Uncanny.

Mtoto,

A horse’s most Recent form, where VDW is concerned, is what is important. It must be consistent; the twist came when assessing a horse that is being dropped in class, and is why VDW advanced his methods to clear up a few important points in assessing form; it comes down to the balancing act that he refers to, but in practice it is a straightforward task.

Of course there are occasions when a horse can be forgiven for a seemingly poor performance.

It’s not me that said the sharp end of the race is where the answers lie - it was VDW (winner in the race). There were one or two references that hinted we should use the race reader’s comments to assess how a horse ran, however, this, as you’ve pointed out, cannot possibly be what he was referring to when he made the comment “what a horses does or doesn’t do at this stage of the race will give you the answers”. It would be a contradiction in terms as many horses, including his very first example lacked the necessary comments to make any judgment at all.

Investor,

I'm not referring to weight at all - it's a product of the OH opinion, but of course can be used to the trainers advantage.

Investor

The 3 horses for the Ponte 3-20
Yes/no

No answer

What

As one example, a horse that noticeably improves to make a race of it at this stage without winning can be looked upon as a potential candidate in the near future and note should be made of how the trainer places it.

doesnt seem to anything mysterious or complicated about the above does there

Straight forward race reading

Why do I always feel I am being led up/down the garden path

lee,mtoto, everyone referring to some more examples in sb,braashee,was in fact going up in class but there was no other horse in the race bar cossack guard, beaten in his previous race by braashee who came close on a class basis, desert orchid won six of his nine races but was there as a more or less certainty three times, pushed well up in class noted by speed figure 82 at ascot,vdw mentions half marked card, lee does this always relate to being dropped in class prizemoney, class of racecourse, exposed and unexposed form any thoughts thanks...mtoto, tried to contact you, was blue spinaker on your shortlist for the cambridgeshire...grundy

This message has been edited. Last edited by: grundy,

Lee,

Thank you!

But I very much disagree that Pegwell Bay was dropped in class. In the 12 Nov 88 race the average OR was 63, and Pegwell Bay was 8lbs above the average class on 71.

However on the 10 Dec 88 race PB had been raised 10lbs, but interestingly enough the average OR of the race had also risen to 73.

In the 12-11 race he won reasonably easily with the 2nd 10l back in what was roughly a standard time. But although the 10-12 race was down in cash prize, the opposition on paper at least was much tougher. I know if I had been around at the time I would not have been tempted at 7/2!

A horse that is usually running in a race Worth 1,800 is unlikely to feature in an event worth 5,000 against horses that have shown form at this level.Please think about it.

Jib
R.e pegwell bay,What do you see.Just say what you see.

Jib
I'm sorry i was a bit late with my last post.You really haven't got the slightest idea how vdw judged class and form.That is now concrete in my mind due to what you have just said in your last post.I just can't understand how you got The Prince on your donkey list yet can't see the similaties with Pegwell bay,Absolutely staggering from my point of view,And for that matter belle Rouge today.Compare the three.

Boozer,

Another example that leans more towards the essence of his comment:

“Greenhills Joy won her race and First Division was second in his. Both were first outings but, although Greenhills Joy won, her form upon inspection is below that of First Division. A slow race and the closing stages show hers was less of a test.”

Amongst an article where VDW shows how the use of speed can help to highlight improvement, don’t be too quick to conclude that the words ‘a slow race’ is what VDW was trying to imply was important. “Her form upon inspection is below that of First Division. A slow race and THE CLOSING STAGES SHOW HERS TO BE LESS OF A TEST.”

JIB,

As I stated in an earlier post, just because a horse is rated 10lbs (or whatever) higher than another doesn’t mean that it is better on the day that they compete – if that were the case the top rated horse would always win.

Furthermore taking an average of the Official Rating of the competitors in a race is a completely illogical method of evaluating class. What if the top two rated horses in the race have ‘belly ache’ and ‘head ache’ that day and finish down the field, or just aren’t trying?

There are 2 factors concerning a horse that a trainer is most pre-occupied with - A) The horses Official Rating, and B) how much prize money they can win with it.

Both factors take some shrewd planning, but the former should beg the question – when evaluating the form of a previous race, are a horses Official Ratings a true reflection of their comparative class? No Chance - in exactly the same way as the Ability Rating isn't.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

Investor,

'The Prince' has never been on any of my lists. I think you must have been 'staggering' again when I explained why it was a selection.

Lee,

Whilst in a small sample the average OR is a dangerous measure of class, it is not only logical but scientifically and statistically correct to assume that the more runners there are, the more likely it is to be a truer measure.

No one trainer has a monopoly of deflating a horses' actual OR against its true one. This being so I feel the difference between a possible selections' OR and the average OR for the race is a reasonable way of evaluating 'relative' class. I should imagine that v few horses (only prospective future sires and dams) true class' are ever reflected in their ORs.

