Ectoo
That doesn't retract from the fact,That he was beaten Giving 12lb to Thisthatandtother,That is my point.Thisthatandtother had shown improvement when stepping up in class.Monkerhostin had also shown improvement but off a lower weight.There were too many if's and buts for me,I have said that "M" had the ability that goes without saying and was also better with the weights.I have looked at this race over again and i couldn't have backed Monkerhostin yesterday.I'm pleased that you and others picked up on the race,But i want everything in my favour and yesterday,s race was left.I can cope with one slipping the net,If indeed it did (from a vdw perspective) but there will be plenty more that get snared.

but can you make a decision Investor?

the decision between horses in a race is not black and white..this is an important aspect and one that i don't see much with the vdw approach.

Ectoo / Investor,

Good to see a decent debate and one which I will add to in due course.

MTOTO,

A question if I may, was Thisthatandtother your top ability horse yesterday and if so how did you view his chance on the course ?

I've been busy with Southwell, and have only just read this interesting, lively debate. Nice to see it refers to recent racing.

I thought Mtoto made some good points, but I can't recall whether it was on this thread or elsewhere.

You see, I rely largely on what is retained in the old swede, and would be totally outclassed in the above debate about weights etc.

I haven't a clue what wt Monk was carrying, except that he was down the bottom.
Can't even remember his price and, no, I didn't back him.

I note, in this morning's RP, the official handicapper has said that Monk would have won, even if Pipe's hadn't fallen.

I agree, though I must admit to knowing next to fk all about jump racing myself.

Cheltenham was the last place I backed a Pipe horse: Gloria Victis - dead.

Illogically, I seemed to hold it against them, and just never liked Pipe/McCoy since. Daft but true.

So, maybe I'm not the best authority to ask about form/class etc.
Somewhere, above in the thread, are the figures I used. Everything came out of Saturday's RP, and I used the old " win prize money divided by number of wins", as given me by Investor.

Then I fiddled and farted about, till I came up with that short-list. Topspeed figures were one of the filters I used.

That's about it really. Maybe it was a fluke, but I don't think these Saturday attempts have been too bad.

Last St Stephen's, I went to Kempton and backed Intersky or somesuch which beat Rooster.

Do you know why? Because I'd seen it top of Ectoo's speed ratings on another site!

Personally, I haven't a clue about the sticks. I didn't enjoy it that day, and thought the £26 to get in was a waste of money!

So, like I said, I'm not the right man to give a useful viewpoint on jump racing.

OK, that's my lot for now!

Ectoo
Of course i can make a decision as i have done all this week and even today for that matter.But i'm not going to throw money at a horse i'm not satisfied with,That is GAMBLING.I don't do that ectoo only when i'm satisfied that i have plugged all the holes up then if it loses that's my problem surely you can understand that.

What's all this talk about gambling and decisions, this thread is dedicated to the discussion of VDW!

Epi
Exactly,Which isn't one of your strong points.Come to that neither is racing in general.You mentioned Monkerhostin yesterday.You were the first person i thought about when it won.A milestone for you epi you actually MENTIONED a winner.Be careful it may go to your pocket.

Dont worry babes, my holes are full of pockets and vice versa.

Investor
Well after 3 years, or, so, you have finally discovered Novice hurdles are a good game to play in, better than class A hurdles and chases then?
Well done, get on!

Determined

Re Monkerhostin: It isn't unreasonable to assume that the improvement he showed all last season was maintained on Saturday, on what was only his 3rd run over fences since showing that improvement.

Ectoo
A rather simplistic view to suppose that the class of the race can be judged by the horses that ran in it? There are hundreds of races every season to disprove such thinking.
Class and form are the basics of the VDW method, viewing one without considering the other is a futile pursuit imo.
Dropped in class my butt!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Swish
I haven't "finally" discovered that the method works in novice hurdles,I just haven't bothered playing in them before.

Ectoo/Investor

Some very thought provoking stuff on the handicap/non handicap class distinctiction which is echoed to some extent throughout the racing of Best Mate.

There are some of the opinion that Best Mate is already a Great Horse, and after winning three Gold cups who can disput that, but other good judges comment that he is not a "true great" until he gives away vast amounts of weight in handicapps and continues to win rather like "Arkle".
Another "true great" measured by the ability to give away weight and a thrashing, is Flying Childers, considered by some to be the VERY FIRST "TRUE GREAT". In 1722 "FOX" had won all the top Plate races and the 2000 guineas. Good recent consistent form.sic. yet "Flying Childers" gave him a stone and beat him by TWO FURLONGS !

P.kBoy
I remember in systemativc betting,Vdw said that desert Orchid was a virtual certainty on 3 occasions.On one of these he was giving nearly 2 stone to the next in the handicap.I know he had been running in far superior class but can you put your hand on your heart and say you would have supported Dessie on that occasion.

I take your point r.e weight,But when a supposedly better class horse is in receipt of weight and goes down.And they meet again on revised terms which in this case favours the better class horse,Do you get your boots on or do you let it run.I couldn't back Monkerhostin on saturday,How did you view the race.

Investor,

When peviously refering to DO it was referencing the race where CVDW indicated the reasons for Forming a book within the market.

On your second point, I am sorry but I dont discuss current race's, ONLY OLD ONES!

P.Kboy
Fair comment.

A question

When did they start grading Handicaps??
I cant for the life in me remember

Anybody know?
What Year

A rather simplistic view to suppose that the class of the race can be judged by the horses that ran in it

well that has to be one of the best lines I've ever read on any board.

Lets get this right, you think that grading a race by £ value is NOT simplistic and is an accurate assessment of the ability. lol

Secondly you don't think it matters which horses run in a race..just the amount they run for in that race.

You have no understanding of class if you think a Grade 2 hurdle is a less class race than a handicap.

Handicaps are for horses that aren't good enough to win level weight races.

You don't need to know much to understand the basics of the class structure in racing, so to show the attitude you do, shows not only complete ignorance, but complete ignorant arrogance.

go away, learn a bit more.

not got a clue.

Some group winners start off in handicaps as well though ectoo.

Boozer,

from the second one, it was either worth more prize money or less than the first one.

whats that got to do with it Walter?

i never said horses don't improve.

anyone that thinks handicaps are greater class races than graded races is pretty much clueless.