Barney

Marchwood is wrong, both about several of Rifle Brigade's "facts" (which he has obviously picked up second hand and has not checked with the original sources), and what made him an "outstanding" bet.

Rifle Brigade ran seven times as a 2yo in 1977, and won his first race as a 3yo on 15 April 1978 (not the 16th), the "Go Racing in Yorkshire Trainers Trophy", a handicap confined to three year olds.

RB was indeed the horse with the lowest consistency rating but, contrary to Marchwood's assertion, two of his rivals had achieved higher SFs.

And if, like Marchwood, I was in "house putting on" vein, I would put mine on the proposition that VDW would never have bet SOLELY on a horse's superiority in a race on the consistency rating.

A Couple Of Points.

Rifle Brigade had a lot going for it anyway , but to have transformed into a 5yo over the winter from 2yo and be running in a 3yo only Handicap ?

To Barney re SYS. When addressing all the various factors , you only need think about it logically. No one factor is the decider but as a whole they paint a clear picture.

To others - beware the expensive tipsters. I've said before that you only need to stop and think as to how so many "professional tipsters/punters" can afford to own racehorses. Certainly for the majority it is not through their tips. Witness the winners enclosures today.

Hello all
Are you sure that you don`t relise were the feedback is coming from, ive just put something up!! and you don`t give me any feedback??? what so ever???
TONY.

PS I think CD is becoming right???

LOL

thanks for quick replys

fulham what distances were other sf???( the better ones)

this is the problem with no form books!!!

guest with regard to sys it was to murky for me i didn't bet on either. both would have been better but price was poor

[This message was edited by Barney on January 05, 2002 at 09:23 PM.]

Barney

In terms of the runners' highest recorded SFs as 2yos

Alaskan Prince recorded an SF of 57 over 7f
King Pearl 54 over 6f
Rifle 52 over 6f
Deep Profile 29 over 1m
Gardenia Press 15 over 6f

Other SFs of 40 and over were:

Alaskan Prince 51 over 7f
Rifle Brigade 49 over 1m
King Pearl 44 over 1m
Rifle Brigade 40 over 5f

thankyou fulham

i dont know what i need untill after

dont suppose you could stick the courses and values at the side of them could you

Barney

As you said earlier, you really need the Form Books. And (contrary to the views others have expressed) they are out there to be bought, or referred to in libraries.

the funny thing i find about all this is, there are books writen on the subject, all with references to raceform in them or put together with raceform, and yet they do not provide the form data to go with these books.

the biggest annoyance is that people sell the vdw booklets knowing full well you need the form books to make any head or tail of this puzzle.

tubs

Tubs

Don't forget that when VDW wrote his articles he was referring to more or less current races, for which the Form Books were readily available. All Tony Peach has done is to bring the articles together for the benefit of those who weren't in a position to collect them at the time (or, like me, were glad of the opportunity to replace a pile of yellowing and increasingly fragile cuttings with a (fairly conveniently) organised booklet).

And for those sufficiently interested to go more deeply into VDW's work, the source materials are there to be consulted (or bought if preferred).

Although it may have misled some, I think Reference Point's analogy was spot on. With well over a hundred examples given, the research effort needed to examine them all in depth would, in my view (based on completion of only a small proportion), be markedly greater than that needed to write an undergraduate or Master's dissertation (at least at the second order university at which I teach). And I am sure that the level of capability needed to make enough of the research so that one can go one and achieve the kind of strike rate VDW implied was possible is very much higher than that of the average Masters student (and, I rather fear, that of the a VERY average university lecturer like me!).

asking for the data for 1 example isnt the same as asking for it to to be spelled out is it????

i must be on the right track with this one then

Wed 19th Dec Newbury 1:00
Fri 21st Dec Uttoxeter 1:55
Any views?

Dear Epiglotis,
In the 19/12/01 1.00 Newb race I backed Garruth because of its absolutely superb hurdle form. If I had ignored, that hurdle form, there was only one horse in it. Cruise fairway whhich won as we know.
In the 21/12/01 1.55 Uttox I never even looked at race. But here the reverse happened. The race was won by the one with the superb hurdle form this time, i.e Wain Mountain. If I had ignored hurdle form in this race the only bet was the fav Errand Boy. There is no way anyone could have picked both winners using same set of criteria. I see you have headed your letter with 50% STRIKE RATE.
Is this what you mean?
Yours
Swish

Thanks for the reply, I'll address it later. At the moment I think I'm in the chat room but no idea how to use it. See you there?

