Maggsy

I think I have assesed this race using facts as the basis. Got One Too had run in 2 handicaps before this race. I didn't use the form of the last race, I used the form from the race before that. The form of both races is better than anything Lisaan has shown in any race. If you give L the same speed figure as GOT or even 10 points higher it would still not be enough to have a worry about L winning. (that last bit isn't fact because it can't be proved) What is a fact is most winners are coming down in class,or running in the same class, and the higher the OR the better the chance of the horse. That is why it is very important to gauge the class element correctly. It is only for this reason I query the class, and ability rating as given by vdw. It is not out of any perverse idea of trying to prove him wrong, or that I am cleverer.

Guest.

I noticed you said weight makes a difference in THIS class about Turgeonev. Would the lack of class be the reason you would not expect it to make a difference in the case of Jowoody yesterday. That is if you made Jowoody a potential vdw bet, to have a look at, if nothing else.

Regards

I wonder if as in a previous case the reason for you not posting a suggestion to Barney's thread "2:15 Carlisle" was that you considered it to be a betting race? If so it would be interesting to hear your views about the horse that you chose.

Mtoto - Obviously the higher class the race the more difficult it becomes to give significant weight away. Most horses have their own individual weight limits beyond which they do not perform but of course, as with other factors, it needs to be related to class.

In the case of Wahiba Sands we can see that he won a decent race with a low weight and was then dropped in class with a much bigger weight, but not actually giving lumps away to win again. Saturdays race was going back up in class a long way with more weight and he was giving significant amounts to the winner and others. As VDW said with Canny Danny, no matter how good a horse is it doesn't overcome this particular handicap often enough to carry my money. Of course some horses can prove themselves to be up to such tasks and they have to be noted.

Please bear in mind though this is just one aspect that needs relating to many others within an evaluation.

Jowoody had a low weight, but not much else going for it really.

Guest,

I hope you may be able answer one other question for me.

I am slowly but surely building up my supply of formbooks containing the VDW examples. How far back do you consider than one needs to go to properly evaluate and understand what he was trying to convey. Would for instance the example race + the previous season suffice or would you recommend being able to go back to a complete lifetime history (ie. 5/6 seasons or more for NH) before starting an evaluation of one of his examples.

Regards

Regards

Mtoto
i agree that most horses that win are either
in the same class or being dropped .Are you saying then that even if a horse has won easily in a lower class race it can`t move up in class and win.Why did
you not look at the last race of SeeYou Sometime.
Isn`t this the most important race to look at.

maggsy

Epiglots.

I did view the 2-15 Carlisle as a possible betting race. Jowoody was the horse I was looking at. I came to the same conclusion as Guest, That the horse was not up to winning the race. I joined in before because the board was just getting started and felt any, and all contributions would help. This is no longer the case as many people now join in these threads. I had nothing to say about any of the runners, so had left it to those that had a view on the race.

Guest.

Can I ask did you look at Jowoody as a possible? Was Canny Danny like Wahiba Sands carrying more weight and going up in class? Also do you have any views on vdw's statement that most winners come from the middle of the handicap. It may have been the case then but now it seems to have changed. Or is that statement another one, that is credited to vdw, but taken out of context, or not his.

Regards

Maggsy.

The only rule I have is take every thing on it's merits. If a horse is improving, and trying something for the first time. Be it a raise in class, different distance, what ever. You must make your own decision. If it has tried and failed, in the past, the odds are against it doing it this time. Of course there are the exceptions to all situations, but can you make money out of trying to find them?

Your other question. Why SHOULD is the last race the most important? If you look at many of vdw's examples the last race is not important. Surely the important race is the one that judges what the horse is capable of at it's BEST. That may be it's last race, or a race that happened last month, or even last year. You can't apply hard and fast rules like take the last race, or even the fastest race, it is all relevant, and must be taken into consideration. Looking at all the facts for me, Lisaan would have had to improved that much to beat Got One Too, it wasn't a gamble to say it couldn't do it.

