Investor

The weight issue was one of the factors which made it clear that Kutub, which I see as the c/f, was not a bet.

Reaching a judgement on which horses are "in form" for the purpose of isolating the "class/form" horse bears little or no relation to what is ordinarily meant when saying that a horse is in form. Its a meretricious but useful "approach" which VDW did not explicitly disclose, which is sometimes absolutely straightforward but sometimes a matter of tricky judgement - as with several of the horses VDW explicitly described as "class/form" horses and (in my opinion) Kutub in the PoW yesterday.

An example is the oft-mentioned Beacon Light. Views differ on this (Mtoto, for example, disagrees with me). But in his race before the 1978 Erin BL came a close second, giving weight to a horse with a higher OR and recording a decent sf. Some, myself included, would take the view that that was a decent performance and, in the ordinary meaning of the phrase, showed BL to be in form. However, although he did not explicitly state it, there is good reason to take the view that VDW did not regard BL as "in form" for his particular purpose, and that he regarded Prominent King, with a much inferior ability rating, as the c/f in the Erin.

everybody on this thread knows how you feel about giving selections out,and who could critisize you for that,nobody i feel iv,e always enjoyed your posts,you,re obviously very intelligent but i still feel you have negativity towards the methods youuhold so close to your heart

Investor

Sorry, I'm not quite sure what you mean, but if you are suggesting that I'm not uncritical of VDW's work, you are right.

On the positive side, VDW wrote much that I've found invaluable and, like Statajack what I've learnt has made a significant financial difference to my life. And for that I'm very grateful.

On the negative side, VDW wrote some palpable rubbish, eg on aspects of probability. Also (though this is merely my belief) I think he did some of his analyses retrospectively and allowed himself to "see" things as clear which were in fact problematic. (By way of example, consider
the Beau Ranger race (1.40 Kempton, 27/12/84).)

Like serious work in any field, VDW's needs to be read with a critical, rather than uncritical, way.

Fulham.

Don't know if it is a misprint, I do agree 100% about BL not being out of form. Maybe I haven't explained myself very well. You have explained my thinking to a tee.

Statajack and Guest, thanks for your replies to my question about speed. I can assure you both the form is then taken in consideration.Guest have you any thoughts on the lack of vdw selections that have had less than 3 runs?

Barney.

I have to ask, could you explain your thinking that s/f and OR's are rubbish? I am asking the question this way so you can answer without giving any secrets away. As they obviously don't play any part in your form assessments. Both Statajack and Guest say s/f's CAN play a part in assessing ability. VDW himself based 2 methods around the use of s/f's. Guest is adamant weight plays a big part in racing, weight is designated from the OR. Add to this the majority of handicaps are won by a horse in the top 3rd of the weights. I read today 48% of all handicaps are won by a horse in the top 4 of the OR's. To be honest I haven't had time to confirm this. If the handicapper is right in the majority of handicaps, why do you think his expertise doesn't follow in all races? When I say right, I mean the horses he thinks are the best, win the most races. Look forward to your thinking on this.

Be Lucky

scotts view=beacon light

mtoto,

i will have a think and get back later.

Hi Mtoto,

I have had a good think about what you asked. I find myself going round in circles trying to think of a different way to express, what has previously been stated.

In view of this I will use a few of vdw’s own words and statements.

The majority of punters seem to require a numerate basis upon which to evaluate races and there are many ways this can be done, although the two most frequently used concepts are handicap ratings based on weights and speed figures based on time. Systematic betting, chapter six.

In our modern society we are constantly required to evaluate and it is perhaps inevitable that it should largely be done on a numerate basis. The majority of racing fans would be at a complete loss if this means of evaluation were not available to them when faced with the task of finding a winner. The golden years, letter 47.

The value of any ratings must be determined from the basis used to compile them and in this respect I suggest form must play a major role. The golden years, letter 24.


In conclusion I think this was vdw’s real intent when dishing out his instructions.

To continually suggest that ratings are the answer to how vdw evaluated a horse and its chances of winning is firstly, misleading, to others trying to come to terms with the methods and secondly, wrong.

Every single vdw selection that I have looked at, I have done so without OR or SF, and I can arrive at the conclusion without needing them.

As I have said before there will always be some overlap.

Without doubt Mtoto, judging by your stated strike rate and sp returns, you are making your method pay but its not vdw’s.

just to continue,

the trainer decides what weight a horse will carry NOT THE HANDICAPPER.

