Crock,just to add,I Cried For You,also look at its OR,today.

Hi Determined,

I can certainly identify and sympathise with what your going through.Many times I have felt like giving up when all the effort put in seems to come to nothing.Little by little things do start to fit into place however.With me it is a slow process.

We recently went away for a weeks holiday.No computer,no Racing Post,no horseracing.It did me a power of good.I came back refreshed and raring to go.I came back to a weeks worth of posts and found in one of guests and one of Statajacks posts something that settled in my own mind a point I had been struggling with for a while.You never know when you are going to spot the next nugget of information on this thread or should I say reach a level where you can make most use of the help being offered.I have found a couple of Statajacks recent posts particularly useful.It is very easy to think that putting extra effort in is whats required but it is important sometimes to stand back and review what has gone on.

I think Lee's advice to stick to betting your own selections and following what you think are VDW selections on paper, was spot on.One of the hardest things I've had to do was overcoming my urge to bet.I have tried betting while learning and for me it didn't work.I used to think that I should be getting some immediate return for the effort I put in.I now think I will get a return but it may be a year or two down the line.

I considered Leadership yesterday but I wasn't sure what it was capable of or how it would cope against older horses.Did somebody say that Stoute was no Mark Prescott? I couldn't have picked Vintage Premium either though.Yet again a reversal of form.I hate these scenarios,just can,t see them at all.The only way I can see me dealing with them is by making a book.That way I could end up with Son of Love and Florida Pearl.I would end up picking some of the same winners as Guest and Barney ,for example, that way but with a reduced profit margin.

I am afraid at the end of the day,Determined, you are going to have to live up to your name if you want to get to the bottom of this methodology.

Best of luck.

I doubt many of us managed to pinpoint the winner of this one but if anyone still questions vdw's idea of using speed figures for 3 YOs as an indicator of possible ability alongside the normal ability rating they should check which horse was top rated.
regards,

As we all should know, experts can get it wrong in all walks of life and those that produce forecasts are no exception. VDW pointed this out by noting Little Nugget winning on April 21, 1978, which was out of the first six in his paper, in fact it was not mentioned. He also gave Rivage Bleu as an example for us all to study, which, if I recollect properly, was forecast to go off the complete outsider of eight. Only Nigel Shields, the Sporting Life's form expert found it, but not Travado. These were examples of the trainer telling us they were really out to win (not literally of course). There were a few more yesterday at very nice prices, one of which, for point of reference, was Vintage Premium - also found by understanding form vdw style. Leadership was a danger but there was no value in its price, in my opinion, and where some may have made a book or left the race alone, I felt there was comparatively alot of value in VP to let it go wasted, in what, to my mind, was essentially a two horse race.

Personally, I do not try to achieve an 80+% strike rate as I rate profit the most important aspect of investing, which is what pays for holidays etc. The thinking behind having such a high strike rate is that you are able to put more of your pennies on. In reality though, the practicalities of doing this and ones own threshold limits prevents it happening unless, of course, you start a tipping line which doesn't appeal to me.

The psychology can be seen in the case of Vintage Premium. I find it far more satisfying backing a 20/1 shot that is a true even money chance than say, backing an even money shot whose true odds are slightly odds on, even in a group one race. You'd need to have a monkey on the even money shot as opposed to a pony on Vintage Premium to get the same return, thats if they both win of course as I'm sure you'll agree.

I agree with the opinion that threads like this are of much more worth than those just giving tips. I have learnt an immense amount and tried to give as much back as I can without ruining it. Those still trying to crack the VDW conundrum are, imho, in need of inspiration rather than perspiration. When asked, VDW said CLASS WAS KINGPIN in understanding form and was the most important factor to consider, therefore it seems appropriate to me at least, that one should take class ratings seriously. As has been mentioned previously, OR's were not readily available to the betting public in VDW's heyday so why are there those who appear to insist they are an integral part in understanding form today.

There has been plenty of inspirational advice given on this thread for those interested in trying to understand the methodology. I do not doubt the effort put in by some already, you just need that lightbulb to turn on above your head.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Determined - I know exactly how you feel. At the moment I feel I'm making no progress at all. I think, and thats all I can say think, I've found some of the factors. But the missing answer as Guest puts it eludes me. There are days when I feel like I'm running after my own shadow.

Don't give up.

As a previous poster put it we're both in need of a bit of inspiration and that comes at the most unexpected times.

