BC,

I find your last post a little surprising, how much more do you want put into the hat? I think you and many others have been given more than a few ideas about how to make this work for you. Lee, Guest and myself may not agree about the finer points of VDW, but all the basics have been discussed in detail. It is quite simple you are looking for horses with consistent form, that have the form to win the race. You have been told where to look for these horses. You have been shown an a/rating, if you are not happy with it just use a bit of logic and devise one you are happy with. The one thing that seems to be missing (or not been understood) is that there often isn't a bet. Just because the race is a good class race doesn't mean there is a bet.

To be honest I thought Ectoo was a very big disappointment. He came on here and said VDW was just a rehash of other peoples ideas. Did he ever give any ideas of how he made money at horse racing, not that I saw? You joined Alan Coldrick's forum, he was never going to explain what he thought the missing link was. You seemed to hang on ever word the man said. I can only think that was because he put up a few selections before a race. The fact that a lot of what he was saying was nonsense didn't seem to matter.

I have tried to explain the a/rating I use. Even folk I have explained it to (in detail) can't or won't see that it works. I have no intention of going into detail on a public board about it. Would you give away a money making edge to all in sundry? I was more than pleased to see it gave the winner of the big race in America on Saturday. I'm more than happy that people think I have it all wrong. I will say I wouldn't have thought of the idea without reading VDW, and I have never seen anyone else come near it.

JIB,

Why do you think it is necessary, or even sensible to back in thousands? Looking at my records the biggest bet I have struck in the last 6 years has been £250. I think you have a comic book idea of how a punter works. It maybe because I started with a very small bank, but I just can't see the point. If I can make a good wage that's enough for me. Yes, it is easier now the exchanges are here, but old habits die hard.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Iam not interested in any particular members size of stake, it is a personal matter, for example I now put a fiver on my list selections but 20 years ago I once put £7,000 on a horse (it lost!).

However from reading this forum it is clear that there are a number of (aspiring) members who wish to finance a St Tropez-type lifestyle from racing, and think it can be done by raking around in ancient formbooks. And that is the lie that has to be exposed.

You and I (now, at least on my part) know that it is best to bet to a level where fun is the majority partner to anxiety, but we are not necessarilly the predominant opinion in this.

If you had to make £25k a year at betting would you feel comfortable? I know I wouldnt.

Some very truthful and useful posts from Blackcat and JIB! No surprise there, of course.

However, I am a bit surprised by Investor's antics; he always seemed to come back before, no matter what was thrown at him.
Perhaps the naked lady has got the better of him.

On the other hand, if he really is good, why waste time on here, when he could be making his fortune? Good luck to him, whatever's happened.

Reality is so harsh, and so hard to accept in this gambling game. Personally, I feel the " no,no,no, you're wrong, but I'm not saying any more" stance is pretty pointless on a forum.

If we know, but want to keep the secret,

a) why bother with discussion in the first place?

b) why not just do the bizz ,and lurk occasionally to allay the boredom?

Like so many things in racing, those questions re message boards have got me fkd, but that's nothing new.

Like JIB and BC, I feel sure we will find little nuggets through cooperative searching, though the worrying thing, that I've noticed, is that so many old threads seem so promising during the first chapters, but then seem to come to an abrupt end, which leaves me guessing:
witness, Max, Bookiebasher, Jimmy, Ibrox, Brick,Ajaz.

What hsappened? I just hope they are very successful.

Tue, Nov 2.

No VDW on the flat today, but I've had a go rating a D2 Hcp:

300 Catterick, £6.9K , 7f

Shortlist:
Digital
Go Padero
Young Mr Grace
Master Robbie

I looked then at the last 6 Topspeed figs.
Couldn't see an edge really, so, (guessing)

DIGITAL is my weak selection.

btw, Betfair was down - an "outrage" again - this morning, so I don't know if anyone matched the selection I made last night, Azreme.

Hi Mtoto

I can only assume that you did not read my post properly - or that I did not explain myself properly - or that you have been drinking to excess.