He has free choice of where to place his charges or not.

When the handicapper decides which horses will run in a race it surely will be the time to pack it in.

I accept that race cards change from the entries list and vdw made comment on these very facts.Its probable that this is the reason that the top bit is more reliable, as the relative forcast weight will not change much from this area.

he may not do as well in the stakes and listed etc. as all trainers know what the allocated weight is to be and that the REAL FORM can't be interfered with to the same extent.

Hi Mtoto,

Sorry for misrepresenting your position re Beacon Light.

Hi Barney.

Thanks for the time and effort spent in your answer to my question. However why am I wrong to suggest the use of speed and OR ratings can help? Did vdw himself not suggest the use of other ratings? If I remember correctly he said the use of speed and official ratings could be used as a guide.

All of the vdw works are based on a numerical platform. He says remember the ratings are a guide, all rating including the ones he showed you how to compile. He used ratings to balance the form, how else can it be done? You can't take a one factor in isolation, this includes the race value. I have said before 10 horse run in a £5,000 race, the next week the same horses run in a £10,000 race. The class of the horses hasn't gone up, so what do YOU use the judge the class of them? I except the horses may be made to try harder for the bigger prize, or a horse may have been laid out for the race. That doesn't change the class of the horse, you still have to gauge if the horse is capable of winning the prize.

I may be cynical, but if there are two of anything, and one is given away free. I automatically think the other one must be more important, or worth more. I have thought for along time the other ratings were the key. Don't choke Guest, you have heard me say it before :-)) Even after vdw went to great lengths to show any rating could fit the bill. The point I'm trying to make is how am I hurting, or stopping anyone that is trying to make vdw pay? VDW used other ratings!

You say the handicapper doesn't say who will run in the race, would you like to re think that statement? He sets the grade of the races by saying what the top OR is. He gives the horses the OR. If the horses with highest OR's pull out the weights are raised. Horses with an OR over 115 can't run in handicaps (on the flat), horses with a low OR are the first balloted out. He may not be able to say you will run in this race, but he can say you can't run in this race.

Be Lucky

Quite a bit of activity on the forum and I will make further comment myself in the next few days, but for now all I will say is that handicaps and non-handicaps are obviously different and with that in mind I did make Feet So Fast the class/form horse and not as some might expect, Artie.

One other little point is this regarding Kutub/Millenary - Had Kutub figured at much shorter odds FTO then a better case could have been made. He didn't though and despite (for some strange reason) going off a short fav at Epsom, the end result was a poor effort. Those with good memories (or a form book) may have noticed that last season Millenary failed badly in the same Epsom race, but bypassed it this time around. He quite likes Newmarket though.

hi mtoto,

Nothing personal as i am sure you know.

the ratings can help, but ultimately this direction will stop anyone from getting to the bottom of it.

Mtoto,
The point you make about the 5k and 10k races is exactly the reason why the ability rating is useful. If we are averaging the win prize money for the horses in each race, the horse which won the 10k race but is in reality only really competitive at around 5k will have an ability rating less than one that can win regularly at around 10k.
The use of speed figures by VDW for 3 year olds is simply to ensure that a horse is not thrown out of consideration just because it is unexposed. It may not yet have had a chance to show its true ability, but it doesnt follow that it will neccesarily be a selection because it is in the top 2 speed ratings, they are just a guide to a possible contender who may have been overlooked. By the same process, a 3YO with only a marginally better ability rating but a poor SF should be treated with caution, but again it doesnt follow that it should be automatically rejected.
regards,

Not much in the vdw mould today,by my reckoning.One that appears to fit the bill is at Epsom this evening,Chief Cashier.It has a lot of plus points,any thoughts anybody.
Guest I would be at variance with you about Millenary,It was the class/form horse when beaten at Ascot.

Chief Cashier and Polish Baron (F 3:15) are my only bets today. Nothing to do with VDW of course.

Epiglotis,

unlucky with polish baron

830e

1st c/f is conundrum
2nd c/f is chief cashier
3rd c/f is pay the silver



cont..

form horses,

conundrum
pay the silver
suave performer



cont..

form is tricky

neg conundrum
pos suave dancer,pay the silver.

not one to play but for fun

conundrum 1st, pts 2nd, sp 3rd

guest,

its funny how epsom can sometimes tangle up their legs.Why is that do you think?

your legs would tangle up a bit running full pelt down that gradient with a little man sitting on your back and hitting your arse with a big stick.