thanks for a very interesting post,i think you have inadvertently helped solve something that had been bugging me.

Fulham


Not a lot I can say to add to your post, you have summed up the finer points
Hard to suss out these lightly raced animals.
I see them as a threat rather than a bet which stops me betting in the race
I can see nothing to suggest that BQ would win
And I see butler did it again in the next race with a lightly raced horse
BQ hacked up didn’t it and I can see no evidence before the race that it would do just that
In fact if it hadnt have been there in the first place Desert air would have won it

The finest filter I have seen over the last 35 years (the first 6 in the betting forecast) today trapped all the winners bar 1
And the one that got away came from a 2yo selling hcp

I played the LTO scenario for a long time with great success may I add, but there is more to it than that ,I do wish it was that easy ,would save a lot of time and effort

I watch every race every day and record every Handicap ,when the result is up I check the form of the winner and the places to see here it came from etc
Its getting a bit sad with me really all the time and effort I put in
It annoys my family I have 2 young kids and when a 6 year old comes home from school with a picture they have drawn of Mummy and Daddy it hits home
Especially when there is a picture of Daddy in a chair hunched over a computer with a horse drawn in a box which is supposed to be a monitor.

Back to my obsession
Its too late now
Its aftertiming but Have a look at Mr Toad in the claimer I saw it ,left it as I did with Tripplemoon Lto

The game is now getting so complicated to me That I cant even manage 2 meetings
And find the right ones the last Horse I backed was Blackheath when it won at ponte

Maybe time to call it a day
Trouble is I cant

Are you me or am I you? Certainly sounds familiar both VDW and Guest have said you have to live the game to make it pay. Its a job but there is no wage cap to limit your efforts.

what is your objective with regards to racing?

I was much the same today with ashgar sayed and MR toad but backed neither.

the FINER point of temperament will I am sure be worth it in the Long run.

Do you ever use VDW's other instuctions for dutching and double and trebles and the AB BC scenario?

Guest

I am surprised nobody has mentioned it
But where did you get Coalition from , I can see nothing apart from one simplistic Lets call it Variable.
Going on what it had done I couldn’t have backed it in a hundred years, to me it looks like one of those horses that “spoil the party”

While I am here
I posted on the other board but Nobody answered
Does anybody use Computer Raceform
If you do
What do you think of the new version
I think they have totally naffed it re Usability
Its another of those things that makes me think of packing it in

Max

I'm glad. I've had the same experience with posts, mainly Guest's.


Boozer

I agree. But to press the point slightly, on my reading of the form, if any horse was going to hack up, it had to be Beauchamp Quiz. The others in the first six had all been more exposed, most of them very much more. For any of them to have hacked up would have been a shock. However, I don't see how one could have predicted BQ would win so easily without being privy to the kind of information only available to connections. That said, as far as I can tell there was little or no evidence that the horse was backed, so maybe its performance was a surprise to them.

And you are quite right that, in the absence of BQ, Desert Air would have won. I think that again points up the power of VDW: a classier, in form horse, against less classy rivals, can win even over a non-ideal distance. That, in essence, was an early comment from Guest, in the context of Rifle Brigade, which put me on the right lines there, a VDW example that had bugged me for years.

Barney


Wage cap is the problem
With me anyway
Too much effort for too little reward it gets more complicated to me now
I have got older and lost part of my motivation
Its my problem alone

Objective regarding racing

I have none left really apart from the challenge
I find just as much enjoyment being right about a result as much as having money on at the same time
I have got older and no longer need to see it as a way of getting out of a humdrum job


you said
Do you ever use VDW's other instuctions for dutching and double and trebles and the AB BC scenario?

Absolutey

Take today

3 horses I mentioned in one race
Al mullim

Although not the one I would have chosen
But wouldn’t it be nice if you could get that sort of scenario just once a week
Back all three at those prices
Lose 2 stakes
And end up with the equivellent of a 9/2 winner
Perfect
But its not that easy I am afraid

Which brings me to another point
VDW’s 80% strike rate
If the first 6 in the betting produce 83% winners
If you narrow the field to 3 out of those 6
You have to be right and extract the right one of that 3 and pick the right race
To get the VDW claimed 80% SR overall

I could see 50% as being realistic
But 80%

Hmmmm

r.e pegwell bay,which horse did you consider c/f in this race.

