The weight issue dosen`t always stop them winning so I am lead to believe.

Mtoto, who`s opinion is always worth listening to, I believe will only back horse in the top 1/3 of the handicap.

Each race has a different problem to solve.

In Lewis Island`s case today at least he isn`t trying to carry weight whilst going up in class.

Its those types I believe will always struggle.

Barney.

VDW has indeed writen a few books/ pamphlets, in all of them he has given a clue about were to start when assesing a race. The usual starting point is class and /or form. I can't find a starting point you work from as you seem to disregard these factors. If you were to write a book I'm sure it would be a best seller, as you appear to found a new way. Perhaps you can explain why you didn't think PA was not a good bet, apart from the price?

Determined.

Why is a s/f of 100 worth more at Ascot, than Ripon, if achieved in the same grade? Surely the important thing is the class of the horses that finished behind it when the figure was scored. The other important thing is how did the horse run when the figure was achieved. Was it flat out? under pressure, etc. Or not extended? not under pressure? , etc. These facts are as important, or even more important than the final figure.

Guest.

Would it be possible to list a few more of your recent c/form horses? Did you have Palace Affair as one today? I ask because I find we have agreed about quite a few in the recent past. Feet So Fast, Millenary to name but 2. I ask because as you know I work in a different way to you. I'm trying to find out why I agree with your findings, if I am so wrong about how vdw worked. I'm also a bit surprised you had Millenary as the class/form horse didn't he fail for the same reason as Beacon Light? You say this last race was weaker than the Ascot race, I can except that. Do you think this race at Newmarket was weaker than his last race at the meeting? all be it a slightly different course.

Be Lucky

statajack
or`s are only opinion,everyone is entitled to their own views,lets forget non hcaps,lets talk h`caps,opinions are not very important,but this so called opinion,actually decides how much weight a horse will carry in every grade??????

epiglotis,

a rippon figure is better if the horse is proven on an ascot type track, if its ripon, brighton, windsor, epsom etc it's not worth a carrot at ascot types

mtoto,

i can explain very easily but that defeats the object of putting them on.

if everyone thinks they are worthless i wont bother.

Barney,

I don't want you to stop posting. I want to learn anything, and everything I can from you and anyone else. I may not be the sharpest knife in the draw, but your postings are too cryptic for me. You gave me some examples and I can't see the pattern. You post horses and I can't see the pattern. Guest posts are cryptic but when I sit down and think about them I can usually understand them. That's not to say I always agree, so I ask questions. Guest answers them without giving too much away, so hopefully I learn a bit more about how people think. All I'm saying with you I can't even work out where you start, or what you are looking for. If I can't (I may be wrong) I wonder how many others understand and learn from you.

There's cryptic, and then there's Barney.

Be Lucky

mtoto,

Put in the time and effort and you will see a pattern IF you look in comparison to the rest of the field.

they will be any or, any sf, from different classes, up in distance down in dist etc. However the common factor is they are all the best horse in the race under todays circumstances.

i know some dont like this but if it helps

four good things tonight were

mornin reserves
inter vision
kentucky blue
scotts view

And 4 good things for tomorrow are..........................................?
Don't worry if you are too busy right now, you can always tell us tomorrow night.

A while ago on another thread, you named a little system that I thought was was sound in logic using speed figures................correct?

And yet on here you rubbish speed figures (and OR's,(Greg has just told you that without OR's no one would know what weight to allocate a horse).

Now I would like you to pay attention to what I am about to say!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You totally believe that you should stick to the first 4/5 in betting...........correct?

Well how do you think the tissue men decide what will be the first 4/5 in the betting?

It couldn't be that they pick the ones with the best speed figs and/or OR'S could it?????????

You show me any card with no betting, but with speed figs and OR's and I shall tell you the first few in the betting.

Obviously I can't prove that what I am saying is correct, but if I am wrong how do you think they pick the first 4/5 in the betting?

Allright, I was sarcastic first paragraph of this post, but now I am offering serious advice and would like a serious answer if I may,
Cheers
Swish

Further to the above, any of you VDW chaps............how do you think the first 4/5 in the original betting forecast are decided???

Mtoto,
That obviously does not include you because you already know............not that you are not free to comment of course.
(For anyone new to board, that may sound sarcastic towards Mtoto, but it certainly IS NOT!
Mtoto helped me a great deal some time ago, and believe me, he knows what he is talking about. Further to that his kindly attitude with everyone has only to be admired, (not like me who sometimes flies off the handle!!!!).

