won cl 290 0=103 easily, weight,track and going against him lto.

Supplement
Highly tried, but has done litle to show he is up to this class or distance.

Court Shareef
Ran his best race for some time last time out in a very high class race. Signs are that this is not
his track/distance and he may be found wanting for pace

Mesmeric
Difficult to weigh up. Form on sharp tracks not inspiring so this raises a question of why he is running here. Appreaciable rain would make a difference.

Double Honour


Has run well in some good class races but recent form suggests todays conditions are far from ideal. Why is the trainer running him here?

Robe Chinoise

Nothing to suggest he is up to this class, and has a lot to find with Scotts View.

Summary;

Scotts View has a lot going for him here, and looks to have been placed in near ideal cicumstances so should be a good bet. A significant change in the going would maybe cause a rethink.

Cheers
Johnd

It would be a great help if you could actually name the course and time it ran at.
Not too difficult is it?
Then I can look up SCOTTS VIEW and tell you what I think,
Swish

Thanks for the reply.

The `unexposed` method VDW style is one I`ve not researched as yet.

The very fact that he used such a method pleases me, ie - I myself have had reasonable success down the years investing on `unexposed types`.I look forward to researching such examples. Once I`ve bottomed the others that is.

Scotts View,

I`ve not looked at any of todays racing as yet but I expect to find Scotts View a likely VDW bet today ?

Cheers,

Highest rated on `ability` plus very consistent.

1st Gdwd win showed his true class. Travelled so well against better opposition than he`d faced before.

Carries a penalty and masses of more actual wgt` just a few days later.

Forget the Sandown defeat.

Course, etc will suit. Improving horse against a field either exposed or yet with the form in the book.

OR make him the 2nd best horse in the race.

I could go on.

In my opinion this would be a VDW good thing.

If I`m wrong then I would of course fully apreciate been advise any oversight.

Question is,do I take the 15/8 on offer this morning ?

Good luck today,

determined,

it all depends on how upset mr.johnston is, he was very dissapointed at not getting in the ebor and could well spit the dummy out.

the way i see it court shareef has been upped in class since beating an inform c/f horse and has performed well at a higher leval since although not with this weight

however if scotts view had got into the ebor i think he would have reversed placings with CS

no such weight issues with SV.

SV ( improving ) against CS ( exposed with a very poor win to run ratio ).

I may look a fool later on but I cannot see CS troubling SV today.

SV is up in class and off his highest ever OR today.

That would normally be a concern but all except Double Honour are up in class.

SV remains a good thing.

Cheers,

Swish - Did you get out of the wrong side this morning ?

Surely it's not too difficult to see where a high profile horse is actually running and to give you a clue I did say Chester. But of course what I often actually type into the message box somehow fails to be seen by some. Perhaps I didn't spell the names Lunar Leo and Inchdura very well. I purposely don't list reams of possibles and maybes down and across the cards, one reason being to avoid confusion unlike some I might add.

Cheer up and have a good day old boy !