Personally I dont think everyone posting selections pre race is the best way to do things and only did so with Baracouda to answer the challenge from the other thread. When a loser happens I learn more by people on here telling me why I shouldnt have backed it in hindsight together with a dip in my profits than being put off it beforehand as it is through the pocket that we take most notice. That is of course if people actually back their selections - something some people might consider.
A few people already post their thoughts pre race anyway. More often than not there are different selections from supposedly the same methods - sometimes they get a winner, sometimes not and sometimes they get a winner which could not qualify for a selection if vdw's methods were properly applied.What happens in this case? If youve just had a nice winner by your interpretation of vdw would you take any notice of someone telling you you should never have backed it? What if they put you off backing it before it ran and it won?
These problems can partly be solved by a horse to follow list. On the last page of Systematic betting vdw advocates picking horses who finished 1st or 2nd from either of the top 2 rated races at the Doncaster meeting who were also in the first 3 in the betting market, and betting them when they are placed to win as per his assessment of Desert Orchid in the same book. This year gives us Adiemus and Seven No Trumps.By doing this we have at least ensured that everyone has the same horses to consider and can then discuss them pre race with the arguments about who qualifies already sorted.
For those interested last year gave us Highland Reel and Nimello. HR was never placed to win but Nimello was a certainty on his next race after the Lincoln. Top of all ratings, dropped in class and won at 9/2 but not well placed after that. With Adiemus and Seven No Trumps we have horses who can act on any going so we should have an interesting time.
We can also do this with the 2Yos as 3Yos methods if anyone knows this season's crop of qualifiers. So everyone gets the same horses, everyone can discuss pre race whether to back or not and hopefully everyone's happy.
Any takers?
regards,

good idea statajack,

if he's any sense adiemus will be placed within a month at 1m 4f

Guest.

I put it to you, this is a very different case than those you have mentioned. I am not querying vdw, I'm querying the method you are advocating, two very different things. I believe in vdw, and his methods. I have very big doubts about the methods being used by some to find the solutions.

To make your version work, you need BL and DF to be out of form, vdw never said they were. If that was the case why not just say so? You know as well as I, facts are a little like statistics. You can make them say, or slant the way you want.

Lets look at some facts Beacon Light raced on heavy ground 3 times before the Erin and was beaten every time. Sea Pigeon may not have won a Champion Hurdle at the time he beat BL, but he did have an OR that was at least as good if not better the Night Nurse. Night Nurse was the reigning champion at the time. SP was considered good enough to send to America to challenge for the Colonial Cup. If you look at the race with SP, there was only one way BL could win. Go for home early and try to burn SP off, SP was famous for his finishing kick. I'm sorry, if you think giving SP 4lbs and being beaten 1 length on heavy going is out of form. I wouldn't like to try and be in form to please you. I concede BL had a hard race, vdw knew that, and so would the trainer. I think Fulham went into enough detail on DF so I won't bother to repeat it, but it does make a lot of sense. To make PK fit your way, you need them to be out of form. I think the person that THINKS he has solved it, went to a lot of trouble to TRY and prove they were. All this, and that is without starting on PK, the c/f horse. Not being able to dissect his last races because there are no race comments to work from.

If I'm right, and I am very nearly sure. I can understand why vdw didn't explain it in more detail, it is that easy there is no way to hide it. I think it was you, that said when you solve it, you will kick yourself because it is so easy!

Regards

hi mtoto,

sorry you didnt find anything of use,

the two items required,in my opinion,are there as facts.

but your probably right

Lee

With REF last post even if 2 people looked at the same race i'm sure they would come up with different horses if the form of most the field were closely knit,For the simple reason of most people reading the form of a said race differently that would be my thoughts anyway,
The only way people would come up with the same horse is if there was a horse that was the only class/form horse by a long way but that does not happen a lot,This could be why we keep bringing up the PROMINENT KING RACE.

Michael,

I'm afraid I disagree with your opinion regarding having different selections in the same race. It might be that one would chose to leave the race because, like you say, the field in their opinion is too closely knit, however, once the relevant factor/s are known then to all intense and purpose it ceases to become a guessing game as far as the methodology is concerned. It is then down to whether the individual decides to support a particular horse or not.

Todays early thoughts.

Morning all,

My early thoughts on Kempton.

Rosebery Hcap – 3 most consistent from the 1st 6 in f/c; Elmhurst Boy (9), Lady Bear (10), Scottys Future (12).

E.Boy in my opinion is receiving a lot of plus points whereas the other 2 are not, ie –

L.Bear – won very easily in race class 182 last time when blinkers certainly helped. OR up 8 lbs today over `wrong`distance and against tougher opposition.

