FEEDBACK TO EARLIER POSTS

Hedgehog – with regards Montayral I cannot disagree with anything you say. That said, although not a bet for Guest on the grounds of conflict it would appear I was half right ( perhaps ) judging by the comments Guest has recently posted.


Guest – as ever your posts whether before racing or after remain as educational and interesting as ever. Long may they continue.
Your question regarding rating and ratings. It will not surprise you that I do not understand what VDW meant by this statement. Then again, there`s a lot I`m still struggling to come to terms with.
Backing short priced horses is a different world to me. Up until I started backing these VDW selections ( as I see them ) you could count the no` of horses I`d backed under 2/1 over the last 16 years on one hand.
I find it very uncomfortable especially when they lose.
An average winning price for me over the yrs has been 6/1 – 7/1 admittedly that brings with the lengthy losing run.
I suppose the light at the end of the tunnel is that better prices do avail themselves as one gains more experience, ie – Lady Bear, Mistletoe, etc.

Cheers,

hello layteruk


who are you???

hi statajack,

regarding SB/M if you remove class rating,form figure rating, official rating and speed figure it was still miles ahead even considering the lack of fitness(in my opinion).

This is the difference between rating and ratings (I THINK).

hi mtoto,

a different tack!

give me the name of one of you best bets last year that lost I dont want the name just the race number.

ill have another try

An excellent days racing and very tough to boot.

Races I`ve looked at from my very novice VDW head.

2.10 Ayr - Big and Bold and Spring Margot are the class/form horses. The former has very good recent form in high grade carrying wgt and against reasonable opposition. Also a very good jumper. A lot of plus`.
SM won valuable race last time. Prev` course winner and very consistent. Opposition much tougher today and jumping has to be a question mark.
Others - VH is highly thought of. Given a confidence booster last time. Jumping against good oppostion may find him out.
MC ia a 148 rated hurdler and escapes any pen`s today as his chse wins have been in low class. I believe the he`ll be found wanting today.


2.45 Ayr - Copeland and Vol Solitaire are the class/form horses. 2nd on ability Milligan - is he in form ?
`C` form this season excluding County Hurdle holds up very well. Weighted to beat VS today and to me he`s got alot of plus`.
Back to `M` - been conceding lumps of wgt` all season. Conditions ideal for the first time this season but does he have the class to compete with `C`.

3.25 Ayr - Turgeonev and Lord York are the class/form horses. `T` has struggled in top class recently. back in his class today but can he concede 15 lbs to LJ who has many plus` today.

Summary so far - Big and Bold, Copeland and Lord York are all probable winners but whether I place any of my monies will be subject to the strength of other race evaluations.

Cheers,

good card at ayr and nobody posting.
somebody,somewhere must have some thoughts.

At Ayr today the class/form horses are as follows -

1.35 Garruth with Direct Access 2nd c/f
2.10 Big & Bold with Valley Henry 2nd c/f
2.45 Copeland with Vol Solitaire 2nd c/f
3.25 Turgeonev
4.00 Cyfor Malta with Carbury Cross 2nd c/f

Stratford
4.05 Bramblehill Duke with Sulphur Springs 2nd c/f
Bangor
3.45 Flying Instructor with Cadougold 2nd c/f
Newbury
1.55 Mr Combustible
2.30 Dance On The Top with Lady Bear 2nd c/f
3.05 Queens Logic

Thirsk
3.20 Sohaib

There are some bets in there to be had.

hi,
was it(vdw)who stated trainers handicap their own horses?, did vol solitaire fall under that category today, copeland was indeed the class horse & was an unlucky faller, should we have played in the race at all as milligan added to the overall conflict, sorry guys in retrospect we should never have got involved with this race at all today, never mind
mac.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Barney:
hello layteruk


who are you???

---

Hi Barney,

I have been hanging around for the last couple of weeks. I now have my copies of The Golden Years, Betting the VDW Way and Systematic Betting. Give me time to attempt to work out a little of the thinking behind VDW and I will post more.
Meanwhile any helpful suggestions (polite) will be appreciated.

hi every body

welcome aboard layteruk

i only had one today mr combustible did anyone see the race as ive only just got in??

i did have zindabad 2nd c/f, but on balance i thought MC would prevail does anyone know if he has some target??

what went wrong!he had run well fresh before

Barney didn't see the race either but Mr H does like a winner or three at the upcoming chester meeting.

IMP

Barney.

