Epiglotis

I totally agree with you - (i wrote something broadly similar many many pages ago) ..As often you can do all the form study and find theres no value in the selection or no selection. I will assess the betting make up first - is it an open or restricted race - before a bit of analyses later. Time isnt free .. theres an opportunity cost involved - in business you charge for your time - so if you spend 4 hours - I would say thats £100 return at least I would want. Or theres something else I would like to do. I prefer to treat it like an exam - if I cant get a selection within a certain time limit - I'll leave it.

Thanks for the reply. To tell the truth even I am beginning to find my posts on this thread boring, meaningless and repetitive so I'm going to give them a rest for a while at least. I hope those who're looking find what they're after.

I think vdw said each horse was rated for ability,but only the first 5/6 in the betting that received the full treatment.In other words I think if horses outside the first 5/6 had a high ability rating and/or were well in on consistency,that they were scrutinised further.I think the ability rating helped to eliminate a lot of horses.

If anybody collecting the old form books is interested in the 1979 Flat book then there is a copy available at R.E & G.B Way of Newmarket. Tel: 01638 507217

I had this 'on reserve' and they have just notified me that they now have it in stock. I've obtained a copy elsewhere in the meantime.

Cheers

Only 7 points (ability) seperate the 1st 4 in the betting.

Added to that 2 of the runners not well placed in the f/c have far higher abilty ratings than the f/c runners.

Too much conflict ?

A closer inspection of ALL the runners in my opinion makes Dawn Invasion a decent investment at odds against.

** as long as the heavy rain about hasn`t made the going testing **

Fulham - The short answers to both your questions are yes and yes. VDW did only refer to the missing link or key reluctantly for want of a better terminology.

The question of form raises it's head, as it always does in most races, in the Grp 2 1m 4f Prince Of Wales race at Newmarket on Tuesday.

Is Kutub in form ?

Or is Millenary the class/form horse ?

Certainly both horses are taking on lesser opposition than of late.

Guest,

if you feel able to help,

why on his reapearance in a group 2 was he unsupported, then having not shown much was fav when upped to g1.

Approx` £31k in recorded bets so somebody agreed with me.

The illusion horse runs here and will win.

I hope.

good morning...MILLENARY has been a beaten fav on the last four occasions,i feel this is enough of a negative not to bet,i can,t see a reversal with kutub judging by there newmarket run. both the said horses are also giving a stone to simeon,a highly consistent horse,but again out of it on ability, and does,nt get ratings support.conflict all the way for me,conclusion watch with mother

Remember VDW said to use non weighted speed figures in tandem with the ability rating when assessing 3 YOs. How does Dawn Invasion compare with the other runners in its race if this is done? Contrast that with the 7.50 at Ripon, a race over a similar distance where the winner stood out like a beacon and was sent off only a few points less than DI. If memory serves I seem to have made this point before and not so long ago either.
regards,

good to see you posting again even though it contradicts every conclusion i have come to regarding this race.i really do fancy simeon today and it is interesting to read that you think it is out of it on ability.i can see why you have come to that conclusion and my opinion would would confur with yours if you take its last run at face value and view it as a beaten horse some six lenghs back however i have taken a different view and see the french run as vastly improved effort by an improving young horse.
there can be no doubt that if milinary were on top of its game then it would be a real danger as would a back to form kutab but negatives against these two just strenghens my opinion that getting the stone from the field make simeon a stand out bet.
as a passing interest fayr jag in the 2.50 looks to have more than a e/w chance.

i do see simeon as a big threat in this race,but from the way i percieve vdw,if any kind of a gamble creeps in,or doubt don,t bet i may be wrong but there,s always another day.also of his five wins none of them at 1m4f i wish you all the best but i,ll keep my money in my pocket.good luck

Can anyone tell me where to get these from or how to calculate them from the RP's figures. If they are already on the board somewhere, could you point me in the right direction.

Thanks

Jack

i know vdw said the two races with the highest penalty value,from the principal meeting should be evaluated,i also believe he said other races on the card could get support from the method,the reason i say this is ALDORA seems to have a hell of a lot going her way and at 13/2 looks a very good proposition any comments greatly appreciated.

Jack,

To unadjusted the RP speed figures. 9st is the base + or - the weight carried to bring it to 9st.

Horse carried 10st - 14 from the figure shown
Horse carried 8st + 14 to the figure shown

Or use the Raceform Update, or down load data form from the Raceform site. These figures don't have to be adjusted as weight is not used in the calculations.

These figures don't relate to each other as the compilers use different standard times, and going allowances.

Satajack.

If speed figures work for unexposed 3 year olds, why not use them for all horses? Just a thought.

Be Lucky

Agreed a lot in her favour including the ground,weight,is surely overpriced as well,a vdw type to my mind.

Thanks for that. Is there a preference for either (Raceform or RP?)

Jack.

Now there has been a change in personnel for Top Speed I don't think it matters. The new chap Dave Edwards is an expert in his own right. I wasn't happy with the chap before, I could never understand how a faller could be awarded a s/f. I was pleased to see him leave. Edward's standard times seem higher so his final figures are lower, but I think they are more accurate. The only thing I would say is pick one, and stick to it.

Be Lucky

well done with fayr jag e.w,if you look at the ability/class of feet so fast and millenary,that class nearly always prevails.one of the main reasons i didn,t back millenary was he was b/f on last four occasions,but he could have been false fav,without the form books i,ll never know