To answer to Mtotos questions it's worth looking at a few facts within the form.

Rouble had shown the distance was not a problem. He won at Ascot over shorter but in a fair event after finshing behind One Knight on his seasonal debut at Chepstow. 9lb more to carry at Sandown.

One Knight showed decent form with 11-0 at Chepstow when beating Polar Red and Battle Royal. Set to carry 7lb more at Sandown.

El Viejo battled on to deny the fav last time recieving 8lb now set to carry 12lb more in higher class. No chance really.

Sir Dorton achieved his wins in chases at Plumpton and Shareef failed to beat Lucky Bay last time and lacks ability.

It can be seen the winner is likely to be either One Knight or Rouble but the correct conclusion was to leave well alone. Remember you don't HAVE to bet.

Finally , I would say Mtoto has answered a few questions for himself judging by his last post on the above.

Guest.

I would like to thank you for your quick response, but there are a couple of points that don't add up for me.

How can you say Rouble had proved himself over the distance, if he can't hold his own over a horse that is a quirky customer and one that has gone lame? If the form for One knight was suspect (in his last race) then that must apply to Rouble's form in the same race. The next question is, why would you think after that performance Rouble can beat O K this time, the only reason could be fitness, but being fit doesn't prove he can stay. Even if he can reverse the form is that good enough, for me not proved. El Vieso's race was run in a slow time, but he proved he had enough speed to hold out in the sprint at the end of his race. That race was at a better class course and he had beaten horses of better class in that race. I don't know the exact ratio's but I can't see that an extra 12 lbs to a horse that weighs around a 1000lbs can make that much difference if the horses are roughly the same class. If a horse doesn't stay it doesn't stay, weight will not change the result.

I still think it is possible for 2 or more people using vdw methods to come up with different reasons to back different horses in the same race. Both can have logical reasons, but different selections.

I except you don't have to bet, but if there are good reasons for rejecting the 1st and 2nd favourite, what more do you want? Before you answer that do you think El Vieso ran up to it's best form, I don't.

Regards

Hi Mtoto

I very much agree with Guest in respect of the race in question.

The first two in the betting had both shown they could manage the distance (Rouble, for example, on 22/2/01), and had run well above El Veijo in class. (And EV's recent win was hardly impressive - by 0.75l in a 40 class hurdle. The RP comment "battled on well under pressure flat" doesn't, to me, suggest he was ready to win again upped substantially in class.)

Despite the fact that the favourite beat Rouble decisively on their earlier meeting, it is clear that he was relatively fit (having had a run), whereas the RP comment on the race suggests that Rouble was far from fit. It was, however, reasonable to assume that Rouble would have been much fitter yesterday, having by then had two runs.

Personally, the race looked a match between the first two in the betting, but I can see no way in which one could favour one rather than the other with sufficient confidence for a bet.

The points you have raised Mtoto all goes back to how the factors VDW chose fitted in with his method. You say how can 12lbs make a difference to a 1000lb horse ? If it didn't make a difference then the powers that be would have done away with hcaps and weight considerations long ago. Weight does count , the results bear this out. I believe you may be confused as to how the blend of various factors affects the outcome of horse racing.

As to Rouble getting the distance Fulham points you to the very run I would have , though I am surprised as to how anyone could miss it. He also points you to the fact the One Knight had run a few times much more recently than Rouble at Chepstow. His conclusion was the right one , though as one gains more experience they can usually sort the eventual winner out but not to back with hard cash.

It all boils down to understanding the real essence of racing.

Hi Guest and Fulham

I will start by answering the last part of Guest's post first, in an attempt to answer Fulham at the same time.

