fulham,

if we are going to nitpick, IT takes a big stretch of the imagination and shows a lack of understanding of both form and the numbers game, to come to the conclusion that kutub was the c/f horse.

post one race on here instead of a more private forum and then we can see how you will cope with abuse derogatory remarks and the like.

A vdw method selection that is not a bastardised version.

I have corresponded to both of you on a personal basis and I know that you are both very knowledgable about horse racing in general.

With regards VDW, again you are both well ahead of me in this field and will remain so for some considerable time.

I`ve never been good at the `cryptic` so my chances of reaching a full understanding may never happen.

You two having a difference of opinion is between the 2 of you but lets not stoop to the levels of others on this thread.

Lets think ahead and concentrate on today.

Some questions for us all to consider,

- is Tobougg in form ?

- will the distance stop Esloob winning ?

- who is the class/form horse in the 2.30 Newbury

- Finished Article; consistent but a false fav ?

- is Green Line in form ?

An interesting day for us to get our teeth into.

Good luck,

For me Tobougg is not a bet.
In the 2:30 Mugharreb looks like a bet.

Mugharreb is a horse I like and if reproducing his debut run he`ll take some beating.

2 notes of caution. He needs fast ground and a fast pace.

Heavy rain forecast and where will the pace come from ?

Cheers,

in the truth hurty

there is a classic roushayd type example and its not mugareb.

Also vision of night is the c/f horse as determined by the vdw numbers game and the mtoto method and that wont win either.

I agree that Indian Country marked his card at Ascot where he had both Vision Of night and Mugharreb behind.

He was 50/1 on tha day. Did he surprise the trainer ?

That said , FORM NEVER CHANGES.

Have I just made myself look a plonker or am I on the right lines ?

** just one example where the ability rating in the case of IC doesn`t mean a thing ! **

Barney

Hardly nitpicking, we are, after all, referring to the unrevealed heart of the VDW approach. And your comment re Kutub merely confirms.

Best of luck today.

if i remember correctly i highlighted indian county last time he was nowhere near a 50/1 shot, more like 6/1.

i expect he ran as the trainer and some vdw students thought he would.

every race has a different problem to solve and this is no exception.

the ground as you say could well knacker it all up

fulham,

i would hardly say the heart is unrevealed by vdw.

the selections without SF and OR show the ultimate balance when appraoched in the right way.

so what if i get it wrong every now and then, you will never be wrong, neither would i if i didnt post anything.

determined,

toboug is out of form, however, there is a horse in that race that is particularly effective over this trip.

Postmark as a class indicator.

3:00 Newbury

Circle the form - all of them bar no3
Post mark - no4 no2 and no 7
Forecast - no4 6/4 no2 7/4 and no7 8/1.

14% profit

Personally I would also dutch the rest at 10/1 the field in a separate bank. Can't lose !

Foreign Affairs is very effective at the trip in top class h`caps and is a horse who will be placed to win Listed / Group 3 races at the very least this season.

It could start today but the his price certainly doesn`t represent any value even with an out of form Tobougg n the race.

The bare ability ratings suggest a 2 horse race however a close inspection of Highdown`s form (Ascot race form has proved to be excellent) puts him in with a chance also.

A race to watch in my opinion,

Cheers,

determined,

its a one horse race not two.

esloob will get the trip, they will walk to the first corner so in effect it will be a 1 mile sprint.If i was jimmy quinn i would be looking forward to a big performance.

Foreign Affairs it is then ?

Esloob should improve at the trip.

Guest.

Another little miss understanding, the point I was trying to make, is as you say. If the two horses were really of the same class there wouldn't be a big difference in the weights in a handicap. Thought that was what I said.

When I said Sea Pigeon was the class form horse, I did of course mean based on my thinking. I do think you are a little misleading when you suggest both SP and BL were also ran in the Champion Hurdle the year before. SP was right there at the last, BL as dead 2 out. Also the statement BL had achieved more than SP in his career to date, SP had won the Scottish Champion Hurdle, and that was before it was changed to a handicap.

