Ectoo,

How exactly does one find out how the first 3f are run? Apart from the overall time how do we know how any race is run? As you don't want to talk about VDW perhaps you would like to go into a little detail on this idea.

Didn't Mr Beyer say s/f didn't work on the turf? I must be honest I haven't read that much of the american ideas on pace and speed as I couldn't see the point based on that statement. I have of course my own ideas on this and use s/f for the NH as well as the flat. I find I have very little successes on the a/w. That of course could just come down to not wanting to back poor horses where ever they run, so the races looked at are few and far between.

As this is the VDW thread (or Jack and Jill if you will) wouldn't it be an idea to start a new thread. I think Trojan started a thread in the free part of the forum a little while ago.

If you do start I hope it will be a little more informative than this works because I say so. Unlike your contributions on this thread.

Be Lucky. Oh you have been, and not because you found a couple of VDW type selections by accident. :-))

Ectoo,

Just had a quick look back, and the postings are on the What do you want from this forum thread.

I even suggested it might an idea to get you interested.

Be Lucky

Investor
Well why didn't you explain that you are doing retrieval on FAV and 2ND FAV SEPERATLEY!
I see what you are saying.
Whilst one loses the other wins (mostly).
There was a book written many years ago about doing this at ROULETTE.
It was called "13 against the bank"
One bets BLACK whilst the other bets RED, to a retrieval staking plan. (actually the FINOBACCI staking plan.)
Also one of the team bets EVEN numbers whilst the other bets ODD numbers,also high v. low numbers.
The idea is exactly the same. If one is losing the other one is winning.
If the book is true (which it may well be) they won hundreds of thousands of dollars, until they were all barred.
The problem is though (even though you have perhaps been winning for a while)
What do you think or do when, say, the second favs have been performing well and you only need to put £10 on the next one?
Whilst (meanwhile) favs have beeen doing badly
and you have to put £500 0n the next one?
The 2nd favourite bet now becomes f****** meaningless and you just pray the fav wins.
IF YOU CAN'T SEE THIS FORSEEABLE PROBLEM, i GIVE UP.

Swish
What your saying is principally correct.You say if the 2nd fav wins and the fav loses you are staking to win 500 whilst nothing in the other bank.If the 2nd fav bank is clear then split the 500 quid say 60/40 or aim to retrieve in smaller amounts.Over the last 6 months or so i have made good money doing this and will continue to do so,I'm just glad i was given the staking plan,And i already have a sound selection process.So you needn't worry i know full well what i'm doing.

swish you are correct and anyone who backs red & black at the same time is a fool if you want to bet this way then you bet the diff between the two so that if zero comes up you only lose a small % of you stake for the same return the book says fact /fiction on the sleeve and anyone who was going to break the bank would of surely done there homework as you say it is all about value look at the form figs for the french furze yesterday 5/2 rp odds 7/1+ on betfair i am betting place only at the moment 3 places 7 runners 2.5+ on betfair a place now thats what i call value

good luck to all today

Hi Investor
Yes, I did spot Moscow Fler - as you say, too short to bet.

I see where Light Des Mulottes won. That one fitted all the criteria I look for. But in a chase, I do not want to see coments like not at all fluent. Very off putting!

quote:

---

Originally posted by Seanrua:
7 Nov 04.

conclusions:

1) A consistent positive factor of winners in the races I looked at was high OR.
Many winners were from the top few OR.

2) Listed races of at least 7f seemed to produce best results.

3) Winning Prize Money when balanced by good RPR can be another positive factor.

---

Hi Seanrua

1) OR. I shall monitor.

2) Colin Davey would say that 7f to 1M4f contained the races where the method worked best. Was he right after all?!

3) The ability Rating backed up by other ratings, such as the RPM. Yes, I'd agree, but care should be attributed to the type of races that the prize money factor is acceptable. IMO, this would be a better class race where most or all of the horses have sufficient exposed form.

No bets for me today.

BlackCat

Tuesday

What:
2.50 Sedge - Fashions Monty

Why:
It has my usual criteria of 'consistency' and high RPM - is proven over distance, going, course and race value (feb 04). The jockey booking may appear weak at first glance, but he has a 17% SR this year, and a 21% SR with the trainer. Good comment in last race report too.