In the Pegwell Bay example the first race was run in a fair time (if the course has not changed since '88) so in my own idiosyncratic way I would have regarded the 10lb rise in OR as a fair relection of his 10l win.

However that wouldnt have ruled out the possibility (mainly because he was a relatively young chaser at the time) that there was more to come. But unless I was sure it would improve again, my conclusion would have been that whilst it was in with a good chance it was no certainty in the 10-12 race.

Okay,

You buggers are way ahead of me regarding horse racing - just about coming up to my first birthday. I asked a simple question (valid I thought) - unanswered.

I will shortly start posting up my selections (or likely horses, heaven forbid I could be pinned down and proved wrong!) 2 for 2 against VDW, from somebody involved for less than 12 months - using ratings no less.

Regards VDW, I asked a simple question, the answer was either yes or no, I got an overwhelming silence.

I looked in on this thread hoping I could learn something - I really wanted to learn something, but from the stalwarts all I've learnt is it is a no bet - nobody gives a race in advance, okay I know Lee has given horses pre race (for which he must be applauded - plus Investor had Quarrymount as a lay, heaven forbid I had a "system" that had it as a lay - emailed pre race as the ONLY lay today).

You all claim this, that and the other - after the race!

Sorry, you may have the goose, for which I have given as your possible defence - I now really feel you have nothing more than hot air.

The absolute irony might be that Clive Holt (I know JohnD had a bad personal experience ) - put forward much of what VDW said.

Lee,

Just for the sake of reference can I assume that you think that Pegwell Bay was a bet on the 10-12 because of what it had already achieved rather than that vdw felt it was improving?

NFP,

Clive Holts fineform premier maximums (-11 CD) are very much VDW selections if the conditions and class for the forthcoming race are compatable with those where the form (-11 CD) was gained.

As Ectoo has pointed out there is v little novelty in the VDW writings. Even Lees' final 2/3 furlong business is pinched from the Americans where it makes more sense because of the almost universal similarity of the tracks.

NFP,

It was painful enough trawling through the formbooks to analyse the VDW selections. If I were you, this is where I’d consider devoting your time.

JIB,

VDW mentioned Pegwell Bay in terms of looking likely to follow up, depending how he was placed, for a reason. Even without knowing where he was going next he fitted the bill of a winner in the race. VDW stated later that 'there were always horses that he judged ready to win, and watching how they were placed gave the game away'.

If it is your interpretation of VDW we are going by, then yes, there is very little novelty about the method. Fortunately it is based on much sounder logic. The final stage of the race business is another example of an assumption based on uninformed opinion. Once again, there were many examples, where there were no race reader’s comments, so how could an opinion be made about these horses, in the way that you are suggesting?

Boozer

quote:

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Why do I always feel I am being led up/down the garden path

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Nofinepix

quote:

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I asked a simple question (valid I thought) - unanswered

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LOL -Been there - done that

Clive Holt? Whre can I find more info please?

Jib
Being as where on the subject of pegwell bay,It might be worth looking at the 2 races against desert Orchid,He had no chance in these 2 races because he was up against higher class horses.But what did the trainer do after.

Tuesday, October 5.

350 Huntingdon, £8K, Class C, Hcp Hdl, 2m ,0.5f.

Nothing qualifies on the flat today, so I'm picking from a type of racing, I gave up seriously years ago.

I make it two selections, each has a negative, so you could either say, "no bet" or, dutch the two, as the prices on Betfair are reasonable at present.

HOT SHOTS, has been the " class" horse

TRAVEL, the up and coming "form" horse.

Top weight and bottom weight.

Any comments?
I may even be tempted to have a small place bet myself!

Re Holt, VDW, Lloyd, I find they are all much of a mishmash.

As Ectoo said, they took ideas from the States ( N Mordin is another one who does this). These were novel to start, thus they sold books and papers to those who craved something different - that's all of us, really, I guess.

Hoola hoop, mini-skirt, Beatles, skateboard, video,mobile phone, DVD, "posh and becks", and on we go - "new" craze after new craze = KOOL, man!

The common denominator is "sell at a profit and make a lotta money".

Ain't nobody gonna give away the "secret" of making money at racing.
However, we can pick up ideas from anywhere and everywhere, and, eventually, develop our own way, imo.

Well, that's the plan!

OFFICIAL rATINGS

I'm still working on these, as I feel they must give us some kind of "impartial" value judgment that we can use.

At present, I believe it may be useful to note how the OR figure for each animal in the race has moved: we should see progression, regression, or the normal fkin about by trainers to keep the thing about the same level over the last six races.

Details of this can be found by checking out what they were given to do each time.

OR is different from weight, of course.
In the past, I've been guilty of paying very little attention to weight, but, the mere fact that jockey's are prepared to waste just to ride lighter, makes me consider that it may be important, after all.
E,G. Sanders on Pedrillo, Saturday. Why bother weakening yourself just to get the pounds down, unless it matters?

Just a thought.