Thanks for the offer,the way my betting has been geared over the last few years I don't think it would be of much help. Last year I was concentrating on handicaps. As the whole thing is geared to the highest weights,and the main filter eliminates any horse with an OR of under 10 points from the top OR. I take no notice of weight for age or sex, or any thing else that makes general assumptions. It would be to easy just to look, and say weight is the problem. It would be of more help if you, or Guest could tell me why Redback was not the class/form horse today. Is it a case of he was the class horse but out of form? if so how and why? The only thing I can see is, he didn't achieve what the punters expected last time.

I was hoping to get some response to the list I posted on the other thread, 3 won. Does that make me wrong? Were they class/form horses, just form horses, or just consistent horses?

Be lucky

Well done with the 3 winners you posted yesterday.

I know you requested feedback and I would love to respond but to be honest I do not feel anything I say will be of worth. Why ?

I was `determined` to make this year the year I turned the corner but How can someone who has made 7 bets this week and not managed to find a winner be expected to pass comment.

My bets were,

Invincible Spirit
Castleshane ( because Hitman was a non runner )
Wave Rock
Montayral
Korakor
Wood Dalling
Gunther McBride.

All bar the last 2 were what I considered VDW bets. Because of the disappointing results the last 2 were my own selections per my own form study.

I`ve had a losing run of 20 in the past but these days a losing run of 7 is not something I`m comfortable with.

My confidence has taken a bit of a battering. That said , when I look at some of the winners I`ve found over the past 10 years or so using my own way of reading form I ought to keep my chin up.

I`m at a crossroads already, ie - VDW will have to be a paper exercise for the majority of this year and I will be sticking to my own `methods` for the time being.

I`ll still be a frequent visitor to the thread and will make the odd post but for now I must take a back seat because I run the danger of possibly confusing other novices out there.

WATER JUMP - with the greatest respect I was surprised you put up this horse as a class/form horse. Mr Combustible was mine which I note was also the one for Guest and Barney. MC was one of 3 from memory who had proven Group form whereas WJ hadn`t and if Mr Hills` horses had been in better form he`d have been a bet for me.

BARNEY - the race was a very strongly run race and MC blew up a furlong out having run a good race to that point. This race like many over the past week will prove excellent form guides for the future. From this race alone there were several worth noting. I suspect several will meet at Chester and York in the near future.

Cheers,

good morning,


mtoto,


sometimes weight is the problem sometimes its not.

with red backs race

these were my thoughts

Bragardino- has run well fresh coming out of a high class race with poor form trying to do some thing it has not done before.

foreign accent- one run form poor

guys and dolls- has peformed at this leval and form good not disgraced when upped in class, go's well fresh but at this leval?? possible.

kulachi- decent form at lower class when upped shown consistency,distance wrong shown nothing to sggest 7 will suit.

Maderno-one outing poor form, no chance really if it was a joe blogs horse,o'brien is a problem though???

mister cosmi- has done it above this leval showing very good form not consistant though,goes well fresh, possible

redback-has won this class, inconsistent when upped, had a run this yeartrip wrong?,form not that good, possible

royal quaters-low class races shown quite good form, has needed first run in past, possible

seriuex- has shown some ability,inconsistent when upped to trip.

steenberg-won at this leval at distance, form not very good though indicated potential for improvement, possible


my summary

no bet - too many good enough on their day, with good form on wrong distance/going at high class. i had guys and dolls as the likely winner.

with regard to redback specifically i thought he was consistant but the recent form not good enough in comparrisson to other runners.

i suppose at its purest if you discount all who have not had a run redback was the winner but with a couple or three ibn bays in there.

[This message was edited by Barney on April 21, 2002 at 08:26 AM.]

Mtoto

I think that much of the frustration you feel is down to semantics. The term class/form horse is being used frequently by contributors, but to mean different things.

As always, I stand to be corrected, but think that VDW first used the explicit term ""class/form" horse" in his article of 26/1/1985, though he had most certainly referred much earlier to the essence of the ideas he encapsulated in that term. (And I think the eighth para. of the 26/1/1985 article supports both the above views.)

VDW used the term explicitly in relation to 21 named horses in the 26/1/1985 article and two subsequent ones (13/4/1985 and 18/1/1986). One of these horses - Desert Hero - was found by a rather different approach, which he described, leaving 20 "mainstream" (my term, not VDW's) class/form horses for analysis.

VDW also made it clear that:

a) identifying the class/form horse in his sense of that term was NOT just a simple mechanical process ("to isolate the "class/form" horse can often prove a tricky problem ..." - para. 8, article of 26/1/1985), and

b) the class/form horse, when identified, was not an automatic selection - eg the Canny Danny example in the article of 13/4/1985 and (given that Little Owl was explicitly a class/form horse - para. 6, article of 13/4/1985) the two paras immediately under the table for the 1.45 Haydock, 7/3/1981, in the "Spells it all out" article of 28/3/1981.