As it goes I chose Garruth and Wain Mountain from which the Post opines that my winner was a lucky stroke. I think luck is part of the game and it's pertinent to side with lucky horses. But as you say can the winner of these two races be selected before the off? This message composed to the strains of Link Wray.

hedgehog

regarding the 145c

you consider the races similar

both racers here are officially measured where as with sys the only way to measure classified was to look at what it had beat.

therefore there is no similarity and the class form horse won.

a sore thumb was the 130f

hope this helps

Hello All,

Yesterday was a day of mixed emotions for me.

In the early morning I decided that Reference Point had a fair point and stopped betting until I had a better understanding of racing.

Later, I evaluated 3 Irish races and picked 3 winners.

Thats the thing about God. She has a wicked sense of humour.

Barney - Thanks for the response. I considered L/P to be similar to SYS/C because of similar form comments with similar previous race odds. It's going back to the question of the significance of previous race odds.

I also looked at the 1.30 Fairyhouse on Saturday. I considered I'vehadit a good thing except it was not proven at the distance. The same reason, in the past, I did not bet Shooting Light(I think I've remembered the name correctly). However in the case of SL, I kicked myself later because as far as the Racing Post was concerned it had placed at the distance.

Another reason I would not have bet I'vehadit was because the odds were cramped. I considered 9-4 a fairer price.

Going back to the 1.45 Cork.I considered Lisaan a bet at better than 2-1.

I think the 2.30 Fairyhouse is also interesting. I thought that Galway Breeze was a good bet at better than 11-4. Like I'vehadit there was only 1 point separating it from the next on Ability but it was proven at the distance. Both were consistent(6/5) and both had a highest winning class at about the same level(61/66).

Barney, don't come away with the impression that I'm any good at picking winners. I'm not. I just had a lucky day. I'm definitely a learner and will gratefully take any help I can get!

All - in the past I have asked questions on the significance of LTO class, whether Ability should be calculated on a race type basis and what is the significance of previous race odds. To which I have recieved some responses.

I'd like to ask another question.

Am I asking the right questions!

All the best
hedgehog

To those capable of allowing the mind to do the work, don't be misled into thinking you need all of J Bingham's books, just get 'Be a Winner- Back Methodology.....' wherein vdw describes the rudiments of a very profitable method.

Don't also be misguided into thinking you need to do the work required for a degree. Studying the early examples upto and including Lady of Verona will introduce you to a working knowledge of how vdw assessed form. Keep referring to all the vdw letters and you will achieve at least an 80% strike rate. Those with the aforementioned mind will be sidetracked by the those who think they have something authorative to say but I hope this constructively helps those that have a mind.

Hi Hedgehog
I was interested in what you said about horses being favourite in there last race. So I had a look on the R-Post website for the three examples that Jock Bingham gave in his book Be a Winner.
En Attendant - Cap Juluca - Dublin Flyer.

En Attendant 7/8/93 Won 11/1 VDW Selection
Previous races 8/7/93 Won 14/1 3rd Co/Fav
`` `` 26/6/93 3rd 8/1 3rd Fav
`` `` 18/6/93 Won 7/1 Jnt3rd Fav In the Market last 3 races

Cap Juluca 30/9/95 Won 11/1 VDW Selection
Previous races 17/8/95 Won 7/2 Fav
`` `` 11/8/95 Won 4/1 Fav
`` `` 22/7/95 Won 3/1 Jnt 2nd Fav In the Market last 3 races

Dublin Flyer 6/4/95 Won 11/2 VDW Selection
Previous races 15/3/95 2nd 9/4 Fav
`` `` 12/1/95 U.R 3/1 2nd Fav
`` `` 10/12/94 Won 10/3 2nd Fav
`` `` 16/11/94 Won 10/11 Fav In the Market last 3 races
Its got me thinking anyway
Good Luck Geoff

hedhog in the 130 i scrubed all horses except 2 and i got 2/1 for a 4/6 chance