About the lack of speed figures for the Irish horses, there is nothing to stop anyone working them out for themselves. If you don't want to go to that trouble you just use the ones available. I do agree a slow race doesn't show the lack of ability, but by the same token a good horse will always record a decent figure somewhere a long the line. I will be very surprised if you can show me a recognised top horse who hasn't. I haven't ignored anything vdw said, the weight situation I have just adapted. I know he said every horse has it's weight limit. For what ever reason he is wrong about where the winners come from in the handicap, so I changed it to every horse has it's class limit. I have seen many horses that can carry more and more weight, but can't go through the class barrier.

Epiglotis.

I thought I had answered one of your questions in my answer to Lee

Barney.

I wish I had the confidence of youth. With everything so clear cut. While you talk about bastardised methods, what do you use as the independent ratings. VDW suggested these where applied to ever horse?

Determined

I agree with your summing up of the 3-00 Newbury. Although I don't understand why Finished Article is a false favourite.

Have a good one, with plenty of winners

I did put a ? against whether Finished Article was a false favourite or not ( just in case one of the experts and yes you are one ) questioned the fact.

A weak race this year with only 4 of the horses within your filter. Of the 4 Smirk and Forbearing would appear to have factors against.

F. Article`s 2nd last time looks good at face value but he merely ran on through beaten horses who`d gone far too fast early on.

Calcutta is in form and should come out on top from these 4 but the race is too tricky for me.

*** I`d be very interested in your thoughts on the 1.00 Warwick. There`s alot more to come from Little Edward but he`s up against faster horses today. Compton Dynamo looks interesting ***

Cheers,

mtoto,

i am not afraid of being wrong or of saying how i see it.

vdw said he made his own ratings,but then denegrated them by saying any old thing will do.

i base my selections on the 2 inescapable facts and then build on this platform

good thing = coastal bluff

Coastal Bluff used to be owned by an old friend of mine when winning the Stewards & Ayr Gold Cup`s.

I think all the bookies in Harrogate are still hurting. Them were the days.

His last run cetainly suggests he`s ready to run a big race today but whilst he may win he`s no `good thing`.

Good luck if you play,

Mtoto - When I first looked at Prominent Kings race, quite a few years ago now, I much like yourself immediately noticed some of the very high speed figures attained by both Beacon Light and Prominent King. But after time and much more in depth research, I realised that whilst speed figures are useful to confirm other findings they are not the missing link and are not enough on their own, in fact no single factor is. I'm sure you already appreciate that last point.

I do agree with your point about all good horses showing a decent speed figure at some stage, but not many continually attain it, but they still find their way into the winners enclosure when they have the superior class and form relative to their field. Prominent King gained his impressive figure in the 76 Triumph at Cheltenham when running on very strongly in the closing stages against good horses. Regardless of the time, it was a good performance confirming the earlier impression that he was a very good novice hurdler. His 5yo career was a let down though with only one fair run coming in the 77 running of the Irish Champion. He returned in 78 with 2 runs where he showed improvement on his previous season and faced a stiff task (according to VDWs way of evaluating form and class) giving lumps of weight to Drumgora who was coming there in form and form shown in good class. Drumgora had also proved himself a good novice the previous season and the handicapper was unlikely to have his hold on such a young improver at that stage. It is fair to say though that he wasn't far wrong with Prominent King in his 3rd season.

Sea Pigeon had achieved better victories than PK and Drumgora, but not Beacon Light and here is where VDWs ideas really come into their own. In VDWs view, provided by the way he saw both class and form, Beacon Light should have had no problem beating Sea Pigeon on that day and in that event. But despite leading some way from home (surely a big advantage in a small field if you are supposedly the best horse) he gave way to the 2nd favourite. Married up with the facts Beacon Light had hardly been campaigned lightly for a top class race and it was only 2 weeks later and over a course he had never run on let alone won on, and the alarm bells should have veen ringing for the Leopardstown big race. All this could have been concluded without recourse to speed figures or ORs and in fact any ratings VDW suggested. This is because VDW only devised his ratings as a means to put things in a more numerical sense. For instance, with most older horses you could look at their win history and without performing the ability rating calculations you could tell the class animal. Putting things into a rating assists us because there are many form lines to investigate and an easy reference is needed to help equate and balance performances.

I`ve heard about this SEA PIGEON before, which track is it running at, is it to late for me to get some money on ?