Regards

Mtoto - Canny Danny was similar to Wahiba Sands in that he had also been dropped in class to collect with more weight last time, but was then dropped slightly at Sandown with more weight and over 5f more giving lots of weight away. Again there were further considerations that compounded his fate.

Regards your reply to Maggsy about a horses best performance, what did you make of Ekbalco whom VDW gave as a good thing in March 1981 at Sandown ? Here was a horse who gave an apparantly poor effort just prior to landing The Imperial Cup, indeed official questions were asked.

Crock - I went back as far as I could. The more info the better.

ive been reading this thread and if your on about wahiba sands last run then i think that will turn out to be a poor example to use .wahiba sands was running off a mark of 152 aqnd had performed to his best off that mark in the past .with a winning postmark of 161 turgeonev ran 10lbs inferior to the likes of vintage wahiba sands and get real those horses just ran flat on the day.......it stinks but it does happen .its definately a poor race to use to find out why horses won from a class point of view and the stats prove it!horses can step up in class and when rating a race with class i always take into account a horse that is running well in lower classes.i.e if a horse won a class d race by 7 lengths last time easily ,he would be equally at home over a longer distance and class c race off the same sort of mark ,so common sense must be the final stop when using any system.

in response to maggseys earlier posting ,if you look at got one toos form prior to his last run he was a horse showing all the signs of being on the upgrade .if you forgave him a flat last run ,then the form coupled with his class rating was solid,all he did was continue where he had previously been before his flat run.no ones perfect!!at 10-1 i was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt!!!!!!!
and if that isnt enough for you .....then the fact that the horse hasnt won outside of ireland should have set the bells ringing....maybe he dont travel well would be my question!!
lisaan i mean.

B.B.2000

Good to hear a new voice, I have read your postings with interest, the 2 on this thread, and your postings to the other threads.

I note you say the race at ASCOT is a bad race race to judge Wahiba Sands. He ran as I expected, this was never going to be a tactical race. It was always going to be run at a true pace, faster than any race he had be in before. If you read his form there are warning signals he wasn't good enough to win.

I agree with most of what you say re Got One Too, but as far as I can see Lisaan had never been asked to travel before, so it is a brave shout to say he can't.

Your statment that a horse winning a D class race can move up and win a C is also interesting. The thing that worries me, is it really a step up in class? As far as I know the A,B,C etc is only a guide to the prize money. The real class element is the figures before the letters. Would it be possible to post a few examples where the horse has taken a real hike in class? I am not saying it is impossible for a horse to do it, as I said before there are always exceptions. They are rare at the top class and very seldom based on prize money.

I also do my own ratings, I learn't along time ago no matter how good they are you have to look at the top 5/6. The real work starts then.

Regards

interesting stuff .....ill keep my eyes open for some examples they come along quite often ...so shouldnt be too long
as for the form of the above race ...how can say get real running off a mark in which hes achieved a rating of 171 on the dist ,similar profile too wahiba sands and they run a speed rating of 155 off the same mark and you cant honestly tell me that it was on the cards .sorry ....but the proximity of the crap 20/1 second should tell you something straight away...i cant wait for the rematch between these horses,but at the end of the day its just my opinion .....maybe im wrong!!
well done for picking winner though,at the end of the day a winners a winner however it got there.

did anybody else have bold king today thats the first easy one all week

B.B 2000

Couple of points, I didn't say I backed the winner. I left the race alone because I found a better bet later on, Got One Too.

I don't use Top Speed or Postmark so I can't comment on them. I will say if you use speed figures that don't allow for weight, sit down and study them. Look at the horses with the fastest times, when they where achieved, in what grade, I think you may get a different perspective on the race.

Example Wahiba Sands Fastest time in a D grade race 5 runs ago, next fastest carrying 10st 4lbs 20lbs more today. Never shown good form in a true fast run race. Look at the actual times of the race to judge.
Crap 2nd fastest time in a B grade race 2 chase runs ago, carrying 6lbs more today. Only shows form coming of a strong pace.

