Lee

I backed zero tolerence and oija board yesterday and i also looked at bobodana from a rouushayd point of view.Did you consider these as bets??

Sunday, October 31.

VDW type flatrace.

310 Lingfield, £17.4K Listed A1 stks.

Shortlist:
Miss George
Coqueteria
Zietory
Peeress

Using a weird and wonderful method this morning to try enumerate class and form, I've come up with the shock selection

MISS GEORGE.

I'd expect 90% of punters would think Peeress is already home and hosed, but my crazy calcs came out this way:

MG 210
Coq 200
Ziet 188
P 155

Well, I shouldn't think any sane person in the world has got those ratings!
We'll see.

Been away on business all week, so first chance to look in for a bit - Quiet init ??

Mtoto

Thanks for your reply and for the Data form link - lots to look at there.

re the Topspeed Ratings - Dont like the Adjusted Ratings, Maybe that he is just too "Clever" for his own good !

The best figures to my mind are what appear to be "Unadjusted " figures from the Last 6 topspeed Ratings given on the Topspeed Analysis page. - I am giving particular attention to the Topspeed lto -

After all what are we looking for - if not the fastest horse in the highest class race lto ??

What I cant reconcile are the Topspeed figures given on the Horses Form page, which I would have expected to be the same as the Last 6 Ratings

For example in the 3.05 Carl - Ebony Lights last 3 figs are 122- 140 - 118 . Whilst on its form sheet they are 106- 124- 102.

It would seem that some adjusting is going on with one or the other sets of figures ???


Some guidence in this respect from those more familiar with the subject than I - would be appreciated.

--------

Just an observation from the 3.45 NEW yesterday

The first three home @ 9/1-20/1-6/1 were all well clear on Topspeed lto each with a figure of 113 ! - co-incidence ??

tc

this horse will have a seriously good winter 2-35 ling moayed

Nice one, Greg!

Good performance.

Not to mention Seanrua !!

Using youre weird and wonderful method MISS GEORGE WON 16/1 well done Seanrua,not bad from youre crazy calcs


Greg magnificent

Wonderful Sean!

nice pick sean

But will the method work again before Christmas?

That's the acid test.

----------------

TC:
I'm struggling with TS.

For years, I just used TS LTO, but there were some meetings where it never seemed to work, and then there were days when,say, three on a card would win (especially "double black TS", ie
lto and best.

I only use the RP paper, but to get yours on line, do you have to pay?

Last year, I used to go into RP on line, and I'm registered and everything, but i just hated all the fkin about, pdf and all that, so I'm out of touch.

Btw, I used to like the old Sporting Life Speed figs, but I can't find those nowadays.

Good job my balls are in a bag, or I'd lose them too!

Tuppenycat
I have asked the Racing Post why these figures are altered as you point out, and why, sometimes when you press Analysis-topspeed it is blank, even though the horses do have figs. They never replied.
I also use the last 6 figs as you mention (sometimes further back, before, but now the 6 figs do not match the speed figs in the form, looking further back has become meaningless.)
Like you I once believed the last run SF was the most important.
Thanks to Mtoto, some time ago, and my own spreadsheets I now know that is not always the case.
The last 3 figs are "probably" the most important but older figures are important as well some times.
The class or prize money a horse scored its fig in is not as important as I once thought (in non-hcps anyway).
Seanrua's pick, today MISS GEORGE got its good sf 2 runs ago in £6000 hcp but won a £17000 "A" listed today. More importantly (perhaps) is that it got it's fig on the same course (Lingfield) and had won there 4 times befor, albeit 0ver 7f whilst todays was 8f.

Seanrua,
Well done with MISS GEORGE, unfortunately I only backed it to place.
See above reply to Tuppenycat regarding On-line RP speed figs.
They are free. You just have to register.

Tunkie
Have you no desire to correspond anymore?

Greg,
Well done with MOAYED!

Thank you, Swish!

You've saved me a lot of wasted effort and time.

Everybody says how these figs keep changing, which is a bit of a worry.

I'll have to keep puzzling. Can't help wondering about the wind and the rain.

Sounds daft, I know, but found today a fine day, and things went better.

All week, it was pissing down and blowing a gale of wind. I can't help feeling this affects horse performance.

I bet in the wild they try to shelter up, and probably stand there looking really miserable.
Well, that's also what they do when I select 'em!

Seanrua (by the way are you Seanrupta Jack who was once on her)?
Despite the messig about with figs like RP like to do, the last 6 figs on RP ANALYSIS-SPEED FIGURES are a brilliant guide.
Did you get MISS GEORGE because of RP speed figs in the RP paper?

Hi Swish,

No, I've never heard of him, Swish.

I am Sean rua on BTTB, however. I rarely post there.
Turfwise and Catweasle are very good over there, btw, and I use the site to see Massey's ratings.