I did in fact have a good look at the Huntingdon race on the 22/2/01. It this race rather than the Chepstow race that made me think Rouble would have trouble staying 2 1/2 miles at Sandown. Huntindon is an easy track, and he was run out of it on the run in. The Prize money may have been better, but the class of horse was not good, the Raceform private handicapper only awarded the winner a rating of 90+

If you then read the course description for Sandown. Stiff with a severe uphill run-in. Front runners do well but ability to get the trip is of PARAMOUNT importance. Ei Vieso had won his race on a similar course Ascot, if Rouble didn't stay and One Knight not as good as you think he is, who is the winner? I thought the idea was to work out how the trainers thought.

Guest

Your first statement is a bit harder to answer. I have found from past experience the actual weight is not the deciding factor when assessing a horses chance. Handicapping does work because it raises the horses through the classes of race, by raising the OR. As the class rises so does the pace of the race, good horses run faster longer. For me it is the class/pace that stops them not the actual weight. That would explain why more handicaps are won by the horses in the top weight bracket. There are statistics to back the facts up, also most races are won by horses running in the same or lower class. This usually means more weight. I often wonder if that is one of the reasons vdw said change your methods and preconceived ideas on racing.

Regards

As I have mentioned before , weight is important and it's something VDW often emphasised. He also said that horses have their own individual weight limits beyond which they cannot perform.

Everything is relative be it class , form , etc. Yes it was an improved run by El Veijo at Ascot but under what circumstances was it achieved. Taking on a penalised novice of not much class and then taking on better horses with a penalty at Sandown. Also look at the prices that day.

Both Rouble and One Knight won in decent class at levels and they were expected to deliver. Both then penalised at Sandown.

Remember it is all about the facts available on the day a race , any race , is run. Opinions should hardly come into it. The Raceform handicapper is giving an opinion whilst useful it is not a fact. The fact is Rouble went down very narrowly in good class over 2 1/2 miles last season , fact.

Regards research , it is meaningless really to note how every horse fares after carrying extra weight or less next time without relating all the other relevant factors. The fact is , weights do make a difference to the selections found via VDWs methods. This I know to be true. Research is very important but the results should not always be taken at face value.

thanks you guys for pointing me in the right direction reading your comments above tells me i'm on the right track and looking at the race in the right way.

could you all give your in depth analysis to the 200c yesterday and expose a few more illusions for me.

why is it always clear after the event???

Barney - Without going too in depth into the Chepstow 2.00 on Saturday , I can tell you that it was relatively easy to isolate the class/form horse Majed but there were factors against. Whilst he was dropping in race class a bit and on the same course , he was set to carry 21 lb more taking off Tom Scudamores claim. Kings Castle won a decent prize last time but not against much opposition and with nothing else worth a mention it was a race to leave for me. The result only emphasises the folly of going against the odds.

Just to nip the idea that the method doesn't pick the odd loser here and there in the bud , See More Business fell in the following race. However Fondmort duly landed his race at Sandown.

Things are clearer before a race if you stick to the facts. For instance Edredon Bleu does well after a break but not so well with his races close together , fact. Flagship Uberalles had won the Tingle Creek twice before and had won every race after a long break and was 2nd on his debut , fact. These facts along with other facts would have shown you the winner in the race.

guest thanks for quick reply but now have questions

the last time majed shouldered that much weight (even though it won) the rating for the race and the OR for the horse were nowhere near that of the winner whose rating was rising without a win and was far higher than that of majeds best performances, similarly with another form horse kings castle with a best race postmark of 135+ and an OR of 107 was nowhere near the standard of the fourth to barracouda.

was that not a clear selection apart from the consistency rating

was there enough doubt even considering the form/class weight burden if it only runs to 130 with 10-3 how can it run to the same off 11-13?????

This message was forwared to me from Marchwood.
Thanks for your email on VDW, I have no objections to you passing on some info,thats what groups are all about. I have had a quick look at the Gummy site and my first impression is that members still seem to going off in all directions, have you managed to form any basic method based on the dutchmans original concepts,
I think one of the main problems with many devotees is that they are looking for far to many bets using this method, remember the original idea was based on possible selections from the highest value races at the principle meeting of the day with a possible consideration being given the the next highest value race and also the highest value races at the other meetings for that day,how many people are sticking to this basic method rule?