Yes, I could see WS getting turned over, can you now. The main problem was could Get Real get back to it's best form. I wouldn't risk my money to find out, no bet.

Regards

Bookibasher2000/Mtoto - There were clear reasons before the race as to why Wahiba Sands was unlikely to prevail, one of which was the amount of weight he had to concede to a horse who had just won a grade 2 handicap (a race that last years VC winner had also won). It had little to do with ORs other than his OR ensured he carried top weight. Whilst not a probable, he was possible and so had to be respected.

Get Real had even less going for it. A history of running well when fresh and has gone off winning and had breathing problems. Ran a shocker in penultimate race that should have been no problem. He had also failed to win the VC many times before with lesser weights. There were also more considerations, few of which suggested either horse was likely to win.

BB thinks the result stinks and a is a poor one to use, but I assure him that this scenario or similar is seen time & time again. All that matters to us is what is likely to happen on the day in question.Another race and another day with different conditions may well throw up a different result.

Like Mtoto , I left the race, but noted Turgeonev as the most likely winner and well over priced. I personally don't back everything I think should win.

Mtoto
I think that good recent form is the most important from all the figures that i have
seen.But this is only a general rule.If there
ia a logical reason for a bad run last time
out like a bad draw or running in a class of race that is to high for the horse which i think is
what happened with Got one Too lto.As for Ekbalco
that guest speaks about i can`t say for sure with
out the form books but i would guess that its
last run was under conditions that stopped the
horse performing to its ability level.

Yes, I had Bold King. Stood out like a sore thumb, dropped in class a long way from it's previous two runs(both creditable performances), and won in a similar class before that. Another point is that Tribal Dancer, 2nd here, would be well worth backing on his next run in a similar class, won't meet one as good as Bold King every time.

Rob

hello again.....i can see where your coming from guys but see where im coming from....
when i work out form i use the OR as the paramount base line to start.get reals example is best to use....in the past hes carried OR of 153 and scored 161 ,or of 150 and scored 161 ,or of 155 and scored 161,all very fast times when compared to course averages.in the victor chandler he was carrying an or of 145 regardless of what his racecard said he was 5lbs less then some of his best performances on the clock and the same as when previously recording a 161 figure the race before.now off the same mark the horse runs 8 seconds slower than ever before and your telling me it was on the cards?can you see what i mean ....its not just me the trainer has been quoted as gobsmacked how crap he was and said on the record that there was something wrong with the horse because even he couldnt believe it.
i do understand what your saying but if get real was to reoppose on similar terms considering the distance he was beat and won or finished within 2 lengths wouldnt that prove i was right!so you can see why a rematch is very interesting.his rating for the race was 147 some 14 points inferior to any previous effort and that says it all really.
in the rematch you take 7/2 on turgeonev and ill take the 9/1 on get real .then ill just wait to see if the real get real is out that day.
p/s this isnt sour grapes at all ...i just want you to realise how i see it as always i really appreciate your comments as ive learned some good improvements by doing so.

B.B 2000

I do know where your coming from. All I'm saying when you have rated the race, study the findings. If OR's are a big factor in your ratings, you have to be sure the horse can run up to the OR you have used. For me Get Real has had a major operation and hasn't proved he is back to his best. I think the race before proved that. Beaten by a horse he should have beaten, speed figure down 15 + points from his best. OR down 11 points, and both those best figures where in defeat! Before he carries any of my money he will have to prove himself again.

Guest.

I have heard of Ekblco, but have no knowledge of the race you are talking about. At that stage of my life I was busy starting a business and working day and night. The only backing I did at that time was purely pleasure. I am sorry to say I didn't keep records or form books. I wish I had, it would be saving my a lot of time how, as I am trying to go through the vdw examples. We do not agree on a lot of things but there is one we do agree on. Vdw was a very astute punter who was years ahead of his time. If he was around now with the amount of information at his finger tips he would be unstoppable. Wonder what he would have given for 30 minutes on the flatstats site?

Regards

will the person who put the got one to selection up on another site dont forget these fine lads on here tomorrow.