Statajack.

The point I was trying to make to Barney, or anyone else that uses race value as a guide, there is a flaw in the method. If a horse has only won a weak £10,000 race he gets an inflated ability rating. By the same token if a horse has won a maiden worth say £3,500 and then wins a strong race worth the £10,000 the ability rating doesn't reflect that by taking an average of the 2. Especially if these 2 should meet in their next run. There needs to be another point of reference. VDW appears to advocate this method to avoid the nearly horses, but there are other ways to do this.

Barney.

Epsom is a unique course. The last 7f is all down hill, with a pronounced camber. Throw in the corner. The momentum taking tired horses faster than they would normally go, into the camber. Not surprising some look as if they are falling over themselves.

Be Lucky

mtoto,

i do not use race value as a guide, quite the opposit actually i ignore race values untill the very last minute.

Barney.

I surrender, you don't use race value as a guide. You can assess races that have no comments in running. The consistency rating were of no help, you don't use ratings. OR's and s/f's are rubbish. Barney I don't know how you do it! Expect you will reveal all in your book.

Regards You don't need any luck!

Thanks for the sympathetic comment.

You will have no doubt noticed he does not find many winners either.

Thank God for Betfair,and their place facility,a very useful tool.
Jimmy,I have a very funny feeling that you will become a vdw disciple yet.

Hi mtoto,

I am only trying to help people to get to the bottom of it.

Rating races with no comments is just as hard as with comments.With no comment Races its difficult to know what a horse actually did from the distance.That is why vdw only spotted the outstanding performances(in comparisson to the other runners).However, in the RP that morning there may have been comments, I dont know.

I dont need to write a book as it would be going over old ground.VDW has already written it and given examples to test it on.I can see why he didn't splash out the whole lot in front of everyone though.

I am in the process of developing a hindsight to forsight convertion pill.It's to slow at the moment but i am trying to get it to work more quickly.LOL.

Anything but seriously,the factors you omit from the list are the ones that i recommend people should be looking at in more detail.

Jimmy,

you will always have a special place in my heart, it was with you that i posted my first ever vdw winner.Remeber Rapscallion?

no winner what do i do?

255y

1st c/f is palce affair
2nd c/f is good girl

form horses

agrippina
good girl
lady dominatrix
lipstick
palace affair

on inspection of the form

stricktly speaking agrippina has the beating of palace afair,but there is lipstick to consider and she is more unexposed.its here there is conflict so NEXT RACE.

NOT MUCH FUN BUT A WINNER

heretic is c/f and is far better than the others
tedsdale for the forcast should bring a smile.

Mtoto,
I agree, but there is a flaw of one sort or another in every method of measuring class. On its own using win prize money may not be as good as some other ways but it fits into the method perfectly. Why use ORs or speed figures to measure ability when they are the result of someone's opinion and not fact? There is also the point to consider that there are plenty of horses that run well in big races and get awarded high speed figs or ORs but hardly ever manage to win. If you like SFs or ORs or private handicap ratings you can always use them as one of the "2 different ratings" part of the method so where is the problem?
Every part of the method touches on a different aspect and links them all together. Why make it harder by removing one of the links?
regards,

How much weight does `H` have to concede to Nimello.

`N` is not in form but conditions will suit today and he may just produce better than he`s shown so far this season and that would be enough conflict to stop me backing `H` today.

*** I haven`t even looked at the race in any detail whatsoever but knowing what `N` can do ***

Is the `ability` still there ?

Lewis Island. 3rd most consistent/highest ability/dropping in class from LTO/improving speed figures. Looks good to me.
Regards.

I haven`t looked at the race but in view of Statjack`s comments on speed figures.

They may be improving but how do they compare with the opposition ?

Good luck,

Isn't Statajack's point that speed figures are always higher in higher class races and as such cant be compared across different classes?

May have had a hard race last time and carries 12 lbs more actual weight today.

Please do not feel I`m trying to pick fault.

I will not be backing anything today (as yet anyway) so rest assured I`ll be shouting him home for you.

**** I`m very much a novice so my opinion shouldn`t concern you ****

Again, good luck

No idea.

I`m still learning and will be for along time yet.

Then again.

A speed figure of say 100 at Ascot in a class B would surely be better than 100 recorded at Ripon in a class B ?

The truth is I've never looked at speed figures so don't know how they work but my immediate feeling would be that the Ripon figure is better?!

Thanks for the pointer, I missed the weight issue as I was looking at the weight carried in its last winning race. Thanks again.
P.S. I posted on the board hoping to get advice from more experienced race readers as I'm still going dizzy trying to fathom the V.D.W. methodology.
regards.