Swish - My reply regarding your question of how the markets are formed is pretty straightforward. Surely everyone is aware that handicap ratings, ORs and racing whispers along with what is generally perceived to be "form study" are used to form the markets. I use VDWs way which is very different so why should I go into great depth describing a process I know to be greatly flawed. All we need to know is roughly how others come to to their conclusions that ultimately for the markets. To be honest, as you say, anyone with half a brain who follows racing can name the favourites without reference to any of the above, but can they sort out the actual winner ?

Sometimes Swish, I get the feeling you don't want to hear what is being said. Perhaps I can ask others on the board how they interpretated my last two replies to your question of how the markets are really formed. True, I wasn't stating anything that wasn't already known by the majority (though apparantly not to you), but the question was how are the markets formed, not how do I read form.

Max - Notice the way I have separated my comments to you by the use of Max - ... , I'm sure I did this with ORs - ..... and also Bensam - ....
No wonder you have been unable to unravel VDWs tricky puzzles. I am just off to check your thread and if I find 91% winners named on the day in question I will give you a full apology.

Back soon....

Max - Perhaps you can give me a clue a direct me to the exact post. The point is, as I believed I posted within your thread, is that what you are seeing as the class/form horse is very often not the same horse as the one actually thrown up by VDWs approach so how can filters overcome this? Filters and suchlike are just system orientated rules which is this case are just trying to cover up the fact that you and others haven't fully understood everything that VDW told us, some of which was slightly hidden.

As to my own situation, why should I look to improve a method (not devised by me) that I have proven to myself many times is as good a thing as one is ever likely to get where racing is concerned ?

One last point is that perhaps I usually only check the forum late at night because I have other things I would rather being doing earlier on [sorry Gummy, no offence ) ]

o/r's no you did not indicate this was not directed at me.

you will find thread on vdw main page 23/3

filters-i remember asking you 3 or 4 months ago your opinion on the relevance of trainer/jockey strike rates at different courses and whether a poor s/r would have any significance to you before a bet was placed,i ask this because the favoured word on this thread temperment is often used and i thought that an important aspect of vdw was for all relevant factors to be in harmony before a bet was placed.your reply all though not a direct quote went something along the lines of-it makes no difference how well the trainer has performed previously at the course and would not be a fact you would consider.i find this very strange and allthough past performance can not guarantee success or failure in the future it sure as hell should make you think twice before backing against negative prior stats.take martin pipe for example who last season failed to win a single h/c chase at one of his local courses taunton,now before you start banging on about the class of course and subsequently the class of race staged there i would say that occurances like the above happen right across the board from g3 to g1 courses,i only used mp because he is such a high profile trainer.while we are on the subject what about john dunlop's 3yo at my local course leicester 0/30 in 2001.the list is endless and no explanation you may offer can dispute the fact that trainer and jockey strike rates are if not more then certainly equally as important as any initial selection process.

finally i would like to take this opportunity to wish you well and if i have upset or insulted you it was probably a knee jerk reaction in response to your initial post where my natural instinct was to defend myself.

Hi Guest.

Guess who. I have read the chapter that mentions Henbit many times. I am afraid I must be missing the point, so could you help me out? To start, is vdw saying, all Derby winners are class horses? Why would anyone expect the ratings NOT to differ? They are based on a different criteria, and serve a different purpose. Were these ratings both based on their 3 year old form, or the final rating at the end of their careers? After reading the article the only sense I could make of it was don't mix the rating. Ok the OR's MAY only be an opinion, but you don't hear many trainers moaning, Timeform have put me up 7lbs. Now I can't run in that nice little handicap I had lined up next month!

I don't really expect you to answer this but.... If race value is the only/best way to judge class how did you cope with The Zetland Cup this year? The winner won a £20,000 race in a fair time. If that is not taken at face value what criteria did you use to say hang on this is a pretty weak race?

When I was reading the said chapter, one thing did jump of the page at me.

A single factor, time, form, class, etc., will not achieve consistent results. That I did understand, and use all the time.

Be Lucky

Top on bare ability ratings if we exclude Caustic Wit ( first run 12 days ago was his first after injury - showed nothing and carries more weight today ).

On all known form Mr Mahoose was without doubt the class horse of the race and if reproducing his Newmaket win of last season when he was heavily backed and duly hacked up then today should have been a formality.

Judging by his starting price today he was expected. At the time of posting I have no idea how he won.

His impressive win at Newmarket meant he was well fancied to win the competitve Ascot race but on that occasion he was found wanting.

