Dear Aj.
Here is Mtotos posting:
posted November 13, 2001 01:21 PM

Swish.
I'm going to answer you because you put a lot into finding winners not like some of the others that are demanding answers. To him I will say maybe his instructor knew, you could take a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Or perhaps the band wagon did more damage than he realised.
Alberich 8-9-99 won10/1
Blue Gold 2-8-00 won14/1
Riddlesdown 24-8-00 won40/1
Further Outlook 7-10-00 won14/1
Mastermind 21-4-01 won10/1
Reel Buddy 4 -5-01 won 9/1
They don't all win
Golden Wells 10-11-01 3rd 9/1
If some of you take the trouble to examine these horses they all have something in common, but they all ran in different races. I operate a method not a system so don't look for a set pattern to fit them all. I think Swish will see what is happening, if others want to contact me with their thoughts I am more than happy to explain as long as YOU have put a lot of work into it. I think a few of you want the betting slip written out for you.
Regards

Posts: 93 |

All you secret Vdw millionaires.
It has just occured to me that all you who have already made many thousands of pounds are now rich men, so why do you want to come on this board? Just to tease us?
Wouldn't you be happier in Barbados or somewhere similar, surrounded by beautifull girls?
And if you have made all that money you are all millionaires by now, so It would not hurt you to tell us how you have done it,
So what is the answer then?
You just come on board to tease us?
Or you have not made it atall really?
Yours
swish
p.s Let's see em answer that one

I already asked 'em about this but it seems the answer is just as secret as to any other question.

aj

reference point has answered that one.

look again

AJ

As regards getting hold of the old Form Books, I can assure you they are out there to be bought, though I am not saying anyone could go out today and buy the lot. But from personal experience I know that, over a period, one can get a collection together.

I am old enough to have bought the relevant Form Books when they came out, but foolishly disposed of them some years ago, thinking I'd taken my study of the old examples as far as I needed. However, consistent inability to break through even the 50% strike rate, and postings by some on the VDW Methodology Group, led me to realise that, in fact, I'd barely scratched the surface of the examples.

It has thus been necessary for me to draw together a new collection of the Form Books. I haven't yet been wholly successful, but in the last three months I have substantially completed runs of both Raceform Flat and NH Form Books from 1976 to 1988 (one remaining and, alas, important, volume still to find).

My purchases have come from four well-known book shops specialising in second hand racing books; two general second hand book dealers identified by searching the net via Google; in one case a volume found by a professional book searcher (whom, again, I found through the net), and in three cases a private individual with whom I was put in touch by a fellow Methodology Group member.

How hard have you tried? If you've located the four specialists (an easy first step) you must already have been able to get some of the volumes. If you search on Google you will almost certainly find one or two volumes available (as at least one of the two generalists had some that I already had), and various professional book searchers.

Your point about copying the books is impracticable. First, if you have copies of any of the books of the period you will know that they are now quite "brittle" and the pages easily come away from the spines. (Several of mine, well thumbed by previous owners, need rubber bands round them to keep them together.) They simply won't stand up to being opened and pressed sufficiently flat to allow photocopying without yielding to further disintegration. Second, even if it was physically practicable, the copying task would be immense. For example, I have just completed my examination of the 1978 John Porter, with just ten runners. That has literally involved looking at nearly eighty races in 1977 alone, spread right through the book. You can't realistically expect anyone to spend their time copying that much when, as I say, copies are out there to be bought, or referred to in libraries.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think I detect in your posts re the Form Books an attitude of mind clearly evidenced in other posts about VDW's approach. A wish to have things presented "on a plate". Well, as Guest has said, that is unrealistic. The only option we have is to put in the work ourselves, which is both time consuming and unrewarding in the short term. Far more attractive, perhaps, to focus on current cards and identify three bets at, say, Huntingdon, without having gone through all the nonsense of getting to grips with the approach first!

Swish

Thanks for the response and kindly putting up the previous posting. I will study these selections as you suggest.

Guest

Thanks for your response - I am not looking to hear anything specific, rather, as you were, pointed in the right direction. Please remember that looking from the inside out, everything is clearer. Anyway, I am happy to put in the work - I appreciate that you cannot go from A to Z without passing through the other letters or you won't actually know where Z is. A better analogy, (because that one's cack!) is playing the guitar. I have taught myself over the past few years, but the basics must be mastered to allow proigression. (That one's not great either!!)