Fulham

Had to hack up is not good enough
Not for me anyway I just see them as a threat
I agree totally with the rest of that Paragraph


Your second Paragraph
Absolutely

I am a fan of the so called Roushayd method or a variation of that theme, I can see the logic in that and I think there are enough bets to find based on on it to satisfy anybodys betting operation
And don’t forget the “more ways to come to the same conclusion” and “works under both rules and at all levels” also “a viable method especially when horses are dropping back in distance”

I can vouch for everything in the above especially the last quote



I seem to spend more time researching than betting nowadays but
For the pure VDW
Who don’t like big weight hikes from one race to another and think that Prizemoney to the winner is the be all and end all
The prizemoney bit is here in these 3 examples and I would agree it is best if it is as well as the OR's that Mtoto likes
But there are other examples where they all look the same re Prizemoney
I am researching those


Have a look at these 3
I can see most people on here will split there sides laughing or dismiss them especially when they see the type of race that one of them is in

But
When you have done laughing
Ask youself this one question
If weight matters that much Why did 2 of theses horses bolt up by 8 lenghts and 9 lenghts

There is solid evidence before the race that suggests this would happen
Miss Opulence 26 july
King’s crest 9 july
Kathology 31st may
and Katholgy was avaialble at 9/2 early doors

Barney

Take a look at Kathology the so called 2nd Numerical picture

That is if you see it as I do

Boozer - First thing to note about Coalition in the context of Saturdays race is that it's a 3yo who only showed it's ability when upped in trip. Whilst it hadn't beaten a lot, though fair in context, it was delivering the goods when expected and given the opposition it was great value. Remember with 3yos the ability rating is treated with extra care and used in conjunction with speed. The class/form of it's races has to add up though and in my view his did relative to the field on Saturday. He was also super consistent. True it was a race straying from the levels relative to a card that VDW suggested, but with experience it is ok to do this when the horse has the right profile.

cheer up!

Get the kids into boarding school.Pick a good race and lump on. GET on a carribean cruise and do a couple more races when you get back to pay for the next one!

According to VDW nothing changes year in year out.

I sometimes get that feeling at golf my brother always says Iv'e got PARALYSIS OF ANALYSIS and take a break.

Hi all
Having been away for a couple of weeks i'm playing catch up, trying to digest all the latest posts so bare with me if I regurgitate anything thats been covered .

Weight, placings, SP's, F/casts, consistency, penalty values, ratings, ability ratings are obviously all expressed numerically.

If any of the above were converted into percentages, e.g first five/six in betting produce 83% winners, form figures 111 = 33% winners, so on so forth then you would be in the same school of thought as F.Chester, i.e playing to the percentages.
This I believe is the crux of VDW's method.
If you can convert any numerical picture and it shows a favourable winning pattern then this would be a strong starting point for any evaluation.
VDW could well have had any amount of favourable percentages/statistic which when combined would leave him with his probables.
By my way of thinking the same principles could be applied to isolating the class/form horses.
When looking at VDW,s selections they covered the whole band of racing, N.H, flat, hcp's, non hcp's etc. So for all of them to be grouped as class/form horses they must have had something in common.
If this was the case his method could be split into two, first isolate however many class/form horses there are in any given race, secondly apply your own reading of form on the class/form horses.
The second part I would think would become easy given time, the first, from personal experience is a f**king headache which i'm yet to solve, after all there must be hundreds of combinations you could go over until you come up with the same route VDW used to isolate class/form horses.

All the best
Chris B

Boozer

I said if any of the relevant horses hacked up, it had to be Beauchamp Quiz, nothing more. At my present level of understanding I see no way in which one could have predicted from the publicly available information that it would hack up.


Investor

Until recently I would have confidently replied Townley Stone, but that was when I was applying an approach to identifying class/form horses which worked with 19 of the 20 explicit examples VDW gave us (leaving a 21st, Desert Hero, for separate consideration). However, I now realise that the fact that that method produced 19/20 was fortuitous, and it fails as often as it succeeds with other examples.