Stick with it. You'll get there.

Remember your going to make a paradigm shift from your current ways to VDW and that will be difficult and at times even painful until you have a breakthrough and then it will be the easiest thing in the world to do.

Just be a little more patient with yourself.

I for one know you'll do it in the end as I hope I will.

All the best
hedgehog

Well placed on bare ability ratings.

Well placed on consistency.

Not well placed in the forecast but he would have been picked up using the crosschecks.

Proven weight carrier and in good class h`caps.

Weren`t both his wins this season `soft` races ?

That said his placed effort in an `A` race was very good form.

All that said, trying to concede 17 lbs actual weight to Leadership ?

When ruling out half the field because of the draw I accept VP was overpriced but I took the view `L` Ascot form was better than the form shown by VP.

Where did I go wrong ?

WEIGHT - where does this fit in the methodology ?


******************************************

Thanks to all those who have offered generous comment, advise, etc.

do you both sell time shares?


2 horse race-bollocks

Crock is the right word. Crock of Sh**

jimmy,

we would have got that with just the s and three stars.

WE CAN WORK THINGS OUT ROUND HERE YOU KNOW!!

determined,

what one horse has to give to another has virtually nothing to with it.It is on what it can do on its own merits.

I agree with that. And congratulate you on making one of the first clear and meaningful posts on this thread for a long time. I dont know what it has to do with VDW though(?)

Having just re-read the Pegwell Bay and Roushayd examples I noticed that there was no reference to weight.

That fact would support Barney`s latest post (and in English - well done mate).

That said, weight certainly played its part in Canny Danny and from memory The Bunny Boiler ?

Cheers,

Determined/HedgeHog - I can only echo the same advice given by VDW many years ago. Give up betting until a full understanding has been gained where VDWs methods are concerned. Prove to yourself that the methods work first. This need not involve money, because if you have got it wrong it will cost a tidy packet is lost wagers. Of course losing bets can't be avoided here and there even when a proper VDW understanding is applied.

My own advice is don't let the research or the game take over your life too much. It is true that you have to practically live the game to make it pay consistently, but give yourself some time away from racing every so often. Afterall, in the overall scheme of things, it's only horses running round a field. It's nice to make a few bob from their exertions regularly, but there is more to the short time we have in life.

mark,

you have mail

guest

those type of clues dont seem to work for some reason.

Hello Crock,

I've just reread your post about Vintage Premium and I was wondering how you managed to eliminate Rasm who was one of the 3 most consistent from the first 6 in the forecast? Rasm beat Vintage Premium lto didn't he? Does being 4 stalls wider make that much difference in a 22 runner race? Then there is I Cried For You.Again ahead of Vintage Premium lto,ahead on ability and in the next stall to Vintage Premium.

Sorry,I'm not having a go at you.My questions are borne of frustration.I would be very interested if Guest, Statajack and Lee could comment if they saw Vintage Premium as a good thing.

Please direct me to the post that said the John Smith's was a 2 horse race. Can't find it! Well there's a surprise!

My post only said that both first and second were highlighted using the VDW ability rating.

Do you disagree? Why? How?

oops, sorry, a couple of people following the VDW thread backed a 20/1+ winner (not me I hasten to add). Can't quite stomach that can you lads?

Cheers

Sorry your last post crossed with mine.

I have never said that VINTAGE PREMIUM was a good thing (contrary to the opinion of the village idiot). I only pointed out that both first and second were highlighted in the first 4 of VDW's ability ratings.

For what it's worth, I studied this race long and hard and concluded that the race had too much conflict for a serious bet. After studying the highest ability ratings I came to the conclusion that the Ascot Listed Handicap seemed to be a key race and on that basis found it impossible to rule out RASM (particularly given the trainer often does well with these types).

My only bet on the race was 12 x small stake reverse forecasts covering I CRIED FOR YOU, KIROVSKI, VINTAGE PREMIUM & RASM. And if I'm being honest if it wasn't my turn to 'put on' our local Racing Club's Saturday Big Race bet then I probably wouldn't even have done that!

How does highlighting that both 1st and 2nd figured well in the ability ratings all of a sudden transform itself into a 'good thing' on this thread?

Cheers

Bensam 14th July 7:01. Are you hinting at why it takes so long to understand VDW?

Sorry, I'm not very good at these cryptic posts

Your postings refers to one of Bensam's, What are you asking me?

Cheers