B.C
i couldn't have backed Sendintank today,But well done with that one it was a good performance.Iv'e followed him right the way up the ladder and picked up everytime.

Foreign affairs is just that a foreigner.I don't like foreign form,And where the f...s taby

Ruby rocket..I have had my fingers burnt in the past with 3yolds taking on older horses a recipe for disaster as far as i'm concerned.

Comply or die.. Was a very worthy favourite and was very very nearly a "method " bet having said that there wasn't much to beat him when the form of all concerned was looked at.

B.c
Further to my last post Beef or salmon fell into the "method " today btn lto on his seasonal reappearance but was miles clear of anything in this race on a class basis.Must improve a lot to beat Best Mate though.

Hi Investor
I looked at Contact Dancer and he seemed to have levelled off to me, whereas the amazing Sendintank looks to still be improving!

Hi Seanrua
You must have had one or two come up today then!

Hi Ectoo
Why am I messing around with my own selections when I could follow yours and get a 132/1 double up. You must be well chuffed.

BlackCat

Yes well done Ectoo and JIB!

I ended up with two unplaced, two seconds and a rejected winner (CD).

So now I'm left a dejected punter!

OR still holding its own in Listed races, I'm glad to say.

you keep doing your own stuff BC..mine were probably just lucky stabs..I was due a bit of luck mind you

I wouldn't mind a few more days like today

6 Nov.

BC,

I messed up my bets today, but was fairly pleased with the ratings. I just didn't use them properly.

Just to show you how I went wrong, here are my selections with Tote Place returns:

Foreign Affairs 1.30
Ruby Rocket 1.60
Carte Diamond 2.90
Distant Prospect 5.80
Sendintank 1.50

Cape Fear -1.00


So, in theory, start with £1 and end up with
£12.10 .

Actually, I lost money on the day by making some silly mistakes.

Some simple methods would have ruled out Cape Fear, but rule in Carte Diamond and Quito.

Eg, just add OR and RPR ( nothing else): -

Quito 233 won
Ruby Rocket 234 3rd
Millenium Force 227 2nd
Royal Storm 227 4th

Cape Fear 221 5th

Now why did I back Cape Fear and not Quito?

I think you'll find that Carte Diamond and Sendintank come out tops with this little calc. too.

By getting involved with weights and draw, I went off track.

Of course, this wouldn't work at Wolver!

Hi Seanrua

"just add OR and RPR (nothing else)"

I have been thing about rating recently. It is strange, but I find the RPM a much more reliable indicator than Topseed.

My selections use a high RPM as one of the criteria I always take, and the way I bet produces for me 40%+ strike rate - which I think is good. But it is strange that the Topspeed rating for many of my selections would rule it out. I think it was Sendintank today that had bottom TS.

I have not really taken the OR into acccount to be honest, but I will just clock this for the next few selections to see how that fits in.

Sorry you didn't have such a good day today. Bounce back tomorrow!

BlackCat

Blackcat,
Sorry but I am confused, which "system of mine" are you referring to?

Regarding this 1st and 2nd fav, small fields, retrieval method.
I haven't a clue how you can possibly win at it, unless you get virtually everyone right. Which NOONE can do.
If , say the fav was jnt with second fav both 11-8 for example.
You have £8 on each. Total layout £16
One wins. Return £19. Profit £3
(combined odds just under 1-5)
If neither win you will have to stake £80 on next race just to get your losses back.
If neither of them win you have to stake around £500 on just to get your losses back.
I have explained why retrieval is impossible on odds on many times on this thread.
If you don't believe me try it.
Many people, not naming anyone in particular, just cannot grasp the maths of odds-on betting.
Now LAYING odds-on shots with a retrieval point of view could well be very viable.
I have never tried it with odds-on but I am going to examine it. (also it might be b******* but I shall have a look anyway).

Well that didn't take me long .
A quick look at one of my spreadsheets shows me that as many as 14 odds on shots can win on the trot. So you can't LAY them with a point of view of retrieval.
Conversely 5 can lose on the trot so you cant doing it backing them either.
If anyone is clever enough to pick say 90% to 95% winners at odds on, there is no need to do retrieval anyway.
You might as well do steady drip .

Nessie

quote:

---

I nearly pissed my self laughing.

"as long as one wins its impossible to lose! !"

heres another one

"After a losing run always put your biggest stake on the winner"

Ness.

---

This was very funny.