On these threads the term class/form horse is sometimes being used in what might be called the technical VDW sense, to identify the horse in a current race that (as far as its possible to judge) has been identified following the same procedure as VDW adopted in identifying the 20 referred to above. And that is what I and, I think, Guest and Lee mean when we use the term. (And because the class/form horse is not found simply by following a simple mechanical process - sub-para (a) above - from time to time different conclusions will be reached.)

Others are, perfectly legitimately, using the term class/form horse in other ways, for example to shorthand what they think represents the outcome of trying to balance "class" and "form" in identifying a selection for the race. These are just as appropriate usages of the term as is the technical VDW use, but the use of the same term for different purposes can, of course, lead to confusion as it does in other spheres.

Taking one of two of your examples by way of illustration, Redback in the 3.35 Newbury yesterday, lets consider both elements. Starting with the easier - class - Redback had the highest ability rating of the first five in the betting, albeit by a very narrow (arguably insignificant) margin. But was he in form? Not in the specific sense used by VDW when identifying his 20 class/form horses so, in that sense and only that sense, Redback could not be the class/form horse. (And here there is a parallel with Beacon Light in the 1978 Erin. He had the highest ability rating among the first five in the betting in that race but was, in the specific sense used by VDW, not a horse in form.)

And its worth stressing that this specific sense is a meretricious short-cut. I have argued on an earlier post that, given the opposition and the respective weights, Beacon Light did very well to finish a close second in his run before the Erin. But that argument at the same time irrelevant and central! Its irrelevant to the technical question of what, in a VDW sense, was the class/form horse in the Erin - which later VDW comments suggest was, for him, Prominent King. Its central, because it needs to be evaluated, with the other relevant factors, after the class/form horse has been identified, in the process of deciding whether the class/form horse or any alternative should be backed.

From the perspective of the above, in my view two principal questions arise:

1) what criteria did VDW use to identify the class/form horse in his sense of that term? Guest has said - in my view quite accurately - that the class/form horse is the form horse with the highest ability rating. The ability rating element is straightforward(ish). The criteria for identifying form horses in VDW's sense are less straightforward and (I think) are the "missing link" referred to in para. 5 and 6 of the 13/4/1985 article. If so, the missing link can be found by research of the 20 examples;

2) given that identifying the class/form horse in VDW's sense is not the end of the road, but needs to be followed by the sort of study implied in the two paras. from the "Spells it all out" article referred to above, is it a useful thing to do? As Guest's various posts make clear, by no means all class/form horses should be backed, and sometimes they should be opposed, so why bother?

VDW's answer was clear. In his article of 26/1/85 he wrote "the "class/form" horse is the one most likely to win and ... to be against it pushes the odds away from you". At depth, its an empirical matter: was VDW right?

Assuming that Guest, for example, normally identifies as his class/form horse the one VDW would have so designated, its clear from the quite large number he has posted prior to racing that most lose. So one might conclude that VDW was wrong, and that the class/form horse is not the one most likely to win. But I think that would be a superficial conclusion, and that what VDW really meant was that it was the "most likely to win" but there is much further work to be done to isolate those that will win. And its the skill and judgement that individuals use in undertaking that further work, and homing in on those class/form horses which really are good betting propositions, (and good alternatives such as Flagship Uberalles at Cheltenham, where the class/form horse is not a good betting proposition) that sorts the winners from the losers. From this perspective, discovering the "missing link" is not to discover the Holy Grail - its merely to find a useful shortcut that provides a prelude to extensive form analysis.

determined dont give up!!!

CLASS/FORM HORSES

Having read Fulham`s latest post I thought I`d have a look at the class/form horses put upby Guest yesterday.
First though, to quote Guest and Fulham if I understand correctly there class/form horses will be the FORM horse with the highest ability rating.
I agree that working out the ability rating is straight forward but it is the FORM HORSE IN VDW`s SENSE which is proving difficult and according to article dated 13/04/85, para`s 5 – 6 work this out on you will have found the MISSING LINK.
Reading the said article suggests to me that the missing link is one factor however I do not believe for a minute that will be the case and reviewing Guest`s class/form horses of yesterday in my opinion confirms this.
I am going to pass comment on several of yesterdays horses put up by Guest but anyone reading this should remember what I say maybe complete and utter b.-----k`s

Garruth – top on ability with a rating of 84. Was he in form ? Lets have a very quick look at his form. A very classy hurdler but hasn`t really set the world alight in his chasing career so far. Last run I accept was in high value £17615 but at Fontwell, class d , 0 –116. Yes, he did carry 11-07.
2 points spring to mind here notably the significant drop in actual wgt to be carried to day and secondly I believe the `class` element can only be taken from his hurdling career.
I haven`t compared this to the opposition yet but the `class` is very interesting.