Fulham

My comment about copying was a little tongue in cheek. But, I do see a business opportunity in reprinting the relevant books!! I certainly do not wish to have things on a plate as (as mentioned above) that would not provide an appreciation of the necessary tools to continue to do the job. In the long term that can be the only way to professionally utilise the method(s).

Thanks all

AJ

AJ

I've just checked one of the specialists (whose stock is on line) in the quest to fill my remaining gap. He is currently advertising five of what seem to me to be the 13 most important Flat Form Books one needs, at very reasonable prices.

The general on-line booksearch today was, it must be admitted, disappointing: a possible one only (MAY be the wrong Raceform publication for our purposes), in a shop, coincidentally, in Oxford. At least you wouldn't have to pay postage!

Happy hunting.

AJ - Further to the reply I gave yesterday and in response to other posts, I would say that your willingness to put in the required effort is very much in the minority. As a consequence the demand for old form books is there but only from a relative minority who want to go the whole hog. Your guitar analogy is relevant, because many people would love to play the guitar but for what ever reason don't bother to learn. Equally many do try to learn but find, whilst they can master the basics they will never be the next Jimi Hendrix or John Williams if you prefer the lighter stuff. It is the same for any skill, talent , know how , call it what you will. With VDWs methods it is possible to make consistent profits without going the whole way, but it is down to the individual. There are those such as yourself, Fulham, Barney or Mtoto,etc who are fully capable of going the whole way, but not all of them will. Whilst I was given a nudge here & there, 90% of the work was done by myself and previous postings I have made do contain useful clues depite what others may say. The best clues though are within VDWs own letters & articles.

Swish - Ever heard the old tales about not killing the goose that lays the golden egg or that kids story about the magic bowl that could endlessly produce porridge and how it was misused. Anyone putting on large sums and continually winning will not be allowed to continue. Anyone who has operated in the game for any period of time knows that. We don't have to be greedy and VDW stated himself that he rarely bet in big amounts.

There is an article within David Ashforths Racing Post column today that may interest those who have been approached about buying the so called answers to VDW. It doesn't take an Einstein to realise how he really made his racing pay especially if you have read his obviously backfitted systems that have little in common with VDWs methods.

Hello all,

Swish - thanks for posting the Mtoto examples. When you first mentioned it I did a trawl of the VDW_continued thread but only found 5 examples, one of which was Kates Charm. I did not think they may have been in another thread. Thanks again. I'll be looking up the form for those myself.

Fulham - I am currently looking for the form books for the Little Owl evaluations (it seemed as good a place to start as any). I'm looking for that year and the three previous. I've contacted 3 booksellers (Browzers, Tindalls and I think its Sweddon) which I found on the net and so far no response. What are the others?

All - Is it just me or is Stormez in the 2.35 Warwick just so far out front in ability and class that the others should just go home now and give it a walk over!

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog

With the exception of the one Flat book I'm still seeking, I have found the Form Books you are after to be the most difficult to locate (quite possible because others have taken the same view as you!).

I sent off a cheque for three of them as recently as last Thursday and, understandably, have yet to receive the books. Once I do I'll be glad to help you with sources if you care to email me.

Those interested in exploring races from a VDW perspective but lacking the old Form Books could perhaps do worse than review the above race.

One of the four "possibles" on paper was readily eliminated on grounds delicately hinted at in today's Pricewise column. The others filled the first three places, and a decent case could be made for the winner.

First of all, and in response to an earlier post by Mtoto, I have never stated that how you choose your selections is wrong, indeed it would be foolish of me to say such a thing when I do not know how you operate, and likewise I’ve never inferred that I am doing everything right.

With regards to my last post, some days ago now, I was merely bringing to people’s attention that it is my opinion that certain entries on this thread are misleading for those who are serious about unravelling VDW’s methods. In particular, there have been many books written on the subject of VDWs methods, but all that I have seen have fell well short of the mark. Had the author/s really understood what was being said then I’m 100% sure, knowing what I know, that they would never have put their findings down in print. Unfortunately anyone that doesn’t accept this will never achieve what VDW intended. That is not to say that people haven’t gained from the works of Jock Bingham and the likes but I’m afraid he and they were as misguided as many when it came to VDW and his methods, in my opinion. With regards to the formbook issure, it personaly took me the best part of a year to obtain ALL the that are required. This is just another example of the hard and dedicated work that is required.

