Boozer,

Tell me about it.

All,

Was Adiemus a form horse yesterday ?

What were the class/form horses in the Rosebery ?

Any comments would be appreciated.

In my opinion for what its worth I made Adiemus 1st with Goblet Of Fire 2nd.

To get GOB as 2nd meant I made many others rated higher on ability as not in form which I was comfortable with which of course includes the winner.

Cheers,

More questions,

Old examples = Wing and A Prayer race no` 1544

Man About Town has form figures of 711

Irish form ?

Here`s hoping !

Determined,

Another life does begin at 40 believe me. Since passing through that mark, I've raised another family - and been married close on 20 years this time. On the other hand, I've also gone broke in the process, but no grey hairs yet and I've still got enough left to cover my head.

Enjoy your trip, and come back refreshed (and well read!)

Oldtimer

Oldtimer,

Thanks and well done again yesterday with B.Score.

Determined
you can add Blue Ride from my point of view,I would have said no need for alarm would have been a good bet,if one was certain it could stay on it's feet.

Determined,

I think one has to make the distinction between being out of form, and as Barney would say not in form for this race. Broadway Score was in form, (for me) but the form didn't show he had a winning chance in this race. I don't know how many of the people that use the c/form method would have had him as a form horse, if any. This is what I don't like about trying to apply the method to all the examples, in most cases (if ever) did VDW say THIS HORSE IS OUT OF FORM.

I narrowed this race down to 3 consistent horses.....

Goblet Of Fire the BEST HORSE in the race. He is consistent, improving, and shown he can handle big fields in this class. He has a little to find with Adiemus on their last run. GOF wasn't race fit, and I have BIG doubts about A.

Muhareb, distance all wrong for him.

Barolo, maiden, with too much to prove.

At no time did Adiemus come into the reckoning for me. In his next race is he out of form, or forgiven because the track and draw went against him? Both answers could be valid, which one will you decide on? It wouldn't matter, except VDW said when you understand how it works you will have the same selections as him (and everyone else that understands) VDW showed us the first filter CONSISTENCY, he also showed us he thought consistency and the c/rating were/are the same thing.

Hope you have a good break, and reaching the grand old age of 40 is only the beginning, NOT the end. Look forward, and enjoy.

Be Lucky

Determined,
Most of us wish we were 40 again. Enjoy your holiday and don't forget the book.

Raffingora
Thanks for your reply. Most interesting,
Cheers
swish


WHEN I HEAR CATCHPHRASES I FEEL LIKE SURRENDERING AND BUYING SYSTEMS.

Mtoto,

Broadway Score - I agree his 2nd giving Lingo 5 lbs makes him a form horse but not in the context of yesterdays £23,200 race.

BS was in the 1st 6 of the f/c but one certainly couldn`t say he was consistent. His 2nd last time in my opinion could not compare with the form of Adiemus and Goblet Of Fire.

In winning BS has run a career best thus marking his card therefore his future placing`s will be of interest.

Onto Adiemus, perhaps I should have made his 7th in the Lincoln a downturn and therefore not a form horse but I was reluctant to do so.

I was far more comfortable making all those rated higher than GOB on ability (10) as out of form.

I agree that Adiemus had the fitness edge over GOB last time but I was reluctant to split the 2 and backed them both to win.

So near yet so far.

How do I see Adiemus from now on ? This was clearly a downturn in form for me and as I stated earlier I`m not sure he`s totally in love with the game.

That said, his prospects in future races will all depend on the circumstances, opposition, etc.

Cheers,

Greenslades,

The above runs in the 6 furlong cavalry charge at Kempton tomorrow.

A very interesting horse which I`m sure will pay to follow this season.

Will tomorrow be his day ?

In my opinion if the prize is wanted he`ll take it but is there another day in mind ?

I`m confident I know the plan.

Any thoughts on this race (which I accept may not be a race for VDW) would be welcome.

Cheers,

Determined

In respect of the Rosebery winner you wrote: "Broadway Score - I agree his 2nd giving Lingo 5 lbs makes him a form horse but not in the context of yesterdays £23,200 race."

This suggests to me that you are considering BS's 2nd in a class 121 relative to the ostensible class of Saturday's race. But there is another relativity to be considered - BS's situation relative to the other runners. After all, Desert Hero was not the class/form horse in the 1983 Imperial Cup on the basis of the ostensible class of his recent performances relative to the penalty value of the Cup.

Fulham,

In view of your latest post I have just looked at BS run last time relative to the opposition ( which I accept I hadn`t done prior to the race ) and that performance was better than the last run of all the runners with the exception of Goblet Of Fire`s run at Lingfield and Adiemus`s run in the Lincoln ( dependant on how one view`s that run ).

Looking at the race in the way you have suggested and taking the view Adiemus is not in form then working through the field by ability rating we have

1st class/form = Broadway Score

2nd class/form = Goblet Of Fire.

If I have understood what you are saying (which of course may not be the case - I am a slow learner) then it looks as though you may have found yet another nice priced winner.

If that is the case then take a well deserved pat on the back.

Determined

Let me say straightaway that I did not back Broadway Score, or indeed any other horse, in the Rosebery, except for my usual arb on the Pricewise selection.

Under the pressure of assessing the Rosebery in the morning, I simply found it too difficult. In my initial analysis I took the view that neither Adiemus or Goblet of Fire could be regarded as form horses in the context of the race, and I couldn't find the equivalent of a Desert Hero.