OR clock:
Well behind 2nd favourite, (but reflected in the weights?)

BlackCat

You were right to say, "no bets today", Blackcat!

I've been at Wolverhampton and didn't back a winner.
It was raining and no favs won, but the OR and RPR thing didn't work well for me.

Cold Turkey 2nd was my best effort.

Trainer intent: Haggas and Osbourne?

I have spent some time with eight lads from Drepung today, Listening to them invoke the Spirit of Kindness must be rubbing off.

Taking the cards as CVDW instructed, for this method, the two races indicated are the Two Forty at Huntingdon (best handicap of the day) and the Three Ten (best non-handicap of the day).

CVDW instructed that we should consider the first two from the forecast in each race, giving us four horses to evaluate from the days racing.

It would be nice to see a few people join in the effort to correctly evaluate the days sport.

I hope this starts the ball rolling.
Who knows we might all learn something.

Peccadillo best bet of the day ??,CD winner,2nd in class b lto,wants good,good to firm ground,A Thornton rode 6-8 wins,HUN form 1-2-1 all class c

Investor
OK good luck with what you are doing. Provided you have the bank and the guts when things go wrong, you should last a long time.

Aces high
Yes good pick, especially 7 runners 3 places =VALUE as you say.

Investor,

What makes a first or second fav in a 7 runner or less race?
1) Top Trainer
2) Top Jockey
3) Good Recent Form.

Inevitably the time will come when the trainers/jocks in form will be moving out and others moving into form.

When this happens you will have no need for laxatives!

JIB
YOU ARE DEFINETLY WICKED!

Seanrua
There certainly WAS a bet today, but not at WOLVS.
The bet was MINSTER SHADOW 1.45 CARLISLE.
It had a speed figure of 93 whilst the pathetic favourite ONLY HAD A SPEED FIG OF 36.
The (meaningless) form figs for the fav were 141.
The (meaningless) figures for the winner that beat the fav by 26 lengths were 334.
Of course this would not count to some die hard VDW fans because this race was not a class "A" or suchlike.

P.K boy
The method you talk of is quite confusing in that vdw says we should only bet provided the horse is in the first 2 in the betting.As we are all aware the forecast 1st and 2nd favs sometimes drift out like a bad smell.This is where iv'e drawn my conclusion that vdw played in the live market because they were all first or second fav prior to the off.There is a possibility that they could have gone out to 3rd or 4th fav.i hope you see what i'm getting at.

Investor,

The passage from TUWOF would indicate that quote would be the case and that’s the end of the matter. However, as in most of CVDW’s work there are other clues, which are relative, spread over other publications.

In a letter to MR Sp iers CVDW made the following comments: after the race selection method was explained.

“Observation will show you that the first two in the frcast and especially the favourite are the prime candidates for the winner’s enclosure. Please do not look upon this as a system because it isn’t, what it will do is focus attention upon just four horses from the many and push the scales well in your favour.”

Regarding the conclusion that you draw, there are certainly passages that would seem to indicate that CVDW played, or more specifically, advised that the live market be observed. The main instance that I recall, at the moment, is when advocating combining three horses in a book, the principal reason being to ensure that a profit can be taken: Whichever wins. This is some thing quite different from the position that you seem to find yourself in.

There are many false favourites, even today.

It’s interesting to speculate on the reasons that horses drift in the live market, but that’s for another day.

I hope the above has clarified my basis for selection of the horses that should be considered.


PKBOY

Tunkie,

Let it run, if your on lay it off. A race full of conflict.

A lot like CVDW's example concerning Ascencia, but unlike that race, they are not all in the same boat.

It is a shame there wasn't more comment, but not surprising.

PKBOY

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,

Thank you, Swish.
I don't do much over sticks so didn't even look at that card!

PKboy,
this is the reason I've stopped puuting up selections - I know nothing about the jumping game.

Trainer Intent was more in evidence than class yesterday, at wet Wolver!

B.C
It is of course your choice,But playing in class F races using these methods will catch up with you eventualy especially when there are higher class races on the cards.I hope you win but it isn't a betting race from a vdw perespective.