Montayral max bet on it today and it should have won if it hadn't fallen, well thats racing. do i regret the bet, no as they don't all win.

titus

Mtoto/Max - The weight was always going to be a negative for Iris Royal. The same factor was one of a couple of negatives for Tucacas who failed to give the weight to a previous winner of a valuable mares event. Interesting that Mr Pipes mare won at 7/1 last time but was very short today against better horses.

The same weight factor showed Wave Rock as a false favourite. Again it's interesting to note the price of the winner Demasta in it's last run and how long it had been off the track.

Fulham - I think any significant break tells a story when viewed in conjunction with the form. Many horses go well fresh and a past study shows those who prefer a break. It really depends on the opposition on the day, as always, and the size of the purse. For example Kings Ride didn't appear to be an obvious early season type based on his previous efforts, but he improved at the end of the previous season and was aimed at the Lincoln first time up the following year which he won as a VDW selection. Well worth looking at from all angles that one.

mtoto

you havnt look at it and the examples again and again and again

Guest

Thanks for your response re horses running after a break.

My researches certainly support your basic proposition: when identifying a selection running for the first time in a season VDW would usually be able to point to a record of success either in first time runs in previous seasons (as, for example, with six of the seven fto 3yos and three of the fto 4yos he selected in 1979), or after a lengthy mid-season lay-off (as with Proven). And this was, of course, the situation with Smokin Beau earlier this week.

There were, however, some striking exceptions.

He gave two fto 3yos (Rifle Brigade in 1978 and Inside Quarter in 1979) for whom there was no such evidence (neither had run particularly well fto as 2yos, or had had mid-season gaps of more than a month or so), and indeed in respect of whom the evidence was that they ran best within two or three weeks of an outing (races 3040 and 3788 in 1977 with Rifle Brigade, races 2071, 3171 and 3703 in 1978 with Inside Quarter).

Similarly, with Fair Season, a 5yo selected fto to win the 1979 Lincoln, the evidence suggests that, as he got older, he ran better after a relatively recent outing.

With these three, VDW presumably took account of other factors such as the trainer’s history of winning with first time out 3yos (marked, in respect of Rifle Brigade’s) and the horse's class and form vis-a-vis that of the other runners (a point Barney has made); assumed fitness given the prize (a reasonable assumption with Fair Season in the context of the Lincoln); or regarded the risk as factored into the price (Inside Quarter winning at 9/1).

I don’t think that backing a horse first time out in a season could be said to be wholly risk-free from the fitness perspective. But when one looks at the detail of VDW’s selections, there are reasons to suggest that he minimised the risk he ran – yet another instance where, contrary to Statajack's view, there is value in the historical research.

Fulham's List

Gamut runs @ Newbury 5.10
p.s.
thanks for posting them Fulham.
regards
Bumper

Fulham,
I would refer you to the first paragraph of my last posting.
Im glad to see that you obviously show more diligence in your vdw researches than you do in reading message board postings.

regards,

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

I'm a bit confused. I don't see why Montrayal was considered by some to be a bet yesterday.

Roberty Bob was the C/F horse and Montrayal was dropping out of form. In its last race it was very skillfully placed having no opposition to talk of. Even with RB failing to run there were better horses present who had shown that they were capable of winning at that class level.

Even the RP says it was unlucky but I'd read that it fell because it was pushed into a class beyond its means at the time.

I'd be grateful for any comments to correct my dodgy form reading.

All the best
hedgehog

I want to come back on several points but later as I`ve got commitments but very quickly.

FULHAM

Keep posting as your comments, etc are very valuable. Also, the list of horses ( speed ) is greatly appreciated.

HEDGEHOG

Re` Montayral. Again very quickly, were RB and SS really in form. Added, to that consider the actual weight they were set to carry yesterday in comparison to `M` especailly when considereing the weight carried previously.
Thats how I came to back `M`.
**** I would really appreciate the experts view on this *****

BARNEY

Thanks for the E mail.

TODAYS RACING

At face value Dark n`Sharp looks good ( not my price ); Ravenswood some may say looks good especially receiving all that wgt` from Telsmoss however he`s keen in his races, ie - will he settle if a slow pace which is possible; Karokar looks most likely in my opinion from Ayr but again at 13/8 this morning not for me.