Valley Henry – 2nd on ability with a rating of 86. Is he in form ? Last run when winning 4 runner race albeit hard held hardly sets the pulse racing especially when we compare it to Spring Margot (3rd ability) who has just won a £21775 race at Aintree. We have to go back to his 30/11/01 race some 5 runs ago to find his `class` performance.
Similarities on the `class` front seem to be evident to both Garruth and Valley Henry.

Cyfor Malta and Carbury Cross – CM was top on ability in the field but CC was 8th rated. I accept we can safely rule out Frantic Tan. No Retreat, Paris Pike but ruling out Marlborough, Shotgun Willy and G.Mcbride given the value of the races they had been running in was a brave call wasn`t it. This race in my opinion suggests the abilty rating in certain races dare I say is not worth the paper its written on.
That may sound a little direct so put another way may I make the statement that perhaps part of the process for identifying the class/form horse is ruling out which horse cannot win and if that were the case then I would have ruled out CM at the same stage Marlborough had been ruled out which was very early because in my opinion neither could stay the distance carrying that wgt `against those at the bottom of the handicap who were in form.
To identify CM and CC as the class /form horses suggests to me that the abilty rating does not have as much clout as other factors and it is there I will leave it.

Regards,

ABILITY / CLASS OF A HORSE

If I`m covering old ground my apologies for wasting everybodies time.

Is the ability rating the only way to evaluate a horses ability/class ? I think we all know the answer to the question is no.
2 – 3 yo`s aside (early season) if my understanding of VDW is correct there are 3 ways to assess a horses class, ie – the ability rating and 2 others.
The question is which is the most important ? Is there an order of priority ? Is there a rule of thumb dependant on the type of race we are evaluating ?

I ask these questions because of the statement once given to me by the late Jock Bingham during a brief telephone conversation several years ago and I quote,

“ ignore the ability rating and pay attention to a horses past performance`s considering the class / value of the races run in “

That statement in my opinion is the 2nd way to assess a horses class, the most recent run being the most important sometimes.

Is the third way the one I believe Guest has used to identify Garruth and if the answer is yes how far back does one go to use this rating.

Mitcham won a very valuable race several years ago but in my opinion that winning race has no merit when assessing his present ability / class ?

Any comments will as ever be very much appreciated.

Regards,

Having read Fulham and Determineds latest posts along with Mtotos, I see there is further concern about the class/form situation, especially the form aspect which has always caused most confusion.

I have said many times that everything is relative and so it is with form. Marlborough was not a form horse yesterday, though had the race been a 20 grand conditions event he would have been. Gunther Mcbride was border line. He won a very weak renewal of the Racing Post Chase with 10-3 then failed over 2 weeks later when dropped in race class with 8lb more. Again had the handicap been a 20 grand one we could have had him as one of the form horses, but of course it wasn't it was a 60 grand handicap. Cyfor Maltas latest run came in a high class conditions race in which he showed improvement and was a form horse yesterday albeit with a lot to do under the conditions. There were factors against Carbury Cross who actually beat little of note last time when noted as a very probable winner. It was a no bet race for me, but interesting that the eventual winner was last years beaten favourite.

With Valley Henry we had a situation where not knowing how to use certain tools given would have led to the overlooking of the winner. He was a form horse and whilst his last race was clearly a formality, his earlier form was good relative the rest of the field. Big & Bold was the class/form horse but experience helped show that amongst other things, the hard race he had to win a valuable race last time at 7/1 in Ireland would not aid his cause in trying to defy a penalty on different terms on very different going over here. Valley Henry had been given a much easier preparation in the end and suggestions that he was an early season type were negated by the very fact the trainer gave him a nice confidence booster at Exeter recently at long odds on. This is what VDW referred to as balancing all the factors. He did at one point say that if anyone was unable to do this balancing act, they should stick to the class horse and only bet when everything lined up in support. Experience soon shows those class horses who won't deliver and can be sensibly opposed with the next class/form horse.

In the end I had 3 bets with Valley Henry, Vol Solitaire and Sulphur Springs. Newbury had far too much conflict, Queens Logic apart, as did other meetings.

good afternoon mate..don,t be despondent, remember you don,t have to bet,just wait for the sitters as statajack puts it,CLASSIFIED,SMOKIN BEAU,SIMEON,QUEENS LOGIC,SULPHUR SPRINGS also keep thinking consistent form+ability+capability+probability+hard work=winners,you can crack it mate,keep on keepin on good luck investor