I think Gummy Extra is brill now; you can get nearly anyplace you want from there.

Speed figs:
thanks again for the tip; I must really look into the subject again.

Miss George;

Frankly, Swish, I started with a bias. I felt all season she'd get a win and I backed her and backed her. No good.

Lto, I was at Wolver and backed her again. She came 2nd. Jockey and Trainer (whom I like) seemed pleased, and I listened in to what they were saying; I thought, right, next time.

Then the crazy numbers put her top. I had no option!

Maybe I fkd up with the calcs; maybe it was a blip; dunno.

Today, I see no flatrace that qualifies for VDW, but I've applied yesterday's method to the best race

230 Redcar, £10.8K D2 Hcp 6f.

Sprints can be bastards, and some of my selections are badly drawn, it seems.

Anyway, just for the craic, here's the shortlist:

Circuit Dancer
Artie
Imperial Echo
Marker.

Marhker is my personal choice; another one I follow (sire and today's jockey).

Back from holiday and catching up with the thread. I'd like to take uo a point raised by JIB concerning the tipping challenge.

As I have said before, I would have to say that my selection process is heavily VDW infuenced. The selections made by Blackcat during the recent challenge were not necessarily full-blown VDW ones, but all had similar criteria, based on certain (not all) elements of my understanding of the methods.

During the tipping challenge, although unable to make selections for the first few days due to work, I did make selections to the end of the challenge, and did OK I think. (Better than I thought for October actually). I would be disappointed with less than 38% and delighted with more than 50%.

Therefore, I do consider myself to be in the VDW 'camp' as it were, and although I do think JIB and others offer much that I can learn from, until I have more time, VDW is the only area of analysis I can concentrate on.

The point I am really trying to make is that -as a VDWer - I would not shirk from a challenge. As much as anything else, it's fun to do.

Time is my enemy, and work & family does sometimes consume time to the extent that I can not properly focus on the horses. I am hoping that early retirement may release me from these shackles - perhaps as early as the middle of next year... no certainty, but a glimmer of hope has occurred.

Therefore, this VDWer's conscience is clear, and I look forward - time permitting - to future challenges. Perhaps a full month next time??? But at this time of year, we'll need more on than just vest and underpants. How about the 'in woolly hats with bobbles on the top and gloves' challenge!

BlackCat

Yes, Blackcat, I thought you did really well.

Other committments is the drawback for many.

That's life!

1 Nov,

Selection no good tday with this D hcp sprint.

One off the shortlist was 4th at a big price.

Not good enough at all.

Looking back over my own results, I've done better in Listed races, by far.

No under C class anymore, except in my maiden and claimer selections!

I doubt if there's a suitable flat race tomorrow, but I'll try looking into last 6 topspeed ( TC and Swish) to see what I can see.

Thanks Seanrua - compliment gratefully received!

Another point I'd like to address will probably be after the horse has bolted, but Investor's "leaving" comment: "and with all due respect there is nobody left on here who can give me any more than i already know... ta ta"

You spoke of 'takers' in your parting note. Take the following words and use them to construct a well known phrase: pot kettle black

There were people on here that you could have helped. But you chose to go so far and no further, and now not at all. So, why should someone with greater knowledge of the subject help you further. The reason JIB earns respect on the board is not only his methods, but his willingness to discuss, explore and expose those methods fully.

It is hardly any wonder that he is so sceptical of the VDW influence here when no one will provide clear guidance until they have shown themselves worthy. Is this thread part of the Masons or the Knights Templar perhaps? Are we on a quest for the Holy Grail of horse racing systems. If so, like the Chalice, there will be many who may be surprised by her true identity. (Me among them I daresay).

Come off it Investor. Stay around, and contribute with a more open heart. As written towards the front of Golden Years, isn't it customary to throw some silver in the hat yourself first. There may well be people here who can help everyone. Contributors such as Mtoto, Lee and Guest for instance.

It is posts such as that one of yours that will persuade Gummy to brick the VDW thread back up behind the full forum wall (imo).

Whatever you decide, I wish you good luck nonetheless.

BlackCat

BC,

You are hitting the nail squarely on the head here. This cautious secrecy busines is its own worst enemy. It is only by transparent open debate that we are going to get anywhere.

No one here or on any other board secret or otherwise is driving a Ferrari. Some might have remortgaged their houses to get a stake but they'll be having a hell of a time with the repayments. Without the honesty to acknowlege this reality we will get nowhere.

Some might be doing ok but do they have the confidence to bet in thousands? If not, why not?

Until we admit this frailty we will not get ahead. Or is the answer to do a £1 10-horse roll up each day in the hope that oneday we will collect a fortune?

Personally a lot of scales have fallen off my eyes in the last few years but I still use a white stick!