At the principle meeting Doncaster, there are 3 races worthy of consideration. The 3.35 is a 3m 2f 0-145 Handicap Chase class 206. The 3 most consistent from the first 6 in the forecast are, from the top of the card, Grey Abbey, The Last Fling and Samuel Wilderspin.

Top rated on ability is The Last Fling (145) who won a much more valuable race last time at Warwick off 10-4 at 25/1. Previously pulled up at Wetherby and 2nd before that over further against Royal Tommy at Haydock in lower class.

Narrow Water is next (143) but has failed to complete in all 4 runs this season. This is in stark contrast to last when winning 3 from 5 and not out of the first 2. He is capable of winning in this class and was running a good race last time when falling but can't really be considered for a selection. He is respected though on a class basis.

No Retreat (116) hasn't won for a long time and is on the downgrade. His last run was against poor class relative to todays. Not a form horse by any means.

Heidi III (90) has won a better race over this course and did run well behind Behrajan at Wetherby at Christmas. Pulled up when raised in class at 7/1 last time on this course. Respected but not enough to consider as a selection.

Of the other 2 probables, Grey Abbey (59) won at Ayr last time against fair opposition, but was pulled up at Wetherby and beaten 8 1/2 lengths into 4th in class 104 with 11-10 again at Wetherby before that over shorter. This is a step back up in class and he has topweight. Samuel Wilderspin (55) is also in form, but not against much opposition. He was also beaten in class 284 at Cheltenham behind Royale de Vassey at 10/1.

The conclusion is that the class/form horse The Last Fling has one or two factors against. More weight and pretty much unexpected last time, but not impossible for him to prevail again, bearing in mind he has won a Gd3 handicap off an 8lb higher mark in the past. However, the factors against are enough to deter any sort of wager. No selection.

In the other 2 races, Extra Jack and Vrin are the class/form horses and I'll leave to those interested to figure out if they warrant support or not. Likewise for the other indicated races from other meetings. At Newbury Moor Lane and Moving Earth are the class/form horses, at Lingfield Pulua Pinang and Cuddles (3yo race so beware of lightly raced form horses) are class/form combinations along with Regal Estate at Huntingdon. Remember, the class/form part is just the beginning of the work involved. There is much to ascertain beyond the initial numerical picture.

In closing, I see that Determined has again come to the right conclusion with Moor Lane. He has carried weight before successfully but not against much class. He looks a probable winner but not a good thing.

thankyou very much guest.

Guest,

A big thank you yet again.

EXTRA JACK - I believe he is a bet today.
His win on 21/12/01 was his best performance to date recording best Postmark and Topspeed ratings.
Last run at face value not great but that isn`t the case. The distance and course ( rgt handed ) not ideal and opposition too hot.
Today course, distance, going and significant jockey booking = OK. Proven weight carrier.

Flying Instructor - proven in class,etc but last run hardly inspiring.

Red Ark - consistent and good ability. Probable but is the soft groung ideal. Pulled out last week because of ground.

Remainder no where near on ability.

Regards,

hello all well personally thought there were to many factors against in my opinion, therefore didn,t bet.i will say this though, if i,ve ever seen a c/f horse master tern is it.

Dear Determined,
I went for Extra Jack rather than Flying Instructor, but I would like to point out that when you say "last run hardly inspiring" ,well a horses last run is not always that important, in fact, sometimes, it is irrelevant,
Yours
Swish

Guest,
Congratulations on a very ingenious summing up of the day's racing!

regards,

is this the same guest ???

Hi everyone,


Fulham

I would firstly like to thank you for putting me in touch with someone who has past form books (I am awaiting his reply) and a quick reply to my e-mail.

Swish

For helping me understand Topspeed.

To all

This is without doubt the BEST site I have visited, I would also like to add the only site I have joined, please don't feel me wanting to be spoon fed, I have contributed where I can but in most instances I have been overwhelmed by the information available on this site and feel a little lacking in KNOWLEDGE to be able to give something worthwhile.

HOWEVER

I intend to make amends once the flat season starts, especially after the comments made from this thread and elsewhere.


A THOUGHT FOR EVERYONE

In the Daily Mail (26/02/02) there was an article titled "A WARNING TO PUNTERS" in which was said:

"One leading bookmaker said "We learned then (refering to the Foot & Mouth period) that the BREAD AND BUTTER punter will bet on anything that moves on screen"".

From the above comments I can only repeat what (to my understanding) VDW said in saying DON'T BET, INVEST, to this end I would like to say:

IN BUSINESS FINDING A LOCATION FOR PROPERTY THE No 1 RULE IS "LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION".

IN RACING IT HAS TO BE "TEMPERAMENT, TEMPERAMENT TEMPERAMENT".


I await to be corrected (for surely I have said something wrong above, but hope I am not seen as being judgemental).

TonyJ

Swish,

Your earlier comment and I quote " last run is not always important and sometimes it is irrelevant "

I COULDN`T AGREE MORE.

Infact I`d go so far as to say the last 3 or 4 runs may not be important and even a season`s worth of form on occasions is best ignored.

What a horse has done once it can do again given the right conditions, hcap mark, etc.

I`ve invested on several horses down the years who have `missed a year` due to their high hcap mark only to bounce back the following year.

**** with regards Flying Instructor today he was no doubt running in his class and thefore had to be respected on all known form. His last 2 runs however were hardly telling me a return to form was imminent. Whereas EJ was (in my opinion)in the form of his life.

Add to that I was convinced Red Ark would not show today ( again my opinion ).

My conclusion - EJ was a probable winner.

