Dear Barney,
Sorry I do not understand the last phrase. Do you mean we often state our case and then we lose anyway?,
Yours
Swish

yes

Barney
What do you mean by probability sc115
cc121

Maggsy

Dear Barney,
At least we are having a go at solving them,
if they lose, they lose. What have I always said? You have to back losers to get winners,
Yours
swish

maggsy those are my own probability ratings

maggsy those are my own probability ratings

swish thats right the man who never made a mistake never made anything!i dont think your wrong though!

Hello Barney,

I've asked Gummy to pass on my email address so please contact him/her?

All the best
hedgehog

re:prominent king

for those without the form books of that era(which includes me)here are 2 more examples vdw states " the trainer told you he was out to win", and that anyone who knew what they were doing could go to the races knowing they would win.

best bet travado 21-11-95
2nd best rivage bleu 21-11-95

i have checked the RP website and the form info is available for both of these races.

happy hunting

pointer required

when considering a 3 mile race

when a horse has been placed to win by the trainer,yet its ability falls outside the best rated, should the abillity of the other runners be taken at face value???with regard to distance,if it appears at variance with the true nature of the horse.

Hello Barney,

I'm not sure I understand the question.

If your asking should you discount a horse with high ability if it has PROVEN that the distance is wrong for it. Then I'd say yes. Similarly I would discount a high ability horse if it had shown that the current race type was not its best.

All the best
hedgehog

Hello Gummy,

Good Gag!

I've just spent the best part of an hour trying to get into your chat room.

LOL
hedgehog

Hi chaps

just looking at this

Benbyas looks the class/form in this.

Consistently improving Topspeed rating. Top rated by Adrian Massey. Top rated by Postmark and joint toprated by Topspeed. Last win over 17f at Cheltenham.

OK, carrying more weight but dropping significantly in 'vdw class' from 178 to 66, although going up in race class from C to B. Has won on soft on the flat.

Only Premier Generation is close on class/ability rating and his best form is over 2 years old.

The other form horse, Noshinannikin, is not close on class.

Top jockey.

Also the last 3 runners with form '111' have all lost so time for one of those as well.

Surely this is a 'good thing'.

Dear Alex,
Providing it can handle soft over jumps, I agree, to all the points you have made, and it does, indeed look a good thing. A danger, if any, may be Hunters Tweed,
Yours
Swish

I think this race, (2.25) is between ISLAND MIST and SELBERRY, with preference for Island Mist, although it has only won once, it scored good fig in a 60 and also good fig in 130 (came 2nd).
Selberry is quite consistent in this class and has managed 7 career wins.
In 3.25 STORMHILL STAG appears to be only one in it on face value.
Regarding non-hcps QUAKERS FIELD (12.50) is just completely top in every department. I think its a certainty (no such thing!).
What does anyone else think?
Yours
Swish

Reference Point.

I must admit to being disappointed with you last posting. I have waited to see if you would reply to the postings asking who, or what was misleading people.

I would like to ask you and Guest why are you both so sure that you are the only ones that understand what vdw was saying? When his articles where written, penalty value was the easiest, and probably the best way to judge class. The races where not graded and the OR's not readily available as they are today. I don't understand why you are so sure he would not have changed his thinking in tune with the times. Also it was not easy doing things by letter for him to give selections before the races. I don't know if you are a member of the vdw group. You act as if you are, although I have to say Guest has given some help with the understanding, and selections to look at. You however seem to be one of the *you are doing it all wrong brigade* All I ask is if we are doing it wrong tell us how/where we are going wrong, surely you can do that without giving too much away. Also, why do you think vdw would not have used all the extra information that is now available.

Regards

HEDGHOG

re: AN ODDS ON WINNER LAST TIME OUT AGAINST NOT MUCH OPPOSITION

Is this the stumbling block about short prices


i have tried you email and its returned not deleivered.ask gummy for mine

Following on from Mtotos latest post, I would say once again that the method works well for me, but it took a long time and a lot of effort to sort out most of the details. I also benefitted from a few clues from someone more versed in the method than myself, for which I was very grateful, but at no time was it all spelt out for me and nor is it likely to be for anyone else.

VDW stated that the various parts put into place were chosen for good reason and to ensure that the method would prove just as effective in future years. Unless anyone knows anything to the contrary , the aim of a trainer is still to win as much prizemoney and races for his owners as possible thus always ensuring that where possible, the better horses will always be aimed at the more valuable races and it is therefore logical to assume that these races will mostly be competitive as a consequence.

I have already voiced my view concerning ORs , etc and state once again that they are just someone elses opinion , no matter how informed.

There are many factors to consider when evaluating a race and it is dangerous to jump to any quick conclusions without taking all these factors into account. To spell all these factors and considerations out for general viewing would be a huge shot in the foot for both me and others out there who have come to grips with VDWs methods and are making consistent profits as a result.

Finally , there is one thing I have never been able to understand with regards to those seeking a solution to VDWs ideas. Why do so many seem to question his conclusions about certain races, but continue to try and solve the puzzles set ?

My advice is to not question his conclusions, but to answer for yourself his reasonings. It's not easy but it is possible.

My post of 4th Jan has remained largely unanswered. Thank you Barney for your response, and Mtoto - you noticed that the question remained ignored. I will pose it again and particularly ask for the attention of Guest, Fulham, Bensam and Reference Point.

Reference Point – the form books are simply not out there – how about you have yours copied (?I will pay) so that we can benefit from wisdom past??

Anyway – it appears at first sight that SYS has many fine credentials, and indeed it does. Classified also has strengths, but at first glance these seem to be at a lower class, whatever has been said. This assumes the adage that “form is the achievement (eg 1st, 2nd, last etc) and class is the level at which it was achieved.

Q1 – Was Classified a better thing because of the weaknesses of SYS or because it stood out by itself?

Q2 – Is the class/form of the competitors more important than the class (or value) of the race?

I don’t want to be spoon fed, but the main frustration (Guest) is


I don't see how an answer to these points could be construed as giving the game away, nor as aside the point. So how about it?

A further question of Reference Point - please could you tell me where can I obtain the relevant form books that you say are accessible?

Cheers fellas

Dear Aj,
I thought SYS had nothing to beat and I was wrong so I cannot help you any further, with that race. Mtoto posted some races up in mid November on the thread GETTING WINNERS, all based on his interpretation of VDW. See if you can find that thread and make a note of those races. Then study them. Take a long time and make a note of speed figs, class, OR's etc etc. This WILL help. Mtoto wants people to look at those races, that is why he put them there.
Yours
Swish

AJ - It is true , there is no one all encompassing answer to the VDW methods. However , there are certain aspects that were not deliberately pointed out by VDW , but rest assured they were there to be found when we approached the problems in the right way. To point them out in full view of the web would be both irresponsible and foolish.

It has been said before, and I fully agree, that some of those interested and working hard to find the answers are more than capable of solving the issues themselves. When you find the answers I am equally sure that you will then appreciate the need to keep them to yourself and not throw them away for a quick buck.

Sorry if this isn't the answer you wanted AJ.