All
when gauging how good a horses form is why
not look to see how other horses in the race faired,When the rp puts the raceform for the horse in a race it normally puts up how many horses had won or been placed in its previous race you could go back and see what races they had won, If some had won or been placed in better
grades it could be good form, could be worth an extra 10 mins checking.

Michael.

micheal,

thats a better place to start than most analysis,
and its heading in the right way but a bit back to front.

By all means e - mail me at the following address

mark.bailey15@ntlworld.com

speed figures and form

i know this is an isolated example but the sf recorded by topton in its last race is not relative to the actual form.

thats why i think they are rubbish.

Hi Michael,
I'm afraid I don't quite follow you, are you saying to look up the form of each runner in it's last run and see what had beaten it and then what that horse went onto to do e.g. Win a high class race etc.

Stray Shot
Can anyone with any knowledge of the Stray shot example tell me if it was forgiven by VDW in it's last race before the huntingdon-boxing day race, due to a mistake in running
quote "Mistakes: hdwy 7th: mstk last: nt rcvr wnr" ???
Cheers Mimas

HELLO MIMAS

welcome to the board

nice to see a new member who has already started to look at the form books.

Hello Mimas,

Stray Shot was noted as being a bit backward 1st time out chasing at Windsor, which is never a problem and it’s something that can be expect. At Huntingdon next time, although perhaps not on the face of it, Stray Shot actually showed good improvement, making mistakes.

Horses tend to make mistakes when they are stretched, be it wrong distance, high class, pace etc etc. and it’s necessary to establish what they were down to. Obviously Novices will make mistakes as part of the learning process but it’s always worth a look to see why. So in a nutshell, no, there was nothing really to forgive him for, in my humble opinion.

chaz,

is that why some jock's seem to thrash them through the fence rather than over it?

mimas
re raceform sorry for any confussion, What i meant was when you see a horse that you think looks good you look at either what beat it or what it beat in its last race, but go further by looking at what won or was placed from that perticular race usually a good race will have had at least 3 winners and say 4 placed horses from it,I would look at what grades that they ran in to see if they ran better or worse to get
the win or place,And make my mind up from this, Hope that this is worded better than last post.

Michael.

Barney,

Pretty much. those that are fighting out the finish or running in to a place will be pushed hard and this is where mistakes can happen, when the horse is stretched.

chaz,

i saw one just like that last year on its first run i thought "bloody hell he's trying to make it fall" it did too.

next time out it bogged it with a good performance at 8/1. IT never came out again though.

I will watch for that this year!

wish i could remeber the name of it, something to do with trees or bushes i think.

Barney.

I don't see how I have answered my own question. One of the reasons I use s/f is to check the horse against it's self. You need something else to check if it can handle the class. I don't know if you remember a top athlete called Dave Bedford, he was a world beater when he ran against weak opposition (world class times). When he ran against top class he was hammered. Why because the best run faster longer, he could never get away from them enough to build a winning lead. you can't take a horse in isolation, against what class is the important question.

Topton. I don't know who's figures you are using. If it is Top Speed, the first question is now far have they gone back and adjusted the times the new chap uses? On my times there is nothing special about the last run. Topton is a horse that does better on the all weather (I think) he is best on good to firm ground, reasonably consistent. Has a class limit of around 85. could win a weak C race if everything went his way and it was a fast run race.

Bream.

I'm not saying Guest is wrong, I just can't make logical senses of some of the things he thinks. I don't know where I first saw it, but somewhere after the PK example (when ability ratings where not mentioned) I read, take note of the class they ran in, who they beat or were beaten by, etc. If ability rating as presented are important 17 does not stand up in a race of this class. If Guest has met vdw and he personally told him this is now I work. I would have to believe it. Guest has never said this, he was helped by someone else. That person may, or may not have cracked it I don't know, Guest comes across and genuine, and I am sure he believes he has the answers. It works for him, as it works for me. So does it really matter, in a lot of cases we are backing the same horses. I only ask questions because I want to learn, and all of us should be open to new thinking.

As a man once said we are all novices.

Be Lucky

PS. that's not to say cryptic clues don't do my head in !

Fulham,

Re Jock Bingham's tips,I may have them written in a notebook at work.I did have them written down at home as well but haven't been able to find them.I'll have a look tomorrow.

Michael,

Seems logical to me.I think when you joined the board you said when you had a bit more experience and confidence you may put some evaluations up for discussion.You seem to approach things in a logical manner.So if you do ever feel confident enough to do that I would look forward to them with interest.

All the best Lads.

Mtoto - If you saw two horses of roughly the same class and one of those horses had recently run well in a top class handicap, would you expect the other horse to beat it giving the former lumps of weight ?

If you then took another two horses, the first of which hadn't shown the same level of class and form as the second, to date, and the second was giving just 4lb to the former but was in form in better class previously, would you expect the first horse to win ?