At the moment, therefore, and until I've looked at the race in detail, I genuinely have no answer to your question.

Fulham

Sorry I see I need to improve my wording

Barney,
What makes you think it was pro punters money
that went on Compton Commander?

I am surprised that no one has yet mentioned the fact that Scotts View is running again tomorrow,
so it looks like I have got to be the first to stick my head above the parapet.
Instead of approaching the race from the class/form consistency angle, I have tried to ascertain what the trainer is telling us, as I am
convinced that this angle will stand further investigation.
Reading the form again I am reasonably certain that the horse did not stay the stiff 14 furlongs at Sandown on good to soft ground. Those who think that the horse was outclassed, over the top, or jaded by a series of races close together, may disagree but reading the form as it stands I would say that mine is the safest
conclusion from the evidence we have.
Working from this basis, and assuming that the trainer takes the same view ( there is plenty of evidence in the horses previous form to suggest he will be at least as effective over 12f as 14f )
what does the trainer do next? After giving the horse a short break he sends him out over a shorter distance, in a good class race, and the horse is ridden from off the pace to see how he performs, with a view to a race( in which he is already entered) in the near future. The trainer knows that although both races are of equivalent value the horses he will meet in the second race
are of a lower calibre and the race is confined to horses of his own age.
Could the trainer be TELLING US THAT THE HORSE
REALLY OUT TO WIN??????

I know that I am on a hiding to nothing here, if the horse wins it is a short price favourite with
a lot in its favour, which my granny could have picked, if it loses then I look a total pratt.
If it opens up discussion on looking for horses that the trainer tells us are really out to win then it could well be a small price to pay.
( all the above considerations aside the horse looks a bloody certainty anyway )
Regards

Johnd.

Maggsy,

just the volume and amount of money swilling round on a monday when all the good citizens should be at work.

a lot of people i know dont have £300 pound spare to spend in a month never mind put it on a horse on one race.

Therefore they must be pro punters who are taking,or trying to take, money from the ring.

I could understand a bit, if it was owned by the board of ici racing club and they were all on a pissup entertaining a merger party from Zenica, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

There wasn't even enough whacked around the race to make it seem there were dutches going on.

[This message was edited by Barney on September 03, 2002 at 10:51 PM.]

johnd,

good call re scotts view as this trainer really can make you see your arse.

In my opinion, which is somewhat biased on this trainer, he could just as easily be trying to make us forget just what the horse achieved so far this year.

He could just give him couple of bum runs and leave it untill next year,at which time not many will remember he was a forcast fav and likely winner of the ebor.

You just never can tell !

It looks as though Mark Johnston will be saddling 2 high profile short priced favs at York on Weds.

In my view, Scotts View is one to leave well alone.

In the other race, I make Imtiyaz the class/form horse and a bet to boot.

Guest, finally we agree about something. IMTIYAZ is a terrific bet at fc 7/2, its only a pity its sf lto wasnt one bigger then we could talk about Roushayd! I am glad and relieved that someone of your capacity agrees with my selection. JIB

Johnd,

I see Guest has suggested SV is left well alone today and as usual he looks spot on.

In my view SV ran the best race of his career in defeat at the weekend. I also feel the drop back to 12 fur`s will not inconvenience him.

Todays opposition do not as yet have a win in the book to compare with SV`s high value win at Gdwd.

However, SV carries 14 lbs more actual wgt` today and has to concede masses of wgt` to the whole field.

SV has proved he can carry big wgt`s but against lesser opposition.

Today`s small field has many in form horses all of which are open to significant improvement (unexposed).

SV may win but the price on offer is not value given the no` of unexposed horses.

Also, using Topspeed as a guide SV does not get rating support.

A good race to watch which will tell us plenty.

** a close up placed effort by SV today giving this wgt` will be a good effort and will put a bit more speed into him, ie - there is a valuable 12 fur` h`cap at Ascot at the end of the month when I do not expect SV to be carrying 9-07 ( just a thought ).



Guest & JIB,

Good luck with Imtiyaz,

Cheers,