and on Betfair

As Guest points out Monger Lane is the class/form horse, but her two wins were in mares only races, one against Tucacas in April this year at the same course. She is 9lbs worse off today from that race, and returning from a 213 day absence.

Tucacas has had a run this season and is now dropped in class having weakened 1f out over 16f carrying 10-11 as favourite. Today carries 11-12 and has performed well under big weights.

The horse that interests me here is one I mentioned the other week, Cill Churnain.

5th run this season.

Last 3 runs

08.09 Class 51 21.5f 10-12 Won 5/1
14.09 Class 59 20.0f 10-8 Won 2/1
02.11 Class 70 20.5f 11-7 2nd 13/2

Although up in class today, this horse has surely put in the hard work element, and carrying 10-10 today should feel it has wings.

Colourful Life doesn't look ready for the trip yet, having had one race this season and usually racing over 16f, but has won over 20f.

Noisetime is mobving up from Novice company after a 230 day absence.

Cill Churnain is certainly the most consistent horse this season, has produced improved performances whenever upped in class.

Does anyone agree that today it is the Winner In The Race?

Well done with todays winners.

Mr Todhunter gave a lovely speech in receipt of the trophy. Kingsmark will tread the same path as last year and he was very explicit in how he thought the ground had affected his chances at aintree.

Keen leader annihilated them, he wound it up round the turn, the faster he went his jumping just got better and better.

Thanks for pointing out the weakness of Adobe
no wonder they would go unidentified.

Cyfor Malta is doing my head in.

True VDW said that there are many small fish in the waters that he fished but he also said that there were the occasional big ones.

Should he not have been backed for the same reason as stray shot/zamandra, and a couple of todays runners and of course our old favourite prominent king?

I mean whats the point of going half way? (Tarxien)

also how many interpretations are there of "if the prize is big enough"

Epi
Your recent posts give the impression that you are beginning to analyse the minutiae, trust me,the path to the ultimate goal is not in this direction.

Regards
Johnd.

Barney - Being just the class/form horse is not enough, no matter how big the prize. All the other parts need to fit and there were doubts with Cyfor Malta. Don't fall into the trap of thinking every likely winner represents a good bet. What VDW was actually saying was that when the class/form horse has everything in favour AND the prize is big enough, it seldom fails to deliver.

Tarxien had much more going for it than Cyfor Malta or Chicuelo. As did Kingsmark today who has won a similiar event with 12-0 and of course goes well fresh and at Haydock. No Legal Right to give weight to today and the price was truly well over the real odds. Class told on the run-in.

I've said it before, and it really shouldn't need repeating, but if it was just a case of isolating what VDW referred to as the class/form horse then we would be having a bet in virtually every other race. The point is class/form horses don't win 80%+ of the time, far from it. They do however win very frequently when everything else lines up in support.

My one mistake today was with Over The Bar whom I gave too much benefit of the doubt over his last run, especially as he was up in class today.

Moto
What can I say............how about a luttuce leaf ??

111
.

Epiglotis


YOu won't be surprised that I take precisely the opposite view to Johnd. The advice to anyone wanting fully to understand VDW's approach has to be to study the VDW letters and articles, and most particularly the examples. The minutiae, as Johnd refers to it, is important - as Guest's recent response to Barney on Cyfor Malta again underlines.

Thank you both for the advice.

Whats suprises me most is that the angle I was coming from went unrecognised, as proven by dens joy at wolverhampton, another of the stray shot/zamandra/prominent king /cyfor malta types that should have been supported. From the examples as I have come to understand them, VDW would have hammered cyfor malta.

He was not afraid to go against the crowd.

Or did it? Today jr stevenson is the c/f horse and should be supported for exactly the same reasons, now, you can nit pick away at its form,
but that does not detract from the fact that this is the method that gives 85% winners year in year out over both codes. VDW would probably of found many other likely winners but this is the one he would have backed.

Epi,

In my opinion, for what its worth, the form is the most important thing from a VDW aspect.

