As Statajack `directly` reminded me earlier today speed figures are of value.

Dawn Invasion, a bet I am still comfortable with was not well placed in comparison to other 3yo`s in the race. That added to the closeness of the ability ratings should have been enough to tell me that at 11/8 DI was not value and yes I was going against the odds.

Mtoto posed a question today on the very same subject of speed figures.

Today really proved there worth.

Feet So Fast was very well placed on speed added to the fact that his form was very strong.

Also, compare the figures of Millenary and Simeon. Enough said.

Perhaps a little more, Spinette.

Cheers,


*** just for the record my illusion horse came third. What do i know ?

Hello everyone,

Spent yesterday evening catching up on a week or so of posts on this thread so i'm afraid I am a bit behind the times.

Barney

Your post about Son of love caught my eye.Partly because I didn't have it on my list of horses that VDW mentioned.Any chance you could point me to the letter where he referred to it? I've had a look today at Son of love's form and I'm obviously still missing something.Do you think a form reversal with Soleil Noir was expected or do you think VDW made a book? If Son of Love could be forgiven his run on soft ground then why not forgive Soleil Noir's performance over a seemingly inadequate 12f in the Gp1 Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud? I'm having flashbacks to Florida Pearl again.Not easy for me these form reversals.Any thoughts gratefully received.

Guest

Thank you for troubling to answer my two questions. As to yours, in my view the c/f did not win the race today, but neither was it a bet.

As a 3YO Simeon couldnt be discounted simply because he didnt figure in the top 4 for ability but its interesting to note that only one horse in the race had a lower speed figure. We all know the result so maybe, just maybe,in the light of this and Dawn Invasion's failure last night that well known charlatan VDW could actually be right about some things? Surely not.

M'tooto,
Surely a rhetorical question as according to your previous posts you use speed figures as one of the main ingredients in your selection method. I'm sure you are not about to change that on my account!

i was sure this horse was a good thing today,but after analyzing the race again,i think reef sis could well have been a roushard type, last three runs improving s/f finished third in class 290 over a mile with aldora finishing ninth,r.s was crying out for 7f i took the numerical picture at face value,A looked home and hosed ratings,ability consistent,until running over the wrong trip,did i lack temperement or should a book have been made,still live and learn

hi Bream,

I was asked to have a look at this horse and i assumed it was one of vdw's that I had not looked at.

After looking back through the golden years the only mention of it that I can find, I probably can't see for looking, is in letter 37.Whether or not Mr spiers remembers correctly is another thing.

Ignoring this factor and going back to the question there is a fundamental difference between its defeat in that race and the prix kergolav.In those cicumstances the form will always be reversed and its victory in the st leger was,on previous form,more comfortable than the winning margin suggests.I would like to say that it showed some improvement to get so close but it didn't even do that.

hope this helps

Evening Statajack.

Let me start by apologising for spelling your name wrong yet again. Funny how the eyes see, what the brain expects to see!

My question was not rhetorical, it was a serious question. If a good s/f can help to judge the ability of an unexposed 3 year old, why can the same principle not be applied to an older horse? I was hoping for some discussion on this point, with you, or anyone else, who may have some thoughts on the matter. Vdw used speed for at least 2 of his methods. I except he said speed by it's self is not enough, he also said form, ability, by themselves is not enough. Yes, I use speed, but not by it's self. I isolated 2 c/form horses today and neither was the fastest horse in the race. On another thread Spinnette is mentioned as a good bet today. Although she was the fastest horse, and the probable winner. She failed on my filters, so speed is not the be all for me.

Be Lucky

Barney

Son of Love was named by VDW as "a good thing" in respect of the 1979 St Leger in his article "Flying Dutchman believes in Consistency", item 30 of "The Golden Years".

something new?

every time i look at the golden years i find something new and revealing.

VDW before setting sail "round the world" didn't have time to direct Mr swann, but never the less gave him some good advice.

Fulham,

thanks for that i was beginning to wonder if it was a booby trap.LOL.

it certainly was a good thing but its not down to consistency ratings

I took Aldora each way as a bet to nothing,as I could not see it outside the first three,but I could not readily identify a danger,except something improving dramatically on the ground.I don't recall vdw reccommending each way betting,but it has some merit,I feel in a case like todays race,

pedantic,

vdw that is in his reply!

Fulham - In my view (which I hoped would have appeared slightly more clearly with the two questions posed last night) , Kutub was not a form horse, but Millenary was and was also the class/form horse. Study of the form showed todays race was not as strongly contested as it might of been and seeing as everything else was favourable for Millenary, I saw him as a good bet. Can I ask who did you view as the class/form horse ?

Mtoto - Unadjusted speed figures are a useful guide for all horses, but particularly for younger unexposed ones. Regardless of age though and speed , the form has to add up when compared to the rest of the field. There were clear signs in all of Millenarys last 3 runs that told a story relative to todays field.

Thanks Fulham,Son of Love.Item30.Completely missed it previously.

Barney,thanks yet again for trying to help.Your clues may well help but at this present time I can't see it.My formbook for the 79 flat is superform which doesn't have speed figures.Do I need to get Raceform to figure it out?

hi bream,

in my opinion no, any form book is enough.The race form book that I have gives very little information either but all the facts required are present so raceform would probably be a waste of money.

NB:speed figures and OR are rubbish.

Guest,

what aabout FSF did you have him also ? He was the c/f was he not?

[This message was edited by Barney on July 09, 2002 at 11:45 PM.]

M'toto,
Generally speaking I would say speed figures are a fairly good indicator of class for older horses, as to be top class a horse will have to have put up a very fast time at some stage of its career. The problem for me personally is when they are used to compare performances. Races are not always truly run, running rails often moved and going allowances can be innaccurate so to say a horse rated 110 will always beat one rated 105 seems too simplistic. I would much rather know that my horse has won a higher value race than the rest of the field or is top on ability ratings than know that its top of the speed ratings. Of course to find your horse is top of both is nice. Conversely, one that is poor on both ability and speed figures can be written off fairly easily.
regards,

I backed Dawn Invasion as I expected him to improve on his achievements to date. Was that an assumption ? Yes. I was wrong.


Simeon was beaten 7 lengths in his only attempt at Gp 1. To say he could beat Millenary (a proven Gp 1 horse) with form in the book was surely an assumption (in my opinion).

Form in the book against form not in the book ?

FACT.


*** I was beginning to doubt myself but with Guest stating `M` was the class/form horse makes me feel so much better ***

That doubt cost me money.

Barney,

Feet So Fast made the day so very frustrating for me. In my opinion yes he was the class / form horse.

Cheers,

Guest

Kutub, on a similar basis to that applying re Gaye Chance. I took a different view re Millenary, given what to me was the essential comparability of his last race and yesterday's, both in official class terms and in respect of the quality of the opposition. But as the c/f K didn't make any progress during the form analysis, and M had failed too often at the business end of races to be a backable alternative.


Determined

Facts never speak for themselves (in racing or in life in general), but only through our interpretations. And interpretations necessarily involve judgements and assumptions.

The fact that you chose not to back Millenary ( a very good explanation why ) and Guest did just goes to show how true your statement in your last post was.

I was pushing the FACT point just to let out a little frustrartion.

Good luck today.

I will not be having any interest today.

*** that said, Dimple Chad`s run today will be of very keen interest to me. Goodwood isn`t that far away ***

excuse me for interfering with your conversation with guest,kutub was beaten 2l by millenary who was 5 pound better off,how could you say kutub was c/f when again m was still 5 pound better off i personally did,nt bet, but i can,t understand why you would class K above M