Hi Guest,

I will try to answer some of your questions.

First there isn't a class/form horse in every race. In many there is a class horse that is out of form, in others there are horses that are in form without proven class. That is a very important difference, I am not interested in a horse that is not both. You yourself have just said out of the 6 mentioned on Boxing Day only 2 were REAL c/form horses. It is VDW not me, that can find a so called c/form horse in most races. As these horses are seldom beaten when the prize is right, I think it is very confusing to call them class form horses.

How did he manage before time was readily available? Timeform was founded in 1947 so I can only assume race times were recorded before that. If there were no race times, or they weren't up to standard then I can see no reason why class couldn't be worked out in the way you suggest. Or by using the class of the course the form was achieved on. As race times and s/f are available I see no reason to work with a handicap.

You say my formula is missing vital elements as put forward by VDW. The only element that is 'missing' is the ability rating. It isn't missing it is just arrived at in a different way, away that came from VDW himself. I think I have explained how I work my ability rating many times for anyone that is interested. I think I have explained it in a far more straight forward manner than some of VDW explanations of how to read form. Anyone who was interested would always arrive at the same c/form horse as myself. The only difference would be was it a bet or not?

As our (winning) c/form horses agree so often I don't think I'm very far of beam!

Be Lucky

Unless I'm very much mistaken then the comment from VDW that West Tip had half a stone in hand of Canny Danny at the framed weights was referring to Dick Whitford's Form ratings in the Sporting life. Indeed, VDW used these ratings in his evaluation.

The ratings were as follows, (remember in those days the LOWEST rating was 'best in at the weights' on a 1pt per lb basis):

West Tip 6
Little Polvier 7
Lean Ar Aghaidh 11
Canny Danny 13
Bold Yeoman 13

Thus West Tip was 7lb (half a stone) better in than Canny Danny according to the SL ratings.

Cheers

Mtoto - There seems to be some confusion as to what VDW mean't by the term "the class/form horse".

It could be seen or read as the class horse in the race who is in form. I believe and have proved to myself that what VDW actually mean't was the form horse in the race with the highest class. Virtually every race run has one of these under the second description, but not via the first one.

But how do we determine the form horses?

It would seem logical, would it not, to use the same process that VDW suggested throughout our evaluations?

Crock - I have always taken it that VDW was referring to the Life ratings when talking of West Tip having half a stone in hand at the weights.

Guest,

I may have the wrong end of the stick, but I would rather keep to my end. I would much prefer to back a class horse that is in form. Than a horse that has form, and is just the best of those that are. How do we know when the class horse is going to return to form?

You say do it the VDW way, isn't that the main problem? How exactly does VDW judge if a horse is in form? What holds good in one race is ignored in the next, or excuses have to be made. I may be wrong, but were does it say make excuses? It does say judge the horse by what it does on the track ONLY. The only time I would make excuses for a horse are when it fell (when not under pressure) and if it was brought down.

You ask was Castle Warden in form? was it's last run an improvement? I can see it was an improvement, but does that warrant an in form sticker? The last run was better because he jumped better, that fact doesn't make him good enough to beat Good As Ever. The only reason I can see that says CW is a better horse is the fact he had won a race of greater value. The sad thing is if he had won a second race worth a few pounds less his ability rating would have gone down. When you talk about logic, this is were I have serious problems. Can you, or anyone explain the logic in that to me?

You say Zamandra and Stray Shot were the real c/form horses. I agree with Stray Shot, I can't comment on Zamandra as I haven't seen the s/f for the runners. I do know a few people had trouble making SS a form horse the VDW way!

Be lucky

Mtoto

You ask about the logic of VDW's ability rating. I think of it in these terms.

VDW believed that the prize money of a race was an indicator of its class, and I think there is clear logic in this. The races we all think of as attracting the best horses tend to have the highest prize money, and conversely one doesn't find credible Derby candidates in £2,000 Southwell sellers.

Of course prize money isn't a perfect indicator: some handicaps, for example, have very high prize money relative to the class of horses involved, whether assessed in VDW terms or by reference to ORs. (The race Artie won on 15 June is, to my mind, a case in point.) But, broadly speaking, the higher the prize money the higher the class of the race, and this offers a logic to VDW's view about race class.

The logic of VDW's ability rating flows from that. The higher the AR, the higher average value of race the horse has won. A horse with an AR of 100 has, on average, won races with prize money of £10,000, while a horse with an AR of 20 has, on average, won races with a prize money of £2,000. It is surely not illogical to assume that the 100 horse is of higher class than the 20 horse - he has, after all, won races that, on average, are of higher class.

Of course, neither indicator is perfect, all averages conceal as well as reveal. But there is an underlying logic and VDW (and others since, including myself) have found them operationally useful.

It is also important all the time to bear in mind that VDW did not assess ability solely by the AR, or decide to back a horse solely by reference to ability. As Guest has regularly pointed out, both ability and (consistent) form must be considered, as well as VDW's other considerations encompassed in the notions of capability and probability.

A couple of times VDW said that the class of race is not the same as the class in which a horse competes.

What class of race was the 310 on friday?109?

