Epiglotis

I think you can be fairly sure that no one who follows VDW's methodology will claim to have found Sun Bird. It was "out of form", well behind at least six others on ability, nothing special from the consistency point of view and quite unsupported by any ratings I've seen.

But finding winners is only part of VDW's approach - avoiding betting when there is not a clear "winner in the race", as he referred to it, is another.

Among the first six and equals in the Post's betting forecast there were several "form" horses, but none that had shown the actual or potential ability to win a race of today's class over today's distance. There were also several "out of form" horses (and some more lower down the forecast) - with higher ability ratings (in some cases markedly so) than the "form" horses. Under these circumstances it would be going against the odds to bet.

[This message was edited by Fulham on July 06, 2002 at 09:00 PM.]

Anybody identify a VDW investment today ?

I total agree with Fulham that there was no clear cut VDW runner in the Old Newton Cup.

That said it did not stop me backing both Takamaka Bay and Barathea Blazer today (my only investment).

Although I gave Shadow Dancing a strong mention this morning I decided that it was too close to call and thankfully left the race alone.

Back to Takamaka Bay. Dropped in class at Doncaster last week when a short priced favourite. Was that considered a downturn in form ?

*** short priced horses do get beaten only to deliver next time when the prize is right. HERETIC ***

Cheers,

fulham

firstly i didnt back sun bird, i have to disagree however when you say he was out of form.

looking over his career he won at 1m2 1/2f,1m3f, and 1m4f as a three yr old and 1m 4f this year,

carrying 9:10 to victory is no mean feat, his other performances have indicated that he runs better with less actual weight.

if he had come into the race with these credentials he would not have been 40/1, this form was however hidden by the subsequent run at 1m which, when considering this horses best trip it had no chance of winning.

Barney

I accept that a case can be made for regarding Sun Bird as "in form" in the VDW sense, if one is prepared to disregard its last run. The circumstances in which VDW did this are difficult to state with certainty, and while from the examples where he did that I've studied I doubt that he would have in this case, it is not impossible.

Barney,

Carrying 9-10 in a 0-75 E rated h`cap at Musselburgh against `trees` is hardly what I would call in form especally when we compare the form of the opposition SB faced today.

Just my opinion of course.

SB will now receive an OR over 80. I wonder how long it will take for him to win a/n hcap.

determined,

whether or not the run against trees was judged good enough "by us". it in fact turned turned out to be plenty good enough.

judging by the skill displayed by this trainer it will be when he wants it to.

Can`t argue that mate.

Cheers,

Was the only horse in the race that was in form but he was running in a far better race today off a 10 lbs higher mark therefore I let him run.

Everything else in the race in my opinion had factors against.

Should we be putting out money down in such cases ?

Any comments ?

determined,

dont put sun bird to bed so easy, go through its form last year.

cupboard lover was 5lb higher and had shown better form with more weight on a couple of occasions.

Determined - *** short priced horses do get beaten only to deliver next time when the prize is right. HERETIC ***

Yes, but there is getting beaten and getting beaten.

Takamaka Bay had much in common with our old friend Beacon Light, but did Heretic ?

You keep setting these `puzzles`.

My bedtime. Let`s hope my dreams give me the answers otherwise I`ll have to rely on hard work.

Cheers,

fancy a chat guest?

everyone?

Thanks for the reply. For myself, I only looked at one horse before deciding that the chances of finding the winner were insufficient to justify spending the time looking.

Good morning everybody,

has anyone looked at son of love in the 1979 st Leger?

the prix kergolav was an outstanding performance when judged in comparison(a lot like sophisticats american run),didn't like the soft next time though.that doesn't make him any worse a runner does it?.This seems to be a tricky aspect when considering consistency.

same as all the others.

and statajacks gb the other day

if you need to compare

hope that helps!

This horse marked his card in no uncertain terms on his seasonal debut.

Royal Hunt Cup was clearly the plan and if he were mine I wouldn`t have wanted a penalty `either` hence the defeat at Haydock ?

Ground went against at Ascot however yesterday wasn`t a bad substitute was it ?

Similarities to Ekbalco ?

" getting beaten and getting beaten "

Am I on the right lines ?

dont know if it deliberately lost it could have just been a mistimed run