Investor
Can you prove my maths and logic is wrong?
If so please do.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Pipedreamer:
An aspect of vdw's writings that I haven't seen mentioned on the forum were in relation to training ones subconscious.

vdw quote "tell it you want to be a successful punter,and it will show you how".

It was mentioned on page 10 of betting the vdw way,in a chapter called the myth of the missing link.

VDW stated he never wrote anything for the sake of it.Is this more significant than it gets credit for.Does anybody have an opinion on it.How does one train their subconscious?

---

Pd
Saw this while going through some previous posts. If you are serious, the following passage from "Immortal Man" by Neville could assist.

First, have a dream, and by a dream mean a day dream, a glorious, wonderful day dream. Then ask yourself, 'What would it be like?' Then catch the mood of the wish fulfiled and drench yourself with that feeling. Then for all your tomorrows try to the best of your ability to walk faithful to that assumption, and I am telling you from my own experience, in a way no one knows, it will come and it will come suddenly.

Swish
I never mentioned anything about odds on shots,I wouldn't bother with anything beloww 1/1.You also have a divisor of 11/8 in each bank,So irrespective of the price you always back at 11/8 it it goes below.There are 2 seperate banks involved as long as either the 1st or 2nd fav keeps winning you haven't got a problem in the world,It's only when you have a run where both horses lose that the problem occurs any more than 5 and your about doomed.But if you can maintain a 70+ % s/r dutching This won't happen very often.The selection method is the bones of it obviously and these short fields throw up more 1st and 2nd favs that's why my preference lies towards them.

I wonder whether Exactas ot CFS would be any good with these 1st and 2nd favs in small fields, Investor?

I suppose the returns would be too low.

Fishing for Anglers

Hi Swish
“I bait like an angler at times”. Me too!

I do realise the supposed “system” isn’t yours! You were just making a point.

However, it seemed to me to be interesting to look at that ‘point’ to see if it does have merit. And of course, it does.

Yesterdays 5 and 6 Runner Results:
Bank -0.01

1.20 Don Big Moment 2/1 2nd Fav +1
2.15 Ayr Strong Resolve 15/8 Fav +1.87
3.05 D/R Lost –2
1.25 Sand Lost –2

Bank –1.14

Winners still running at 50%+, but prices, as Swish says, make this a non starter.

Today:
No bet day for me. I would have 1.30 Southwell – Light Des Mulottes, but for a comment in his Chase debut notes: “far from fluent”.

BlackCat

B.c
Moscow Flyer comes into the "method " today.Not difficult to spot and very short ta boot.Nevertheless it's absolutely miles clear of these on a class basis and it really should be a sunday afternoon trot.

B.C
it will be interesting to see how manoram runs today.Any horse that can hump 11/10 round cheltenham is a fairly decent animal.Dropping into lower class today but the top 2 in the handicap are giving 10 and 9lb to the next.I have mentioned this before but i would still expect manoram to be there at the death.

M=NR

7 Nov 04.

Right, the flat season is over so I'm stopping my selection attempts.

I've just waded right thru my posts on this thread ( never again!), and here are my conclusions:

1) A consistent positive factor of winners in the races I looked at was high OR.
Many winners were from the top few OR.

2) Listed races of at least 7f seemed to produce best results.

3) Winning Prize Money when balanced by good RPR can be another positive factor.

And from the comments of others:

How a horse finishes over the last two furlongs is important.

Pace of the race is important.

Last three form figures adding to no more than 12 could be a positive factor.

Good previous performance at the Course is a positive factor.

Carrying less weight can be a positive factor.

Down in class can be a positive factor.

Trainer intention and entry policy ( wight compression etc) is a positive factor - if it can be spotted.

Sean,

Thanks for all the effort, your conclusions particularly.

Thank you, JIB, but it's nothing compared to what's done by yourself and others.

One good thing is that I'm a lot clearer about some things than I was when I started, but I'm miles off understanding a profitable use of VDW.

A second point is that I advise anyone making numerous posts on a thread to keep updated records as you go.
Wading thru this lot to find my posts was a bummer and so unnecessary if I'd organised myself better.

However, I think it's been worthwhile from my point of view.

Still very puzzled by the thought of a common denominator in the way a good horse runs the last two furlongs, though.

don't worry about the last two furlong stuff..it's nonsense.

the last two furlongs depends on how the first 3 are run..in isolation the last two furlongs is meaningless

get in to pace handicapping..just another step forward and well beyond the Janet and John stuff that the handicap book created as the mysterious but very basic VDW.