S.Future – was he flattered in Lincoln ? Found wanting in this class previously off this OR.

E.Boy – taking on Adiemus last twice ( giving wgt on 1st occasion) has proved difficult. Will he meet an `A` today. Loves Kempton and the jockey booking won`t do any harm.

Opposition – those with higher ability ratings notably Kuster (180), Nimello (194), N.al Bahr (102) have factors against.
***** my worry if anything is the 2 Noseda horses however futher evaluation of both leads me to discount them.

At the available 8/1 E.Boy looks a bet.


Magnolia Stakes – ability ratings alone put B.Arrow (145) and I.House (136) up as probable winners. Both are proven Group 3 horses and todays conditions see no penalties. Close form between the 2 on previous runnings however today I prefer B.Arrow.
3rd on ability is Freefourinternet (120) = has a 3 lbs penalty to carry. Not well placed on OR although open to improvement. Not in 1st 4 in betting.
Lagudin (87) and Chianti (70) well behind on ability but both expected to shown improvement as 4 Y-O`s.
`L` beat B.Arrow easily 02/11/01 in receipt of 10 lbs. Worse off by 13 lbs today. Also, trainer not known for early winners.
`C` has similar credentials to `L`. Trainer has farmed this race in past and horses in form. He`ll have been trained for race but can he beat the older horses with higher ability.
For me today the race is between B.Arrow and Chianti but too many questions = no bet.


2..00 Kempton – Tom Tun is receiving alot of plus points and will be a bet. That said, using one of my own methods brings in Peruvian Chief with a lot of plus`.
Both horses will be backed.

Must go as loads more hard work to do.

Good luck,

Statajack - The methods you mentioned are very good ones and it's a good idea to follow them from the one involving Adiemus/Seven No trumps which threw up many a winner last season again. The 3yo list is now in the hands of those who want to improvise regarding speed figures since Raceform decided to throw them away. As such, the list is less publicly known now and I for one would like to keep it that way, certainly the whole list anyway.

Mtoto - It's the same old problem. You and I both say we know the answer but we can't discuss it in public. I would say though, that I have discussed it with others who have known the answers for many years and they confirmed my findings along with the continued success. Mistakes are still made, but these do become less with practice and experience.

VDW might not have said in print that Beacon Light was not in form though he did say he was well out of it. Remember VDW didn't always spell out the things to look for, which is where I think so many go wrong at some point. He left lot's for us to complete although the clues were there between the lines. I'll say it again, ORs are just opinion and not fact. Barney makes a good point on another thread that having a good OR is rendered useless if the horse is not fit or out of form. The only way in which ORs affect racing is in determining a horses weight on the day. Trainers know how to work round this most of the time. It is better to judge horses on what they actually achieve in public on the track.

VDW mentioned another strong public fancy that lost in the KGVI Chase namely Burrough Hill Lad. He was quite clear that he was not a form horse, but Wayward Lad was and also the class/form horse despite finishing behind BHL earlier that season.

There is a very interesting letter printed in VDW The Final Story which I will endeavour to post on the thread at some stage. As regards todays racing, I am not interested today as there is lots to look forward to this week and I have other things to do for once.

Have a good day doing whatever.

I would however appreciate your comments on my evaluation on todays racing sometime in the future at your convenience of course.

Regards,

Hi Determined

I've found it impossible to reduce this race to one good thing (or even two to dutch), and Elmhurst Boy is certainly one to consider.

Elmhurst Boy can be assumed fit and, as you imply, the jockey booking is a plus. However, he hasn't really managed quite the same level of performance on the turf as he achieved on the perhaps less competitive AW on 19/1/02. For my money, there are two or three others in the race which have run broadly to today's class on turf and, IF they run to their best, should beat him. (Mighty big "if"!)

mtoto,

have you an opinion on one of yours in the irish national??

Barney/Greg

You have picked a bad day for me to join in a discussion, I will later if I can make the time. I would say the horse stands the best chance in the lower class race.

For what ever reason I agree with Guest I can't find a good bet today. Funny you should ask about the Irish National Barney, Commanche Court was the last horse I crossed out today, and the only reason was lack of value in the price. I think he stands up well to all other factors.

Regards

Thanks for your thoughts on the Rosebery.

The horses you refer to as running to this class on turf, in my opinion the day is not there`s today.

I have reasons for discounting them but whether my reasons are the `hidden` factors Guest keeps referring to "god only knows".

What I do find interesting today in this race are the jockey bookings which I feel tell several stories.

Whatever the results today the betting boots are well and truely back on.