Another way to get some idea of the class of the horses engaged for todays race is to formulate a class rating based on the last three races run by each horse ie: last three races ran in 20.000,15.500 and 18.000 ratings are 200, 155,and 180 add together for a total of 535 divide by 3 = 178 which is the class rating for this horse today,do this for all runners in the race,then
compare all the ratings against todays race say 13.000 race rating = 130 now make a judgement of all todays runners together with the last three form figures and the ability rating here is what a race may look like.

horse class rating ability rating form.
one 82 62 6
two 210 168 5
three 110 120 7
four 116 129 11
five 168 150 18
six 170 78 3
you have created another numerical picture,you still have to evaluate the form for each horse etc.i would be focusing my attention on horse number two it has the class rating for todays race,it has proven ability,and looks to be in form,a question to finish with, has our possible selection shown form with todays weight.

This was sent to me by Charlie Anderson who was a
regular contributor to Sports Forum and I believe a very successful VDW devotee. You may not agree
with his reasoning but it is just another contribution towards the methodology from the thinking of VDW,

regards
Marchwood

Mr Anderson may be a "VDW devotee" but he seems to lack a sense of the history of VDW's contributions. What he refers to as the "original idea" was, of course, offered some years after VDW's first and, arguably, most important articles.

I still haven't so much faith in this way of rating the class or ability. As has previously been pointed out one high prize result can completely out wieght subsequennt results. Also about dropping in class, from 60,000 to 15,000 is a 45,000 drop compared to a drop from 15,000 to 2,000 which is the higher drop? Sorry I'm completely pissed so please extrapolate from this.

Barney - The only handicap ratings that effect the outcome of racing are the official ratings. Raceform , Timeform , Postmark , Superform , etc are all the results of compiling data based initially on the compilers opinion. As everyone can see the ratings awarded by these compilers can vary to large degrees , something VDW reminded us of years ago. I am not saying they don't have any worth , but they should only be used as a guide not as magical pointers. Final selection should be based on the facts available , most of which appears in black & white day in day out in the Racing Post or whatever form book one uses.

You ask how can Majed perform to the same level with the extra weight burden ? Well the fact was we didn't really know the answer before the race but in all probability it would be some sort of hinderance to his chance in that class. So with nothing else in the race worthy of attention we leave the race alone. Some Majeds will improve again and win but not often enough to put money down on them. To put up the eventual winner as a selection though based on the evidence to hand smacks of a fancy rather than a firm proven selection process.

As to those questioning the ability ratings - it is useless to have ability but be out of form or in a situation where a horse is unable to capitalise on its ability. Consider yesterdays big race at Punchestown where the class/form horse prevailed from the second on class/form. Study all the facts and you may discover some new ideas to consider in your form evaluation.

Hello All,

First let me say that I bet Majed and said goodbye to my money. Guest's no bet advice would have come in very handy. From memory, I reasoned that Majed had won carrying 11-12 and only had 1 extra pound so had a good chance.

Now here's the curious thing. Looking at the race again afterwards I found that Kates Charm had the highest Ability rating. In fact the top 4 Ability were Kates Charm, Majed, Tensile and Kings Castle in that order. If memory serves that was the 1,2,3.

Anybody got any ideas?

All the best
hedgehog

Guest.

I was going to keep out of this discussion until I had a better understanding of the essence of horse racing. After reading your last post I feel that possibly it is you that lack in that department. Worse than that, I feel you also lack in a TRUE understanding of vdw. May I suggest you return to the Prominent King example read and fully understand what vdw is saying.

You seem to have trouble distinguishing between your opinion and FACT. I agree fact is the only important factor when assessing a race. Majed was another illusion I can see no way he was the true class/form horse. I never back on a FANCY, the winner was there for all to see. The only way to make it more obvious was fairy lights and a red nose.