1. The post was directed at Investor, not yourself. It seemed to me that Investor wanted to obtain more knowledge of the VDW method, but was not prepared to give openly. Having said that, he did give more than some, and perhaps I was a little harsh on him. When I have more free time, I will throw as much into the hat as I can. (As demonstated on Jacks forum, where you will recall I gave lots of advice to 'newbies').

2. I am not asking for more to be put into the hat for myself. I have a very good understanding of the VDW method - better than most, not as good as some perhaps. There are others who are newcomers - Seanrua for instance - who has shown a high level of desire to learn. I don't think the titbits offered to him are enough, and time constaints prevent me from helping more at the moment, when he puts his "VDW" selections up. (Although I have made a couple of comments where time has allowed).

3. Your name (along with Guest and Lee) featured in my post as one(s) who could potentially help him (i.e. Investor). Please re-read my post. You will find it is meant as a compliment, not an insult. Yes, you are one of those who does throw freely into the hat. Sincerely, you have misinterpreted my intent.

4. Yes, I joined Jacks forum. I think he had a more than reasonable understanding of the method. As for hanging on every word the man said: that is your view. Not my view. Jack threw out the line that he knew what the key referred to by G. Hall is. You are correct, he was never going to tell anyone. But I am convinced, as you know, that I discovered it as a result of studying those letters in conjunction with discussions with Jack on the forum.

Be lucky

Morning all
Firstly,I would like to apologise for my outburst the other night.Like NFP said it was pompous andalso arrogant.The post was made more through frustration and BEER,When i read the post the next morning i just switched the computer off and thought F..k it.

People talk about throwing in some silver.I have tried to pindividuals towards areas that need exploring.I have tried to give the negative points a particular horse has on the day.(and all the horses lost).I entered the tipping challenge in good spirit,Putting 6 bets up of which 3 won netting 1.5 points.I could have put many more up.

The reason i said i couldn't learn anymore from people on this thread is because interpretation with vdw differs from one individual to another and nobody seems to bg at it from the same point of view (with probably Black Cat being the exception).You cannot dismiss the ability rating just like that,If so,You are going against the method.I don't disagree that the O.R can often point us in the right direction But these methods are about class and form and if the horse involved don't possess these qualities Then the ability rating or the official rating won't make the horse win.It is what they have done on the race track that will do that.

Hi Investor

Great post. Good to see you back. I was a little harsh on you, and I am sorry for that.

I am going to take some time out this morning and post up my 'silver'.

BlackCat

B.C
With all due respect,I also feel i have a decent understanding of vdw.I have in the past seen so many varied interpretations of these methods,And have also been swayed by Guest on occasions even to the point of changing my bets which cost me on occasions,So now i stick to it as i see it.I would like to see certain posters come back,Lee imo is well worth listening too and Mtoto,but again Mtoto has his interpretation which differs from mine and it can be very frustrating trying to explain things the way i see it when posters have already made there minds up.This is why i feel that no matter what is given it won't make a jot of difference to most and they won't be swayed.I will say it again,It's alright giving an opinion but if you haven't looked at the original horses in depth,Then how can this be formed.Nobody can go through or learn these methods through guesswork,They have to be studieo make a comparison with horses that are running at present.

Seanrua
I can't have Digital in this race.Channon/ Culhane good partnership but we can't bet on that.The 2 horses that i would be giving close attention too are Go Padero and Azreme.But there is conflict,Azreme went off at 4/1 fav at musselburgh and was narrowly beaten by Go padero In receipt of 5lbs.Then was subsequently dropped in class and btn 11lgs.I personally see that as a downturn in form,I see Go Padero as the most likely winner but i wouldn't bet on it.But use your own judgement sean like i said in my last post,i have listened to tin the past and wished i hadn't,But that's the way i see the race.Good luck.

Silver in the hat

I have looked at the method quite closely as described in Golden Years, Silver Lining, Wheil of Fortune and Systematic Betting. The following are MY interpretations and what I have refined the method to use in assessment. I do NOT say that Mr. Van der Wheil necessarily intended these elements to be used in the way described below.

