Hi maggsy,

It,s impossible to tell really I am just making assumtions. I have noticed though sometimes that in the RP next day it sometimes says OFFICE MONEY but it never says how much. I thought, another assumption based on no facts, that it was seperate from an individual's bets.

Epiglotis/Mtoto/Investor - I think the logic referred to by Investor was in the context of class and form.

I am surprised at some of the general excitment that is generated whenever anyone, myself included, names a winner before a race on the forum. Isolated cases don't actual mean anything, it is long term that counts. But my point is, VDW gave us his avenues of thought on class and form and we can take it, or better still prove it to ourselves, that he concentrated on class and form in his way because it worked best in the long run.
Horses will fail for no apparent reason sometimes and also win on other occassions, but I prefer to stick to logical guidelines. Imtiyaz was class/form and there was no better effort in the race than his grp 1 narrow defeat over 9f in France. The winner and third had won group 3 races and were in form so in context it was solid. Imtiyaz had won over the course from the front this year also and was lightly raced. For whatever reason he fell in a hole after looking good 2 out. If I was to speculate on a reason for this, it would be that overall Godolphins horses have been a bit of let down in the UK this season above certain levels. But none of that changes the facts before the race.

I had 2 bets today, Imtiyaz and Summer Wine at Lingfield beaten a neck by a 25/1 shot. Found via different methods but both the class/form horses in the race. Thats racing though and it is only lent for a day or so because I know the methods work long term. Just because Binary File won I'm not going to look for ways to make that sort of profile fit, when I know many Binary Files (ie apparently unlucky last time) turn out to be lame ducks. In this case it would seem it was unlucky at Newbury.

Horses with the same profile as Scotts View today can also be left to run and win now and then. It's all part of winning in the long run and I have to let some or most class/form horses run unbacked. As VDW said there is a good reason for this. There is always another day.

Guest
Nice to see your good and honest statements.
Please dont' take it the wrong way. I mean it as I say it.
I should like to add that, with my method, that is a mixture of VDW and SWISH I would still not pick BINARY FILE now even though I know the result.
As Guest says that is racing.
May I add (and I shall tell you that I have had a bad run recently) that GOVERNOR BROWN today was a CLASSIC EXAMPLE of ROUSHAYD METHOD in my opinion,
Cheers
Swish

I would like to add the following.
In SYSTEMATIC BETTING VDW says that you must not get a gut wrenching feeling when they lose.
I have come to terms with that.

He also says you must not get overly elated when they win.

Well I regret to say I WAS OVER THE F****** MOON,
when GOVERNOR BROWN won.

Sorry but picking winners against odds on favourites thrills me to bits, and always shall,
Swish

Guest

The logic of your Summer Wine bet yesterday seems clear, and on the facts available prior to the race the sp strikes me as generous. But it would be instructive if you felt able to say what you regarded as the minimum acceptable price for the bet.

I like yourself and quite a few others on this forum, have spent many years investigating the works of VDW, albeit following slightly different
paths, and at varying levels.
There are many interpretations of his letters/articles but all appear to have the common thread of consistency, class, form, and
improvement. However the holy grail for all of us must surely be "85% to 90% winners, flat and jumps, year in year out" that he alluded to in 1979. There is also enough evidence in his works
to suggest he didn't achieve this level by "dutching", or by backing short priced horses with everything in their favour.
I have achieved some success using his methods,
but have never come anywhere near to the levels above, and have often asked myself why not?
Many times I have supported a horse, KNOWING IT TO BE THE BEST HORSE IN THE RACE, only for it to,
as Barney puts it, perform unusually, ( and, too often, win at a later date, unsupported by moi).
I am certain that I am not unique in this respect, and the form book is littered with examples of the above that cannot all be attributed to the vissicitudes of racing.
To give one easily verified example of this,look
back to the form of Showboat, who ran a blinding race in a strongly run mile at York, then was run
in all manner of races, FOR 13 MONTHS, before
being sent out to win the Hunt Cup by a street, landing a substantial ante-post gamble in the process.
I use the above example not to show how smart I am, but to show that matter how much we learn about class, form etc, unless we KNOW what the trainer is up to, we are always going to be peeing into the wind to try and achieve the above strike rates.
I am willing to be proved wrong on this, in fact I would love to be proved wrong, as it would enable me to read form without all the second guessing, but as yet, despite the depth of the combined knowledge on this forum, I have yet to see any evidence of the above kind of strike.rates.