Michael seems to be finding the right paths to take but again it all needs collating and balancing out.

true fav
marmaduke

Guest

In your second hypothetical example, as you've expressed it one would expect the higher weighted horse to win. But if that example had been expanded to include more information about the two horses' records, for example the facts that both were reasonably mature hurdlers; had run against each other at the highest possible class less than a year previously with the lower weighted horse convincingly beating the higher weighted at, on that occasion, level weights; and that the lower weighted horse was rated several pounds better than his rival by the Official Handicapper, might not one reasonably have had doubts about the outcome? In this regard, there is surely an element of similarity to the Rasm/Vintage Premium situation last Saturday. On their previous runs, one could surely not have been unduly surprised whichever order they finished in the John Smith's.


Mtoto

Regarding Guest's first hypothetical example, the Sporting Life, despite its generally good reputation for accuracy, from time to time gave a false picture of a horse's recent record. Reading the details of recent races in the relevant Life, one might suppose a horse's recent form was 012, when in fact it was 312, the three being illustrated under the details of the alphabetically prior horse.


Or, less cryptically,

(a) Sea Pigeon had comfortably beaten Beacon Light at levels in the 1977 Champion Hurdle, and was rated several pounds higher than BL, so why should one EXPECT BL to be able to give him 4lb and a beating, albeit that BL's most recent record was seemingly the better? Much depends on the attitude one takes to Sea Pigeon's unsuccessful venture over American fences. If one leaves that to one side, and assumes that he was fit, he was in fact very likely to beat BL on 4 February (as, of course, he did);

(b) prior to beating Prominent King on 14 January 1978, Drumgora has not finished down the field at Fairyhouse, as the details of the three previous races given in the Life might lead one to believe, but had finished a good third in the Irish Sweeps Hurdle (race details given in the Life under Decent Fellow). With that recent form, for Drumgora, getting 19lb, to beat Prominent King three weeks later, was certainly no surprise.

As per Fulham's message, there is a lot of old-style collateral form involved in the PK case. I say old style because these days punters in general are more interested in ratings/speed figs and previous class than who beat who at whatever weights. The vdw statement regarding the "class of race a horse runs in is not the same as the class of horse it runs against etc" would appear to apply in this case would it not?
It is also likely that the facts mentioned by Fulham would also turn up on a weight related rating method, whether for speed or otherwise.
regards,

When using prize money does the age of the horse count, i.e. a 3 y.old total wins= 50K and a 7 y.old total wins= 60K. Is the 3 y.old the better horse?

Hi Statajack

I think the 1978 Erin is one of the most fruitful of all VDW's examples, but also one which (like all others, and indeed contemporary races considered retrospectively) needs positive effort if one is to put to one side the real incumberance (as far as analysis goes) of knowing the result.

Once one knows how VDW worked, that Prominent King was the class/form horse in the race is clear enough. But VDW would of course wish to establish that this class/form horse "stood up" and was worth backing, and its here that I suggest the status of Prominent King as a bet becomes the issue. And, prior to the race, that centred around (though not of course to the complete exclusion of other matters) how one evaluated the forecast (short-priced) favourite, Beacon Light.

On VDW's basic methodology, Beacon Light was not a "form" horse, and did not show up as a likely contender on VDW's "two methods of rating", whatever they were. There was also the very real question of whether BL was likely to be at his peak after a hard race on heavy ground only a fortnight earlier. Taken together, those build a formidable case against BL being in with a favourite's chance.

But there was a contrary case. On a number of other ratings, including VDW's own ability and consistency ratings and the Official Ratings, Beacon Light showed up favourably compared to Prominent King. Similarly, as per my previous post, a case can be made for saying that BL's last performance before the Erin was a good one, showing he was indeed in form - after all, he finished markedly closer to Sea Pigeon, on less favourable weight terms, that when he had followed the latter home in the previous year's Champion Hurdle. And the race returned decent sfs.

VDW didn't describe Prominent King as a "racing certainty" (as he later described Little Owl in respect of a race); an "outstanding" bet (a term he used in several cases, such as Rifle Brigade, Orchestra and Derrylin); or indeed as a "good thing" (a term he used commonly). Rather, he described PK as "a good proposition", which is fair enough. He was certainly a much better value bet than Beacon Light, though had Beacon Light gone on and won, it surely would have been no very great surprise, any more than it would have been (to me, at any rate) had the less exposed and potentially more progressive Rasm confirmed placings with Vintage Premium on Saturday. In both cases there were more and less likely outcomes, but in neither, I suggest, was one outcome a foregone conclusion. And, alas, that is the situation that faces us most of the time.

Michael
Thanks for the explanation, much appreciated, but why look at the future races when you have the past.

Barney
Thanks for the welcome, I have posted before but it was some time ago regarding Lesley Ann and the speed figures you were after.
Cheers Mimas.