A couple of months back, Pipedreamer put up a post that suggested we list elements we use. This I did, but the only further comment made on it was from JIB, a confirmed VDW heretic! Nevertheless, I will attempt to go through the list and explain what I look for in each segment.

1. Forecast: VDW says first 5 in the forecast, 6 in non-handicaps. This puts you in an area where 83% of winners come from. However, I would say that the entire field should be analysed. I think much of what Mr. Van der Wheil wrote was for the novice, and trying to help the novice look in fruitful areas. Mistakes are made by compilers, and having said all that, if the selection does end up being outside VDW’s criteria (and I have not found one yet) caution and re-check should be the watch-words. But the further you stray from the forecast (and actual) favourite, the lower the chances of success imo.

2. Class: VDW says use several methods of assessing class. Where does he say that?! He gave an ability rating, but suggested that this should be backed up using two further ratings. I am sure we are all aware of how this rating is calculated, so I’ll not waste time going into that. If you don’t know, just ask Much has been written about the frailties of the ability rating. However, I think it is a bit like the Atkins Diet! There is more to it than just the first two weeks harsh regime. After that period, you start adding carbohydrates back into your diet. They don’t tell you that in the News of the World. And so with the ability rating. This class assessment method is not relied on solely, it must be backed up with other ratings which also indicate that the selection is the ‘class’ horse.

3. Days: I do not remember whether this appears in the books. But I have always remained sceptical of a horse who has not raced inside 28-30 days. (Perhaps in the big races, a little longer, maybe 45 days, may be acceptable to some). But I want fresh evidence that the horse is fully fit on the day. This may be a BlackCat thing, but I throw it in the hat anyway. You can always take it out.

4. Consistency: Personally, I like a horse to have one win and one place, (or better), in its previous three runs. One of those placings should have occurred on its last outing. If beaten LTO, it should be within 2L (flat) or 5L (NH) of the winner. (Remember, this is my slant on things – not necessarily the “correct” VDW way). Now this can be slackened by reading the race comments and using personal judgement in the light of those comments.

5. Two Furlongs: VDW says look for horses making a fight of it in the last 1 or 2 furlongs during its last 2 or 3 races. (No problem with this using my consistency assessment. This tells me there is a little more to the Mr. Van der Wheils methods than I have picked up, but nonetheless, I think my grasp of the primary assessment method is sound).

6. Weight: Weight is a great leveller, he writes. I do not like to see a horse going up by more than 10-12 lbs from LTO. I do not like to see it giving weight away to horses that have shown recent form. I can not put a figure on this as such. I (sometimes) use the weights LTO and TTO of both horses, in conjunction the with RPMs of both horses to try and ensure they are roughly “level” in weight rises compared to their respective RPM rises from LTO. (Clear as mud?)

7. Going: The horse should have proved somewhere in its history that it can carry the weight in today’s class of race and going. (I know some also look at track stiffness too. This is not something I do at the moment).

8. Distance: Is the horse proven at today’s distance (and in the same class).

9. Type of Race. VDW says keep to the best (highest value) races of each meeting, best two at main meeting. Again, I would have to say this is simplistic and for the novice. These are races where the horses would be deemed to all be ‘trying’ to win. (Not that trainers would have any intention of holding a horse back, would they?) The other point is that ‘good’ horses, consistent types will more likely be found among the better races. So, how low do you go? When putting up a “VDW” race, I think you would have to keep within those parameters the maestro set. But you may consider that any race worth say £10K or £20K or whatever will contain triers among the main protagonists.

10. G. Hall’s Key. Don’t bother with trying to find it. You already know what it is in fact! If you want to know what it is ask me, I’ll tell you. I didn’t want to just blurt it out here as there will be people who have been looking for ages and may want to ‘find’ it themselves. Or if you’d prefer, I’ll put up my reasoning as to how I came to the conclusion I did. I know that Mtoto and another ex-Jack forum member disagreed with me. But I am sure it has to be this depressing element!!! (Depressing, because we already know it).