Has anyone actually looked at why shamawan won? He was the "cross check" that produced the "conflict" not where they could or could not perform. If he wasnt there it would be "hey lads weigh" on logician and with that not running just jasmin would have been the only form horse and "a very fine wager indeed".

The examples such as west tip and canny danny and cool gin are spelling out situations we come across every day.Why nobody can see that is beyond me. When the green light is on when the red light is on.

Fulham,

thanks for your trouble with "framed weights", I appreciate it.

The stray shot and zamandra examples are illustrated by VDW in the ultimate wheel of fortune pg 17. If you dont have that they are in the "boxing day" cards 1984

Mtoto - I hear what you are saying regards logic, but the sort of view you have presented on "excusing" horses is no different to that presented daily by so called experts on tv or in the racing papers. I hear it day in day out on the racing channels along the lines of "I want to be against the fav 'cos it keeps coming second" or "the horse is too unpredictable to back". All these remarks are made without those making them actually checking things out relatively. I'd be asking in the first instance "what sort of horse did it keep coming second to and is there such a horse in the race today?" or "was the horse outclassed when apparently unpredictable?".

No doubt many thought me mad to back Keen Leader last weekend after two falls on the trot. The logic being that to fall twice must make him a bad jumper. From research I know that good horses do not continually fall and that it was far more likely he would stand up after two such runs. The means used to determine class and form also put the odds further in it's favour. But I'm sure many experts thought it folly to back a novice chaser at odds on after 2 falls.

The point is that the racing logic bandied about by the majority just doesn't hold up to examination. VDWs ways were and still are slightly unorthodox, but the logic is there just carefully concealed to most.

Castle Warden had been running in higher class races and ran it's best race when 3rd to a better horse. This was it's 3rd run of the season after an unplaced effort and a distant 3rd when 5/4 fav previously. Both he and Good As Ever were form horses, but CW was the class/form horse. VDW never said he was a bet, but merely demonstrated that to go against the class/form horse could prove expensive. For example the first race at Huntingdon today had Mithak as favourite but he was only 3rd on class/form. The other class/form runners also had factors against and it was a race to leave as the result showed.

My only bet today wasn't good enough and on reflection I maybe was too generous with MWs form establishment. Live and learn as they say because VDWs form evaluation process has inumerable permutations and as he said, we need to be ever alert so as not to fall into the many pitfalls awaiting us.

Barney makes a very good point regarding Shamawan who was far from out of it, but up against better horses. Who says weight doesn't make a difference?

Trust me Mtoto, you don't need a single speed figure to see why Zamandra and Stray Shot were class/form horses with just about everything going their way. All 6 horses were the class/form horses and VDW could not be any clearer than that. But there were plenty of reasons to leave 4 of them alone and the same reasoning showed why Z & SS were good things.

Barney

Cheers. Although VDW's choice of words allowed some scope for ambiguity (and let's face it, with the best of intentions, it is hard for any of us to avoid that from time to time), I must say Crock's interpretation seems certain to be the answer re the "half-a-stone" in hand point.

I didnt think you were mad with keen leader.

The bookie who put up 10/11 was mad, they nearly knocked his pitch over in the rush.

Morning all,

Not posting a great deal these days but I am just about finding the time to quickly read the thread.

I would just like to thank all those who continue to post regularly as the content is without doubt of the highest order and as several have said before it has to be the best out there.

Good luck to all those playing today.

Will Bindaree carry the weight to victory today ? NO.

Cheers,

To be honest looking at it does seem the most likely, it just adds up to seven in front of your eyes.

is this a one horse race?

Barney - Al Capone is the class/form horse, but the other factors don't add up for me. Just one factor is that last years winner was odds on to win at Gowran Park when 7lb worse off with AC who finished 3rd. True, that horse hasn't exactly covered itself in glory since in better class over further but the conflict is still there.

Ac is also going to start considerably shorter than his last few runs in a better class race and this factor just adds to the conflict.

Barney, I assume you expect Alcapone?

Personally (although not knowing Irish courses well) I would expect Sackville to get a clear round, the fences at Clonmel probably not being as tough as Punchestown or Cheltenham. Also Sackville fell at the last on those courses over 25f and 26f respectively. Over 20f and Clonmel fences I would expect Sackville to win this, even after a 214 day layoff.

I will not be playing in this one, However, if you do all the best of luck.

My best for the day is Ballybough Rasher, dutched with Mulkev Prince (Aintree 3.10).

My outsider of the day is Cosmic Case (Aintree 2.05)

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy

Has anyone a view on the 2.35 at Aintree. I make Blowing Wind the C/F with Goguenard 2nd and think the C/F will win.

All the best
hedgehog

AS usual there is conflict,

Discarding cool unemotional logic

some of these will have bigger targets where as this is the gold cup and national rolled into one for amberleigh house.

Hes had a similar prep to last year, when he won, same heavy weights. Mr mcain has made his intentions clear.

thanks

Hello All,

Can I ask the forum was Ardent Scout in form?

All the best
hedgehog

he marked his card at uttoxeter and then was given an insuficient trip with too much weight, so I would say yes