Ater re-reading that I'm not sure if it comes across the way I meant it.

In any event I had better get my track suit bottoms on (for rapid removal) because of course if it loses I will really see my arse.

Barney

Good luck with your bet in the 2.35 Wolv. this afternoon. I am glad it is your backside and not mine that is on the line.

not satisfied with the hole I'm already in, I will dig deeper with Ivanoph and Jacdor

Barney,

Hasn't the fact that you knew the result clouded your view of the race? I made Cyfor Malta the c/form horse in the race, but was he at peak form? I could make a good case for him if I was sure he was. This is the problem of studying a race after the result, it is easy to make those small, but important decisions.

While I agree with Guest that being the c/form horse isn't enough by it's self. I do feel IF you have isolated a TRUE CLASS horse you are more than half way there. To me a class horse MUST have the tee shirt, not just be the best of a fair to poor bunch. I also wonder would it be of more use to concentrate on the more conventional methods VDW put forward? Some of these consistent/class horses win at very good prices. So don't run away with the idea they all have to be short priced favourites.

You mentioned form is the important thing, I think CLASS is the most important element in this, or any other walk of life. As a great man said Form is what they did - Class is were they did it.

Guest,

Congratulations on Kingsmark. Do you think class was the only element that came into it on the run in? Or was there a possible doubt about giving Chives too hard a race and/or a penalty for the Hennessy? I don't think 7lb would slow a 1000lb horse that much, (if at all) but it's what the trainers believes that matters.

I am having a lot of trouble with a couple of VDW's examples, Castle Warden is the main problem. VDW gave him as a c/form horse, I am having trouble making him a form horse.

Be Lucky

Barney

I think we can be certain that VDW would not have backed JR Stevenson today. Leaving aside the issue of whether he would take to the AW, JR was not a form horse. I have yet to come across a selection VDW named that was not a form horse - though it is true that I haven't yet looked at them all.

your right,

back to the drawing board,

not as far back as I used to have to go though.

Anyone remember this 1/2 million pound horse

first time out at 1/3 and then left in a race at top weight so that one of his other runners could go in at 25/1( rings a bell that). Subsequently banned from racing and then not seen again.

well he's out again at newton abbot tomorrow.

I wonder if david johnson him of cyfor malta, saver bet, fame will be on it?

Joley Bay could end up a nice price in this race

Magnus is the sort of Pipe horse that gets over
bet sometimes

For one last time, I would like to draw to your attention VDW's statement, "Once you find it, everything will be so clear you will wonder how on earth you could miss it, and you will have the same horses as myself".
Either you believe the above statement, or you don't, the choice is yours. If you choose not to believe the above, then this must bring into question the rest of his work, and the whole situation becomes a house of cards.
If, like me, you do believe the above statement, then their is a clear message in the above that you will have the same horses as he, clearly and un-equivocally, WITHOUT ANY MANIPULATION OR OBFUSCATION.
As I indicated recently, I considered myself in that situation, and everything I have seen since has re-inforced that view.
Last week, doing it my way, there were just 4 selections, but they all won. I am not prepared to elaborate on that, except to say that I am certain they were all pure VDW selections. I will, however, give 2 horses that the method indicated as likely winners, although, for reasons I am not prepared to divulge, they were not selections.
Rooster Booster, did not quite meet the criteria, but the method showed enough that it would have been crazy to back anything to beat him.
Today, the method showed Lygeton Lad as the probable winner, although not a bet. There were shades of Lean Ar Aghaidh in this one, as pro punter Dave Nevison on ATR, had 3 selections in the race, none of which won. Pro punter against VDW, no contest.
The point of the above is just to show their is another way, and I hope some will find this of benefit.

Fulham
While you are obviously deeply entrenched in your current position, and, having been there, and put in the hours, I can respect your defence of your standpoint, you may find it helps to also open up your mind to other possibilities.

Good luck to all

Johnd

Are you now betting again?