11. Jockey and Trainer: I want an in-form Jockey. I want a proven Jockey. The ‘worse’ the Jockey is, the better the horse must be (relative to its rivals) to compensate. Concerning the trainer, a harder fish to fry. Trainers may appear to be out of form, or in form, or have track bias etc., but you can’t be sure that is all there is to it imo. The trainer is one area I need to develop my reading skills in. But what I look for is a trainer that has a reasonable strike rate over the current and previous season. Also, because so much attention is focussed on the horse, we should already know the trainers intention: he has a fit horse, an in form horse, and a horse that is fancied by the media to have a realistic chance of winning.

12. Race assessment: You have looked at the best races, and have a selection shortlist based on class and consistency. You are happy it can carry the weight and will go on the going. And the Jockeys no mug. I now go through each horse previous three races in the RP to see how they have been performing, and write a little summary on each. At the end of that, it will either confirm my selection(s) for the race, or it will throw up some concerns, which will lead to a no bet race. Often, one concern will be that the up-to-now sure thing was recently beaten by another contender! Personally, I do not bet form reverses, other than in a dutched bet, prices permitting.

I don’t want a lot, do I?

Please remember: This is MY interpretation and I fully accept that there will be those that give differeing and better explanations for the elements. That is the purpose of throwing silver in the hat. To read those differing interpretations.

Be happy!

Edited point 4 to alter f(furlong) to L(length) which would tighten things up a tad. (Oops)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

B.C
About 7 years ago i went to a seminar in Bury St Edmunds i'm pretty sure you know who's seminar it was.After the whold thing was over i was presented with his method,Irrespective of whple think of Colin Davey His rip off of vdw is very good but needs a bit of modification.Your approach has a lot of the points that he mentions.I would just like to add that with a little modification it has thrown up 10 straight winners,And has Azertyioup as a qualifier today.I will also say that i will not be backing this particular horse today.Before anybody jumps on me i haven't backed all the 10 horses,Only a few of them.If anybody has the colin davey method it may be worth digging it out and having a look.

Hi Investor

My indoctrination was held at the Bedford Lodge in Newmarket. Subsequent brainwashing was done via a daily Private Sydicate line. Therefore, it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that my interpretation contains some of the bastardised elements of Mr. Daveys modifications.

I have read "The Colin Davey Method" several times, along with his "Key", which is another slight twist on the same theme.

And I would agree with what you have said, his rip off is very good. And he, as a tipster, is very good too, when he wants to be. (Certainly for strike rate, but not for prices). Would I be right in thinking that you didn't back many of those 10 because most were odds-on?

BlackCat

Very nice to see you back, Investor!

You were spot on with Go Padero, btw.

I don't know what I was playing at; here's my ratings

G P 207
M R 201
Y M G 201
Dig 200

Then, trying to use last 6 TS, I have

GP 36 52 65 69 86

Dig 83 56 80 81 49 52

How the fk I came up with Dig after that, I don't know!

Ah well, luckily my own bet today was Trinculo, so not the end of the world.

Some more wonderful posts!

BlackCat's explicit good factors list has been copied and pasted onto my desktop folder to join with several others from JIB, Investor Mtoto, TC and Swish.

I'm picking your brains , lads. I hope it's not painful!

V

Investor,

Well done for pointing your finger at Go Padero!

Your return seems to bringing us luck, my list horse won at 12/1 too!

B.C
Absolutely not.
Prices

11/4
11/4
9/2
11/2
7/2
1/2
4/5
11/4
4/7
4/1
And azertiyoup 6/4 freely available work that lot out on a 10% roller.

Really?! When I used his Method, I didn't get anything like worthwhile odds for selections. When free of work, (oh yes, only a glimmer, but I can't help thinking about it), I will add it to my list of systems to paper trade for a year. Thanks for that.

Hey JIB: 12/1 WOW

B.C
It's a variation on a theme,If you follow the method has he gives it you'll have about 3 bets a year so i wouldn't bother paper trading it.I will put them up when they come around.

Just for info the horses were

Attraction
Hot shots
Vanda's choice
Firebreak
Millenary (twice)
Sporazene
Rigmarole
Gunther mc bride
Football crazy
Spanish don
Azertiyoup.