Regards,

Statajack/Everyone - Hopefully anyone checking out the class/form horses in the races mentioned today would have come to the right conclusion and kept their money in their pockets. Far too much conflict was in evidence today in those races, but it was useful I think to show the pitfalls lying in wait. I reckon Statajack realised the point being made.

There is much more to VDWs methods than just isolating the class/form horse. Everything has to be brought into balance when studying the form, and if you think carefully about it, the factors that need attention should be fairly straightforward.

There was nothing unusual about todays findings. Somedays there is just nothing to be found. The important thing is not to chance your arm on a half chance.

Good evening ,

I note you put up Extra Jack in the `naps table`.

I`d be very interested in how you came to your conclusion if you do not mind.

Guest,

Again, your thoughts on whether EJ was an investment or not would be so valuable and of course very much appreciated.

Regards,

We must have been posting around the same time.

I may be picking at your words but EJ certainly had more than a half chance today. That said I am not in least surprised that EJ was not an investment to your way of thinking.

Could I ask one rather direct question. What % of your investments are in handicaps ?

I hope my question is not too instrusive. If it is please say so.

Regards,

Guest

I agree that none of those you named as the class/form horses was strong enough to be backed as a serious win single today. But given that VDW spoke warmly of multiple betting, and even gave an example - the 1986 Old Newton Cup - where he strongly implied he'd done it, would he not have "made a book within the market" in respect of the 3.00 at Doncaster, with the only plausible "winners in the race" available at about 7/1 and 10/1 respectively?

Fulham
i thought it was Roushayd that had won the
Old Newton Cup.When did VDW say that he used
multiple betting in this race?


Maggsy

My first posting having just come across this forum and its obvious there are some very clued up people.
Having used as I thought what were VDW methods for a while I gave up on them as I failed to have much success and found them too time consuming. Now years later its a salutary lesson to find out that perhaps there was much more to the methods than I ever imagined.
Having become a victim of the melt down of British manufacturing industry I now have plenty of time to investigate properly and luckily have a number of the necessary old form books in fact I have a couple of duplicates which are Haigh annuals and if any one is interested I can give details of.
Its a bit of a cheek to charge straight in with a question but I would like to ask whether Guest believes its necessary to purchase the Raceform Update each week or can I find everything I need in the Racing Post. I stopped the Update a while ago when the forum which I used to enjoy lost its way.

Thanks

I must confess to being one of those who backed EXTRA JACK today.

Whilst I fully accept that not everything was clear cut, I did strongly feel that EXTRA JACK was good value at the early 9/1.

In truth, I still feel it was a 'value' bet even though it lost and given an identical race tomorrow then I would probably make the bet again.

Whilst accepting the point that Fulham made about dutching (although I personally thought the race lay between the first 2 home and RED ARK), I sometimes think that we can become so bogged down with maintaining our 'strike rate' that we let value opportunities pass us by.

I fully accept and understand the need for temperament but often wonder if people would prefer an 80% strike rate at average 2/1 to a 50% strike rate at average 6/1. Food for thought?

Cheers

Dear Crock,
My short list for that race was the same as yours, and I also felt Extra Jack was worth a bet at that price.
In fact I agree with every word you have said in your post.
I backed TYNDARIUS when it won at 25-1 a couple of weeks ago, to me it was a VDW selection. There were won't be many of these, there might not be another one all year at that kind of price for all I know, but my point is that although there were one or 2 things that stopped it being a "true" VDW selection, the outstanding price HAD to make it a bet to me. As I said to Guest, if the next 25 lose I have lost nothing.
And providing I stick with VDW methodology, there is no way in the world I am going to be so hopeless as to pick 25 losers at any price, ever.
In other words I am totally agreeing with you that by trying to be too "perfect" big winners will pass you by,
Yours
Swish

Fulham/Crock/Determined - There was a case to be made for making a book, but it would have involved a small return or leaving out Red Ark. Extra Jacks chance was certainly much better than 9/1, but there were other factors that didn't go entirely his way.

Maggsy - VDW mentioned several ocassions when he made a book during Old Newton Cup cards. The comments were made within the book Systematic Betting.

Romans - Some sort of extensive form book is a must be it the Racing Post,Raceform,etc. Obviously it depends on space as to if you want to retain Racing Posts everyday. I use several popular form guides along with the RP of course.

Dear Romans42001 (do I have to type that every time?),
I think everything can be found in internet Racing Post, BUT, I may be wrong. Mtoto prefers RF update. You can down load it from net for free for a trial period. The only catches I found were that it takes a while to download, and around Christmas time I just got a message saying "staff on holiday, sorry". (This was when there was a full week's racing).
Yours
Swish

good morning everyone,

Determined
i had two bets yesterday extra jack which i thought was agood thing,at the price, and compton dragon which,in my opinion,was a winner in a race and a cert.

i have not been using these methods long enough to pass by these oportunities when they appear,so i dont know of the really obvious ones that will appear at some time in the future so am looking forward to it.

i selected EJ much the same way as everyone else will have there was a slight doubt about the previous grade with this weight,but with manner of his victory, though not impressive was to me worth a chance and that 5 lb told in the end.BUGGER.
perhaps if he a been fav he would have been a cert.

saying that i would still back it again tommorrow because at least half of those will win.

TEMPERAMENT.

i know these may appear to lack this vital factor but i ignored a lot of other winners today so i feel i am making some headway, in a year or two when i have seen the full power of the methods(of which i am only scratching the surface) maybe i will look back and think i should have give those a miss but i am playing now with their money so i feel comfortable with little risks.

happy hunting!!

[This message was edited by Barney on March 03, 2002 at 07:19 AM.]