It was only when I spent more time on the race in the evening that it struck me that, if I was right about Adiemus and Goblet of Fire, through overlooking a factor VDW showed us (though without explicitly signalling it) in the Prominent King and Love fron Verona examples, I had in fact missed in Broadway Score a form horse, indeed the c/f.

A check with some respected friends revealed interesting differences in appraisal. One, (in my view the most competent VDW-wise) had concluded that Adiemus, Broadway Score and Goblet of Fire were all form horses in the context of the race, but decided against a three-horse book. Another shared my view about Adiemus and Goblet of Fire, but did not see Broadway Score as backable and had concluded that the race was one to be left.

This divergence of opinion will doubtless fuel the view of some that, despite what VDW wrote, even those who feel (rightly or wrongly) that they understand VDW's "missing link" don't reach the same conclusions. Unsurprisingly, my view is rather different, and I see isolating the c/f in this race as merely an unusually "tricky problem" (VDW's article of 26/1/85 refers).

My purpose in posting last night was not to offer the "right" answer, because I don't know what that is. Rather, it was to draw attention to a matter of technique - from a VDW perspective, one does not rule out a horse on the basis that its performances to date (recent or indeed career) in terms of the penalty values of the races run well in, fall a long way short of the penalty value of the race under consideration.

Fulham,

Thanks for the feedback. It clearly shows

- I still have some way to go to understand this methodology

- brings home to those trying to understand that even those far more knowlegeable on the subject still cannot agree.

It would appear that by making both A and GOB in form I was agreeing in part with one of your associates. I suppose I ought to take a little credit for that !

Back to B.Score`s in formness - a direct question if I may.

Was his Pontefract run the reason for his in formness, ie - that run relative to the opposition was a good run or do we need to go back further ?

I`d also be interested in why your associate made the decision not to back B.Score.

Capability ?

Todays events,

The only 2 races to interest me today are the 3.15 and 3.50 Kempton.

I dare say there will be a few good things lurking around with all these meetings but not for me.

Back to Kempton, the 3.15 is a watching race with the running of Greenslades of very keen interest to me.

Turning to the 3.50.

Parasol looks to be 1st on class/form followed by Island House.

Parasol has clearly improved since his well beaten run behind IH last backend and should have a fitness edge today.

Also, the way the race will be run will suit Parasol better than IH and I therefore make Parasol the most probable of the 2 today.

HOWEVER, Nysaean in my opinion is far better than his ability rating of 79 and if there was any juice in the ground (very unlikely) this one would be a bet for me today.

From a VDW angle I therefore make Parasol the likely winner but in my opinion there is conflict (Nysaean) = NO BET.

Any thoughts,

Determined

We've all got some way to go.

If Broadway Score is regarded as a form horse - which I think he should be - the reason is the quality of that Pontefract run. Had he trailed down the field that day, then in my view he could not possibly be considered a form horse in the context of Saturday's race.

As to why my friend did not regard BS as backable, I haven't retained his email but basically he took the view that while the Pontefract run was good, the recent record as a whole could not be said to show what VDW termed "good consistent form".

Having found the Rosebery too tricky, I had hoped for something easier today. But my initial impression is that the race in which Greenslades runs is also far from unproblematic. Best of luck if you back G.

Hi Determined.
I make the rating for Nysaean 73 not 79.

Dennis.

Fulham,

I agree the Pontefract run was a good one and BS win has certainly franked Lingo`s running.

I note Lingo is entered at Epsom later in the week but thats another day.

With regards Greenslades, I will not be betting in the race as there are far too many permutations but rest assured `G` will prove to be the best horse in this race and I expect him to prove in the very near future.

If the trainer decides to go for the win today he`ll be faced with possibly 10-00 on what I believe will be his next engagement and connections will not want that.

Dennis,

I have re-checked my maths and I still have Nysaean rated 79.

Cheers,

Determined,

I have to agree with you that I made Greenslades the best horse in the race, but not from that draw. As happened on Saturday, it was the high drawn horses that were always going to have the best chance.

When you consider suitability of the course do you factor in the draw? For there are 17 courses that I have noted with draw bias at certain distances with big fields. It makes abig difference if you can cut out 2/3 of the field right off the bat. Not always right ofcourse, but more times than not.

I seem to rfemember that in the past you used to concentrate on big sprints and I wonder if this was part of your thinking then. Ifso, then why not now?

Oldtimer

Oldtimer,

In sprints the draw on certain courses in my opinion is a major factor and Kempton is one of those courses with a bias along with, from memory Lingfield (turf), Beverley & Thirsk.

Sadly, the bookies now factor this bias into the betting f/c therefore the value in many sprints on these courses has gone.

My bets in sprint h`caps was vastly reduced last year due to the fact that I am trying to concentrate more on other races.

I did have some success last year notably with Johnny Ebeneezer at 33/1, Tom Tun at 14/1 and Bond Boy 12/1 therefore I will still dabble from time to time but not as much.

Looking at your thread I see you have just had another winner in Seel Of Approval who will continue to be worth following. WELL DONE.

I didn`t manage to see the race so if anybody can tell me how Greenslades ran I`d be most grateful.

In my opinion the valuable Newmarket h`cap at the Guineas meeting will the day to have agood look at this one.

Cheers,

Fulham
At the beginning of your last post you said " we all have some way to go " judging by some recent posts,i think it's quite evident that a few are now getting to grips with the methods.vdw said that the odds were it would remain obscure if not looked at in the right way,But like you say we do have some way to go,But i now think the picture has become clearer.