Good luck,

Hi Determined

You'll probably be proved right. But the placing of one you mentioned - Kuster - is not without interest. Mind you, with the trainer in question - who for me is in the same category as our friend Tony Newcombe - I'd not be confident about assessing what it means!

As you seem to be returning to betting, and I'm leaving the Rosebery alone, I'll keep my fingers crossed that Elmhurst Boy wins for you.

determined,

i have looked at the rosebury but end up trying to find the winner,

the best i come up with is lady bear which has lots of positives but a major factor against being the distance,saying that she shaped well enough to suggest the extra wouldnt be a problem, but it was a poor race she won.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

So far I have not read Guests analysis so I'm hoping I get the same Class/Form horses as him.

3.15 Towcester
In form horses are Fionnula's Rainbow, Lannkaran, Fornaught Alliance and Dick McCarthy.
I make the C/F horse Fornaught Alliance with Dick McCarthy second.
The names that crop up are Fornaught Alliance , Dick McCarthy and Lannkaran.
I think Dick McCarthy will win. Its getting weight from everyone.

Selection Dick McCarthy

3.50 Fairyhouse
In form horses are Commanche Court, Copernicus, Cregg House, Ellenjay, Good Shuil, Takagi, The Bunny Boiler and Timbera.
I make the C/F horse Commanche Court with The Bunny Boiler second.
Commanche Court is a class horse but it carried 12-0 last time in a level weights affair. Now its giving weight to everyone. I don't think it can do that and win.
The Bunny Boiler is at home at this level and is getting 28lbs from Commanche Court. I think it will win.

Selection The Bunny Boiler

4.20 Chepstow
In form Horse are Copeland, Vol Solitaire and General.
I make Copeland the C/F horse with Vol Solitaire second.
Another case of the C/F horse giving huge chunks of weight to all. Again Copeland is a class horse but I don't believe it can give away 28lbs to all and win. Again The second C/F is comfortable at this level of class and is getting 28lbs. My choice is Vol Solitaire.

Selection Vol Solitaire

3.55 Wetherby
In form horses are Double Timer, Able Native, Just Lizzie and Exstoto.
I make the C/F Just Lizzie with Able Native second.
In this case I think the C/F has lots going for it, appearing as it does in more than one method.

Selection Just Lizzie

4.30 Wetherby
In form horses are Gey Abbey , The Granby, Native Man and Emperor's Magic.
I make the C/F Grey Abbey with Emperor's Magic second.
Another case of the C/F giving away weight to consistent horses. I don't think Emperor's Magic is comfortable at this level. So I prefer the 3rd C/F Native Man highly consistent, comfortable at this level of class, getting 24lbs from Grey Abbey and only giving 4 lbs to Emperor's Magic.

Selection Native Man

Just got that in before the first evaluated race!

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog
Copeland has won with 12stone before in this
sought of class.


Maggsy

Hello All,

Fulham - I've just read my post and I think I come across as a bit snotty. That was not the intention. Sorry if I offended.

As to BL well lets go back to Guests example.
Horse A is in a class 50 race, has run nowhere in a 70, 7th in a 40 and won a 20.
The horse is in form, its won. But at what level is it in form?. Certainly not at level 50. In and around level 20, yes.

Look at BL, its form is dropping as it puts in good performances at lower and lower class. Eventually it comes second at class 39. It's in form at around 39. It should have won against Sea Pidgeon if it was in form at a higher level. It's not in form at class 90 (is that 90 in £ or punts?), the Erin.

In Betting the VDW way( chapter 5 of Systematic Betting) VDW gives many examples of in form performances at lower class and sums up with "Form is what they did and class is the level at which it was achieved".

BL was not in form at the level of the Erin, it was in the past but not at the time of the race.

The same arguement could be applied to Decent Fellow, distance 3rd in class 22. If it was in form at the level of the Erin it would have done considerably better. It's in form at about 22 or less.

I fully expect to be corrected and learn a lot in the doing so. However I think that makes a lot of sense.

All the best
hedgehog

If what you say is true then why does the
erins keep coming up with p/k. Im sure the people who bring it up from time to time know a lot more on the subject than me as i've only just started with VDW ,thanks for the reply if i've got the wrong end of it sorry but with so many VDW formulites out there i find it strange that not many people agree with VDW as it is his formula we are trying to get to grips with.

thanks again.

Hi Hedgehog

Its not a question of being corrected, as there is no definitive answer. Rather, in my view if we (we being those who contribute to the thread, not just you and me) are engaged in serious discussion its a question of finding a rational and consistent basis for identifying selections and non-selections.

On your way of looking at things, for example, how could you regard Prominent King as being in form - 2nd in a class 6 race prior to the Erin?