Cheers and good luck,

Interesting to read about the change of going at Cheltenham yesterday. I was at work and had no idea that there had been enough rain to change things, we didn't get much rain this area.Certainly would have made a difference to my estimate of Tucacas' chances.

It goes to show that those watching the racing, or on course have a significant advantage over those of us stuck in the office! I must admit I always feel on safer ground when I'm at the course, I can judge the conditions and take the best odds(which makes a big difference). Sadly I'm not able to go racing as much as I would like, mind you being a football nut(1017 grounds visited, sad isn't it?) means I miss out on the Saturdays as well!

Rob

Hi Statajack

Having re-read the post to which you refer, in the light of the one on Beacon Light, my earlier comment today seems fair enough, even if you now assure me its wrong. Sorry that I misconstrued you.

[This message was edited by Fulham on April 19, 2002 at 11:22 AM.]

Your reply to the 3 horses I put up was very informative and at some point I would like to come back to you if I may.

Also, at some point I will do what I have been wanting to do for sometime, ie - look at the 7 horses you put up at the back end of last year. I`m convinced that if I understand your evaluations I`ll be finding some nice winners.

Speed in class have anything to do with it ?

Cheers,

Guest.

I wonder if you have any coment to make on Strajack's post re BL? I don't want to put words into his mouth, but he does seem to be saying the same as me. Weather or not BL was in form, he was out of the running because he was eliminated by the other ratings.

Another thing that bothers me is this apparent thinking that because a horse has a hard race it can't/won't reproduce it's form next time. Many experts use the amount of fight a horse shows, as a pointer to class. In fact I think vdw mentioned it somewhere. It has crossed my mind BL did in fact bounce, but for that he would have had to have produced a very good performance last time. You are saying it was a poor performance so that thinking doesn't make senses, as we wouldn't know that before the race.

Determined.

You know the answer to that before you asked the question :-))

Good luck if you play today

Fulham - Those horses who didn't have a past record of going well fresh were mainly younger horses who had improved towards the end of the last season and were not upto the job in the early part of their career. As you will no doubt be aware, some older 4 & 5 yos improve immensely after gelding and their profile changes in conjunction. Again it's a worthy area of investigation and not bound by rules.

At Ayr today there are points of interest in all 6 of the professional races. In the opener at 2.20 the class/form horse is Isio and he has the best form. He is the selection given all the factors.

2.50 has Dark N Sharp as class/form and this horse has progressed well with each chase undertaken. He is back into easier company here against other novices and has the capability to carry the weight. A clear selection but likely to be very short and not worth backing. The market will be watched though just in case a rick is made, but I doubt it will be.

3.20 The class/form horse is Stormez with Whitenzo 2nd. Neither is particularly consistent, though both have run in much higher class. Stormez is visored today and has the best hurdles form, but there is a slight conflict and I wouldn't bet. The likely winner though.

3.50 Last years winner Korakor is the class/form horse with Carrick Troop 2nd on class/form. Given the form and also cross checking with the method employed for Roushayd, Korakor comes out as a good thing.

4.50 And again the class/form horse The Bajan Bandit has a lot of plus points and the most likely winner.

5.20 Class/form Ravenswood has improved dramatically since being handicapped and is taking on easier opposition today. The prize is considerably smaller than before and the trip is longer, but he comes here instead of the Scottish Champion hurdle tomorrow as does Telemoss who has been running with credit in much better class. Balancing it all out, Ravenswood looks a good thing, but again the odds will have to be weighed before having a wager.

Isio,Korakor,The Bajan Bandit and Ravenswood come out as likely bets but several of these need watching in the market. Odds on won't be enough reward to take for me.

At Newbury in the 3.40 extra care is needed along with an extra measurement in the form of speed. On a class basis Shot To Fame is highest on achievements but ran below his best on Heavy final start. He lies second on a speed/merit basis to Sparkling Water, but note where the latter made his debut. His actually winning achievements were not up to much as they stood. Proven actually has the best winning form, but this just adds to the conflict. No selection.

The 2.40 & 3.10 have lots of questions to answer but the 4.10 & 5.10 warrant a look in view of the lists that were mentioned.

In my view Gamut may find it tough going against Dileer and very possibly Perigeo who hails from a powerful stable in form also. In line with VDWs guidelines within Systematic Betting (in which the list idea was given) I don't think the betting boots should be on for Gamut today.