Swish - Nothing wrong with celebrating a winner, but of course the point VDW was making that the "gut wrenching feeling" of missing a winner or backing a loser needs to be supressed because it leads back into the void reserved for mug punters IE feeling you have to back everything you think should win.

Over 50% of the races VDW suggested to use in the main for his consistency method provide a winner from the 3 most consistent figures from the field or the first 5/6 in the forecast. 40% of the same races go to a horse who ran in the top 4 class last time out. Around 30% of the top 2 on ability win all races excepting maidens. And about 70% of races go to a form horse, form as seen by VDWs way. All this helps show why VDW backed less than 20% of horses he considered should win. If you think there can be around 30-45 suitable races as described in "Spells It All Out" a week then you can see why he preferred to have just a few bets per week with the method.

Of course he gave other methods to use, because different types of events sometimes need other initial approaches as with Summer Wine yesterday who was on my 2-3yo list as given in Systematic Betting. Once raced at 2, she made her 3yo debut at Goodwood in the Lupe but well out of her depth at this stage. A rest and then a sharp drop in class to get that all important win into her at Lingfield. Note the race was lesser class than her 2yo race also. It didn't come off nothing is 100% certain, but even at a shade of odds on I would have backed her in that known company.

John D - Horses, especially good ones have specific targets as you are well aware no doubt and some trainers can get up to some crafty things to hide their intent or the horses true form. VDW suggested we watch their games and learn from them. I take it you also backed Showboat in that stunning demolition at Ascot a few years back. Interesting to note how he fared after that.

Nice post Guest.

ALFAZAR 4.30 REDCAR

This horse has a lot going for it today, but with the meagre prize money, and the forecast SP,can anyone say for definite that it "Is off" today?

CURFEW 3.10 SALS.

Pushed well up in class, but a fascile winner lto and holds a group 2 entry. The prize money indicates that it will be trying for its life today, I may well be wrong, and I certainly won't be having a bet, but 3/1 may well prove to be
finding money in the street.
Good luck.

Johnd.

hi if you look at blue reigns he's up to no good

been a long time since b.r did anything of significance.

i make undetered the c/f horse but expect a bit of improvement from pinchbeck.

i must agree with you r.e guests last post,plenty of food for thought there,i would just like to add that 50% of winners come from the first two in the betting,but i,m sure you already know that little statistic.

you seem to be opening up a bit more just recently,don,t say your leaving the thread aswell?

Investor

Keep your voice down when you start saying things like that.

sorry mate,no harm intended.be lucky i,m just off to have a look at your thread

3:10 Salisbury.

Interesting race, I make Enchanted the class/form horse, with Curfew the danger. Very surprised at the difference in price, I suppose it is based on the trainer of C being in great form, and a NAME (at the moment)

Of the 2 I think E would have been aimed at the race. C taking her chance before the handicapper gets hold of her. She also has a bad draw to over come.

There are 2 unexposed horse in the race I would be worried about Feathers Flying, and Christalen (also not the best of draws).

A hard race, but I'm going with Enchanted as she has the potential to improve after only 2 races as against Curfew who would have been race fit when they meet last time.

Investor

Don't even think things like that. I don't know about the rest of you, but Guest is showing how he works, and that must be a big help to all of us.

Be Lucky

any thoughts on the 3.30?

Mtoto

I agree with you regarding Enchanted. Her third behind Curfew was her first run of the season, then won well when upped in class at Newmarket. At the likely prices I've sided with Enchanted.

Rob

Johnd, to me you have hit on the "missing link". A horse can only run and jump, it is the human mind that chooses when and where. JIB

I can see that its a while ago but I think hes doing a lot of fiddling about with it trying to get it right and with its past ability he will and we will be on it probably be 50/1 or something when it goes in.