does anyone have the handicap ratings for

canny danny
lean ar aghaidh
west tip
bold yeoman
little polvier

thanks in anticipation

I have the class/form horse as Logician.

Having put up it's best performance when upped in class on his second run of the season, now dropped in class and back to a more suitable distance.

This will carry my money

GET REAL!!!
Seriously this is a live danger to your selection,
Cheers
Swish

Don't know why but BETFAIR are only offering betting on EXETER,
Swish

Swish

I have Just Jasmine as the 2nd Class/form horse. Get Real was very disappointing all last season, and I don't see why he should return and win this.

JIB
I may bet both Tikram and Rob Leach in the 3.45.

Barney

I haven't got the data for Lucky Vane's race. Any chance of showing why Lucky Vane was rejected.

With hindsight I think the key point with Castle Prince was that although he had been running in a higher class, he hadn't been in contention to win, particularly on his last two runs, and for that reason VDW would probably have rejected him.

Rob

I will see if I can cobble something together.

If I was the owner of that horse I would want my money back off that trainer, he has well and truly F***** up his chances of winning a race running against good horses in small fields when its obviously not good enough. He might just be going for place and appearance money.

But basically as you say the class is an illusion.

its on pg 17 the ultimate wheel of fortune.

3.10 Ascot

Cons. Recent Ability
Class

Shamawan 13* 84 49
Just Jasmine 6* 164 83*
Logician 6* 206* 97*
Redemption 19 312* 57
Get Real 24 208* 108*

Note: I don't go along with the idea of ignoring F's P's U's etc. To win a jumps race a horse must stand up, so Fing and Uing isn't helpful! A P normally indicates an inability to keep up, so that's not great either. I do ignore S (slipped Up), C(carried out) and B (brought down).

Analysis

SHAMAWAN - even with his fal last time, still shows up well on consistency. However well down on recent class and ability. Has a lot to find.

JUST JASMINE - consistent in this sort of class. Shows up quite well on ability. Should be suited by the soft conditions (it's raining here, 8 miles from the track). Had plenty of similar chances last season, was suited by the way the race was run when winning at Cheltenham.

LOGICIAN - Shows up well in all three categories. However, has only won twice in Britain, a minor chase at Bangor and a cushy 67 at Wolverhmpton where he had a big class edge. He's one I'd be happy to oppose.

REDEMPTION - Has been running in the highest class events, his ability rating is not as high as others (although he did win this event last year) and his form tailed off last season. Chance if returning to form, but it's a big IF.

GET REAL - Highest on ability, but recent rorm as been poor and hasn't won since May 2000.

A lot of ifs and buts here. If pressed I'd go for Just Jasmine, in form and suited by the conditions, but with no great conviction.

Anybody got any thoughts?

Rob

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

The 3.10 at Ascot interests me. I make the race between Just Jasmine (C/F) and Redemption (2nd C/F).

Just Jasmine has only won once right handed and has a 0/4 record at Ascot but it's the C/F horse.

Redemption was outclassed in its last 2 races so looking further is actually in form and it has won a race of about this value FTO. It may not like the softer conditions but has won at Ascot something Just Jasmine has failed to do.

If push came to shove I'd pick Redemption though from the forecast odds a book could be made.

What are your thoughts?

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog

Just Jasmine is a form horse, right enough, but why do you make her the c/f rather than Logician?

Hedgehog

REDEMPTION shows up well on recent class, but his consistency rating indicates that he was out of his depth. His Abilty rating doesn't give much encouragement against the others.

Rob

on the numerical picture logician is the c/f

he is more than 3pts (14)clear of the next just jasmin.

He is in the 3 most consistent, if you count f,p's etc he is the most consistent joint with 2nd c/f, if you ignore fp's shamawan is most consistent.

For ratings fans he also has support

LTO

was lady cricket a canny danny and JJ a west tip?

was chicuelo a "wing and a prayer" and logician a "the haciendceros"

Barney

I agree that Logician is the class/form horse in the 3.10. However I don't consider him to be worth risking a bet as he has only won a couple of comparative 'egg and spoon' races in this country. He was 'all out' to win in class 67 at Wolverhampton, a race in which he had a clear class edge. He may still win, but I'm exercising 'temperament' in refraining from a bet.

Rob

P.S. As an aside, by the form I'm in, having rejected Logician it will scoot in but.....

I'm just glad youve not picked it, it would have put me right off. LOL.

If there is this degree of disagreement amongst those aiming to follow a common method I would suggest that there is no clear candidate and therefore no bet as far as this race goes. Does anything else need to be said about it? The only horse today that looks like a bet to me is Taming in the 2:05 at Ascot.

Ascot 3.45

-----------------Cons----R/Class----Ability
Deep Sunset--------9*------144*--------26
Tikram------------16-------134*--------63*
Hawadeth-----------7*-------56---------39
Idaho D'Ox--------22-------121---------41*
Colombian Green---13*-------52---------33
Rob Leach---------13*------123*-------127*

The class/form horse here would appear to be ROB LEACH. However, he was behind Colombian Green here first time out, and didn't jump well. His chance depends on him recovering his mid-season form from 01/02. Race conditions suggest no problem.

Deep Sunset - Low Ability rating and was found out when racing out of minor novice company.

Tikram - Aimed high last time, only win in a novice event at Doncaster(Jan '01).

Hawadeth - More competitive in a lower class, though normally runs a decent enough race.

Idaho D'Ox - Question marks over recent form, wins only in novice company.

Colombian Green - finished in front of Rob Leach here on seasonal debut. Has weakened in the straight in his last four races, which is not a good sign.

What do others think about this one?

Rob