The form looks much better for Islington though in the 4.10 and i wouldn't put anyone of her though the acceptable odds need careful weighing up.

Hello All,

Determined - thanks for the response.

I'm still confused. RB and SS were both in form at that level. As it turns out so was LT though I discounted that one incorrectly.

I'm doing this from memory, which is always iffy for me, but look at M's last 4 runs. All dropping in class except the last run, a slight rise but it had no competition. It might as well have been the only horse at the races, which it was that day.
Look at its last 3 speed figures all dropping. M was a sort of reverse winner in a race and contesting a higher class.
It fell 2 out, just were the race really started. It was pushed too hard and its jumping fell to pieces(no pun intended).

I don't believe the trainers intention was to go for the win. The trainer was after the place money which for 2nd was as good as M has been getting.

Again the horse has been skillfully placed to make best use of it but it was not going there to win. That was beyond it.

Anyway thats how I see it. Further comments would be gratefully recieved.

All the best
hedgehog

Hello All,

Guest - have just seen your post on Ayr and feel well pleased with myself that I have the same C/F horses as you in the races I evaluated.

There unfortunately the meeting of minds stops. Definitely a case of the unknown factors.

I agree with Dark'n'Sharp.
I don't like the form of either Stormez or Whitenzo so no-bet. It would not surprise me if Mr Woodentop won this race.
I think Korakor could well be beaten by Monnaie Forte. I think Monnaie Forte is a lot better than it first appears. So no-bet.
Similarly I think Ravenswood will have a battle with Telemoss and I can't separate them so no bet.

I'll look at Isio closely. Thanks for the pointer there.

In passing, are you getting problems with javascript errors when you try to post? It looks like "they" have improved the board with a few bugs to boot.

All the best
hedgehog

hello there..i take it no news is good news? cheers investor

Hello All,

Guest - Nice one 3 out of 4 at Ayr.

All the best
hedgehog

Mtoto - Sorry I must have missed your post earlier that appeared just prior to mine today. Firstly I would say that having had some correspondance with Statajack and yourself, I am of the view that there are many things we don't agree on regarding VDWs methods. VDW said "2 different methods of rating all 5 horses" and later said that "rating and ratings are 2 different matters". Does anybody else actually understand what VDW meant by the latter statement?

Secondly the fact that a horse has a hard race does most certainly not mean it will not be considered a form horse next time. The fact that Beacon Light did have a hard race, when beaten in a race he should have won on all known form, only compounds the fact that he wasn't a form horse in PKs race.

VDW once said that no one knows the lot in racing and anyone who thinks they do is kidding themselves. I fully agree with this and I think VDW was actually making the point that no matter how methodical and logical we are, there is no way to find the winner of every race evaluated. What we have to do is concentrate on areas we know can bear fruit, but only put our money down when the signs are right. This means sitting out lots of winners but also lots of losers as well. The believe that because a horse won we should have backed it is well wide of the mark. Strange things can and do happen in racing, but in the main the signs are identifiable when you know what to look for. For example, whilst the 4 runner hurdle event at Ayr today looked to be between 2 horses, upon evaluation there were signs that the class/form horse may well win but was not a good thing in the VDW sense. This is the sort of situation where one must observe temperament and leave their betting boots off. Similarily with Gamut in the last at Newbury. Whilst speed/merit put him in front there was one or two things not quite right with his form. On one occassion in Systematic Betting, VDW mentions a horse from his list that won first time out but should not have been backed. At first glance many would think it was because the horse was odds on and move on content that they had followed VDWs reasoning. Wrong - there was another very important reason as to why it was left and it was much the same reason that Gamut was one to let run today. In contrast, Islington looked very strong form wise, but for me personally the price wasn't quite good enough. That is not to say I would have condemned anyone for backing her today because she did have the right attributes for the task in hand. In the end I had 3 bets in the shape of Isio at evens, Korakor at 2/1 and Ravenswood at evens. Korakor was beaten by the unexpected (at least via the formbook) and demonstrates why even though we can be as cautious as possible, we will never totally iron out the odd loser.

Determined - In the novice chase at Cheltenham yesterday, there was a conflict between Silver Streak and Montayral. Silver Streak had the best winning form, but conditions favoured Montayral when combined with other facts. It was a race to leave for me.

hi all
Will be on Milligan tomorrow think he will take the beating.
mac.