Had VDW been around today he’d have benefited enormously by how information is presented, that is for sure. However, his methods still hold good today and apart from speed of evaluation there is nothing available now that wasn’t available then, when evaluating a race using any of the methods, that I'm aware of, that VDW employed.

A lot has already been given away on this thread that will, as usual, be passed over as insignificant. I believe I was helping when I suggested that SYS should not have been backed, but was aware that many on here would see it as a ‘holier than though’ suggestion. Hopefully though some will have seen it in the light that it was intended and gained something from it. One thing I’m certainly not about to do though is tell you why certain horses should or shouldn’t have been backed, that is the where hard work is required, but for many it is a part of the method that most are unwilling to give.

As predicted there were many several good things today, with a few too short to back. Warwick saw two short price favourites go off, but only one of those should have been supported in my opinion, which was indeed a racing certainty. I hope this is viewed, again, in the manner that it is intended.

i have to agree they are out there, as i have recently got 17 of the elusive buggers.

tubs

Dear Reference point,
Would you fancy a VDW challenge?
Not for money, just for enjoyment and learning.
I challenge you that I will make more money in a week to a level stake in handicaps than you could.
I think I will beat you and if I do you will learn some more.
On the other hand, if you beat me I will learn some more,
Can only be good for both of us,
Yours
Swish
p.s. you've no chance

Reference Point & Guest.

Reference Point

I except you haven't queried my method of selection. Your first post suggested there was only one person on this thread that had anything worth while to say on vdw. To make a statement like that you must have read all the postings, and know that Guest thinks I am wrong, and don't even understand racing. After reading your postings so far, Guest can be the only person, you think knows what he is talking about.
The point I was trying to make about the extra information was, why do you think vdw would still use penalty value as the TRUE/ONLY way to judge class, or ability?

Guest.

After studying the first 8 examples of vdw, I have found a theme that is relevant to all of them. Recently I have found a few more to study, and the same elements appear to be present in them as well. After reading your posts I know these elements don't come in your thinking on vdw. The question I must ask, is why are you so sure I am on the wrong track. I have never said you are wrong, but why can't we both be right? Another thing that puzzles me is the importance you place on the starting price in the last races run. Then you post about false favourites, and suggest by implication that not to much notice can taken of the money that makes these false favourites. This is not a new phenomenon, it has been around for a long time. Even before Piggott became the *housewife's choice*. If starting prices are to be used as a factor, how do you gauge whether the money knowledgeable?

Regards

in my opinion a short price indicates that it ran against not much oposition. its an indicator of the class it ran against not of the class it was in.

also,its easy to find what you think will win, but the hard part is knowing when it appears a cert, but cant win.mini sensation i thought met all the criteria for a cert one of 2 i found one won one didnt why?

[This message was edited by Barney on January 12, 2002 at 09:25 PM.]

Barney
Before worrying about the horses the first consideration is the race.

Fulham
If you need to look at 80 races to get a 50% strike rate my advice is give it up.

Hold on, Epiglotis,
It is my job to be sarcastic, are you trying to pinch my job?

Still seems to me that so many of you are going round in circle's, why can't any of you so called V.D.W experts just give people straight answers, it's like playing I spy with my little eye, it seems me that the comments Swish made about teasing other wanting to learn is spot on, I also read a past posting with ref toerance to not being told you are right even if you are lets say "getting warm"

Well yesterday morning the postman deliverd me the entire V.D.W set of books from browzers, and I've allready read 5 of them, maybe not all the answers Im looking for are in the books, but I've leared and grasped a lot more in one day than some of you have been spoon feeding me for a month, talk about being lead up the garden path. I never got any real answers from the last two posts that I made, but at least I have thrown a double six now to start the game.

Dear Tommyboy,
Hello and welcome to board. Thank you for your kind words.
Regrettablly I do not know all secrets of Vdw and I do not know who does, except for Mtoto, whose every thread is worth reading.
Why these "teasers" can even be bothered coming on board is a complete mystery to me,
Yours
Swish