While you are brushing up on the PK example try reading a few of vdw quotes like "what is form"? and as a famous man once said, "Who said the form horse is the consistent horse"

I would normally try to choose my words more tactfully, But YOU don't seem to bother.

Regards

hedgehog

when majed shouldered 11-12 it was in a novice race.
when it next had 11-00 the official rating was 124
when it next won it had 10-6 for an OR of 133
when faced with 11-13 it had no chance of reproducing 133

Hello All,

Barney - thanks. I don't normally work in terms of OR, which is a weakness, as you have just shown.

All - The thing that gets me about that race is that before the fact I had Majed as the Class horse.
Afterwards, and without trying to bend the facts to suit the result, it was obvious to me that Kates Charm was the Class horse. I had simply missed the obvious.

I'd like a little guidance on this. Even if I had done before the race what I discovered afterwards I would probably still not have bet Kates Charm because of its recent form.

However Kates Charm with an (89) was top ability and, as such, should have been the first horse I looked at. As it was I gave it a cursory form check.

Can you help?

All the best
hedgehog

A couple of responses.

Firstly any form of argument needs to be backed up by the use of the correct facts. Kates Charm was not top rated on ability , Majed was though. Majed was also a form horse and if anyone disagrees with that then they seriously need to ponder how they read form. The fact is the class/form horse is not mean't to be supported every time you isolate it. Mtoto says Kates Charm was obvious , well fair enough Mtoto but it wasn't found using the methods put forward by VDW. Some of your questions and responses clearly show , to me at least , that your opinion enters your own calculations so I find it surprising you accuse me of not sticking to the facts. For instance you refer to a certain horse as "quirky" an opinion if ever I heard one. As to my re-reading the Prominent King letter , well perhaps it would be more helpful to others on this board if you gave them your understanding of it.

Also when did I ever say consistency was form. It certainly isn't.

At the end of the day I know the method works as I use it. Attitudes such as those shown by Mtoto only prevent others from gaining a nudge in the right direction from those who have put in the hard work and research.

Hedgehog

I am not following you with regard to the 2.00 Chepstow on Saturday. The three most consistent horses were Kings Castle, Majed and Il Capitano, and the four highest on VDW's ability rating were, in order, Majed (76), Tensile (66), Kates Charm (63 - 502/8) and Kittenkat (58). On paper, therefore, Majed is the clear "class/form" horse, as per VDW's article of 13/4/85.

The questions then arise, was it at depth the "class/form" horse or was there a more clear cut "winner in the race".

As far as I'm concerned, Guest's view of Majed was spot on. It had won at this level, and it had won with the weight to be carried. But it hadn't done both at the same time, and to my mind whether it could, running off 9lb OR higher than its best ever performance, was an open question. Thus, not a bet.

As to Kates Charm, it too had won at the class of Saturday's race, and had put in some other decent performances, and was therefore by no means out of it. But with only one first three finish in its last six runs, it certainly didn't seem to me to have the form in the book to be classifiable as a "good thing".

I can see the parallel Mtoto is drawing with Prominent King. But for me there was no way in which Majed could be regarded as over the top, as was possible with Beacon Light in the Erin.

Hello All,

Fulham - thank you for responding. I was hoping you or Guest would. As I said I lost money on Majed and I do take on board Guest's comments and realise it should have been a no-bet.

Also I wrote that I would not have bet Kates Charm given its recent form. Majed definitely had better form otherwise I would not have lost my dosh!

But Kates Charm is a better hurdler than it is a chaser. And in a similar way Flagship Uberalles is a better chaser than it is a hurdler.

I think I'm right when I say Kates Charm had an Ability rating of (89) making it the horse I should have looked at first. Even if I would have subsequently discounted it on the basis of recent form.

Basically I'm looking for guidance to check I'm not going down a previously trodden path that has proven to be unproductive.

All the best
hedgehog