Back to today, his 2 runs this season in my opinion could not say he was in form and given the fact he was out of form he could not be considered the class/form horse or could he ?

Any comments or to be more direct, did anyone consider him a VDW bet today ?

*** assuming he won nicely today then his card will be well and truely marked; plenty of decent 7 furlong h`caps coming along in the not too distant future ***

Cheers,

Determined,he won easily,although found it hard to get a clear run until well inside final furlong,I will leave it for others to say if it was a vdw type as I,m still learning,also Half Glance an interesting scenario today,running against non stayers.Guest would you consider Half Glance a FORM horse today,it was Class horse,looking forward to any comments

Thanks.

MM was clearly running against horses with inferior class today but surely he wasn`t in form.

That said, his consistency in this class and lower speaks for itself.

Cheers,

I suggested earlier that if winning easily today he would have marked his card.

Thinking about it again, he has had to be dropped in class to win today so perhaps he hasn`t marked his card.

More confusion ?

hello there..i have the greatest respect for you,i asked you a question a while ago to which you did,nt answer, so i,ll ask again,do you posess the books needed to even start unravelling the great puzzle that has been posed,that goes out to you aswell swish,after all you started the thread.

determined,

mr mahoose lost last year due to the pace of the race and the ground.

why do you say he was found wanting? it was a cosistent performance.He was the same horse.

he was in form for today's race.

if he shows the same improvement as continent has done he will be a force to be reckoned with this year on the right surface.

he has well and truly marked his card and has shown sufficient improvement to go to the top.


what does this mean?
in the early stages forget everthing and start again!

[This message was edited by Barney on July 17, 2002 at 07:05 PM.]

is anyone looking at the puzzle set by the 750 k

which books are you refering to?i do have a copy of prof s.hawkins brief history in time and it does go along way as to explaining questions that previously puzzled me.

i did not see your post asking the question before,i was probably to busy at the track or in the offices earning a crust from present races.

i looked at it for ages this morning,with crosschecks and various other bits and bobs,i thought AZUR the most probable,but had conflict with T i would,nt have backed the eventual winner,i thought POLAR WAY a good prospect earlier.

Barney,

MM in his first attempt in that class ( Ascot last year ) he was found wanting. I accept the going wasn`t ideal but he failed in a class B race.

This season he has been beaten in a class B again and also a class C admittedly over the wrong trip on a stiff course with alot of weight (stamina).

His form in in a competitive class C at Newmarket last year should have been good enough today especially against relatively weak opposition and so it proved.

Your comment that he was in form for today however to me takes a little understanding.

Also, the comment that he has marked his card has to be questionable especially if his next race is as I expect is in a competitive B race.

As yet he does not have the form in the book to win a class B. That said, on top of the ground I believe he will win in that grade.

If I continue to be way off the mark please tell me.

Cheers,

no need to be sarcastic my friend,the books i refer to are those which the examples often talked about came from i.e the golden years,racing in my system,systems in my racing,systematic betting,ultimate wheel of fortune,betting the vdw way.have you read them max?

I have about 25 form books, some as old as 1962, (did any of you know it used to come out weekly then, and cost 4 shillings and sixpence?).
Some have been so well thumbed by myself they have fallen apart. Others are in very good nick.
However, I don't believe I have the books that some of VDW's examples are in.
If I had I would study a few, but I aren't that bothered, because I know that if applied correctly the Roushayd method works, and I am well happy/satisfied with that. I have written elsewhere on the board that I have probably put more thousands of hours of back study in then anyone (perhaps).
Now though I record every race as it happens on spreadsheets, and therefore with a few clicks I can back study in detail, (plus RP internet of course).
There, does that answer your question?

Guest,
I OFTEN get the impression you don't want to hear what is being said.
You are near impossible to talk to. That's twice now you have inferred I am asking you how you pick your horses. Well that is just not so.
Show me a few brilliant winners pre-race and I would be very keen to know how you picked them. But as that will never happen I have no idea whether you are better than average at picking winners or not and never will know.
I actually think (although I may be wrong), that you avoid direct questions because you don't know the answers,
Cheers
swish

investor,

neither would i.

Investor,
An interesting question and one that could be asked of more than a few people who have knowledgably opined as to how crap VDW is. BTW its only a rumour that their houses are full of weird and wonderful shaped objects because they decided there was a short cut to assembling flat-pak furniture without using the instructions.
regards,

statajack,

LOL.


determined fancy a chat?

Never had a chat and wouldn`t know how to access the facility.

Point me in the right direction.

If I manage to access the site you`ll have to speak in English my friend !