Any way come on chaps, HOW DO YOU THINK THE FIRST 4/5 IN THE BETTING ARE ORIGINALLY DECIDED?
Cheers
Swish

swish,

to one extent you are totaly right,so can i, you can also find ones that should be in the first five but are 14/1.

The point i am trying to make is that there are factors which underpin sf and or which need to be understood too understand lots of vdw's examples(i know that your not bothered but some are) where this information is not provided.

I know what mtoto and you do, i know you can both find winners, but there is more to be found in vdw's methods.

a lot of a horses true form is hidden (15-ppp), because they are not all capable of going all the way to the top.Horses are fairly consistent really.There are some obviously consistent and some not so.

in my opinion those four yesterday were true favourites, the compilers sometimes get it wrong because they muddle up sf and or with real form and class.

SF and OR and CLASS rating's and FORM ratings in themselves are usefull guides, but they are not what vdw was about really.dont get me wrong they will find lots of winners when the balance is right and the perfect picture is there.

Maybe its just me because i dont want to look at the lovely clock and all the cogs and pendulums and fancy fingures, I want to strip it down to bits and see how it all fits together.

In my opinion 2 examples spring to mind today.

Hidden form - Leadership. His true potential will be evident today.

Lady Two K - a false favourite.

Cheers,

or`s are not important???
page 15 rp today
handicappers decide the outcome of handicap races!,lets forget the ancient scrolls of the dutchman for a minute,and talk about now,graham mccourt bought a horse called katfish keith,now this is the words of a trainer regarding or`s.
we paid 34000 gns for him and he won first time for us,only to go up 7lb(this 7lb is an extra 7 on or),and after that harsh treatment from the handicapper it then took him all year to come back down in the weights.
a similar thing happened with a horse who won a selling hurdle for us was put up 17 lb for his effort.
yes i understand what barney says about the trainer deciding what weight his horse carries,but the only way a trainer decides the weight is by what grade he runs in,only that.
but the handicapper decides his weight in them garades.
but as barney was right in a way,there is also a flaw in that argument barney as horses have a class threshold.
this is fact!!!!!!!!!!!
example____
a horse called cauda equina,all 11 of his wins had been in races of 0-80 or lower,so this is his class threshold,the same horse had 48 runs above this class(above 0-80)and had no wins and 7 places out of 48 starts that is dismal
but in his 41 runs at 0-80 and lower he had 11 wins(an impressive 27 percent strike rate)and eleven places,he was frequently outpaced when going above his class threshold.
you can all wake up now!!!!!!!

greg,

i know what you are saying, but that goes to show how crap the trainer is, he could have done a number of things to get the horse to improve by seven pounds and while he was trying he would have come down a point or two.

hes better off packing it in if 7lb means his horses never win again. Just think of his poor owners.

215a

1st c/f tough speed
2nd c/f naviasky
3rd c/f duck row
4th c/f wannabe around
5th c/f sea star
6th c/f fallen star
7th c/f inglenook

form horses

duck row
fallen star
inglenook
naviasky
tough speed
wannabe around

form not good enough from above
fallen star
naviasky

weight factors against

tough speed

that leaves three
duck row 8/1
inglenook 9/1
wannabe around 9/1

on inspection of form

lots of pace in this race will find most out in latter stages duck row should prevail.

channel four are making as big a fuss of leadership as they did about mr dinos.
think i will look at that one.

morro castle is a stupid price

Tough Speed will just about win and the way the race will be run he has most to fear from Sea Star who will try and make all under a typical canny ride from T.Quinn.



Leadership - form rock solid. Speed figures show his true ability and the RHR confirm he`s got a big chance. Consistent.
Carries 8 lbs less weight also which won`t do him any harm.

Only danger is Kelburne.


Lady Two K whilst consistent will be outclassed (in my opinion) and if we get a true run race the top 2 in the weights sre the `class` and will have the race to themselves.

F.Hill could have gone to Ascot for a bigger prize but why carry 9-11 when you can carry 9-04.

Good luck,

I dont plan to bet on this but for what it's worth my view is Sea Star slightly ahead of Tough Speed. I consider these two to be too close to make a confident distinction bearing in mind the unexpected occurances of practical racing. My selections are not arrived at by VDW, I rejected this race (for serious study) pretty much on sight so only spent about 30 seconds on my selections. I'm not making this statement as any kind of covering my arse in advance rather I'll be interested to see how my conclusions compare with those of genuine VDWists who spend however long they spend on it.

Determined, you posted as I was writing, very interesting.

greg,

mc court could be bullshiting

well see after today at chester