Before the race - as well -

Thanks again !

quote:

---

Originally posted by john in brasil:
Greg,

2nd email to BHB:

_So far I have not even had an acknowledgement of your receipt of this email much less if any atempt is being made to answer it._


----- Original Message -----
From: johngringo
To: info@bhb.co.uk
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2004 4:56 PM


_Sir,

Could you please update me on the current situation as regards a horses' Oficial Rating and how the Oficial Rating is affected by any racing the horse may do outside the UK.

Thanks in anticipation,

John_

---

JIB, this may not answer your question, but you may find it of interest.


click here for interview with Nigel Gray

Mtoto,

The satisfactory number of bets a week for me would ideally be the minimum that generate adequate profit. I expect your the same as me on that score.

I don't bet these attempts at VDW selections, so there is no loss involved. Some of my actual bets can be seen on the thread " Stale Crust and Dripping".

These bets do stand out and take little finding. In fact, it's based on jap's system which stems initially from tipsters in the RP.

Several filters and then we have (what we consider to be) his selection.

However, we don't stop there; more often than not, I find it pays to take on these good things.
You'll see that this was talked about this morning with TC.

There were some negatives for Quarrymount, so Belle Rouge and the forecast were the order of the day.

At the other race with a strong fav (mentioned on the thread) the forecast came up again. This time the good fav was ahead of Royal Jet, 5/1 ew shot.

So, it was a successsful day for profit.

If we check back over my "VDW" attempts, the only one I thought worthy of backing was Attraction, so I've been very lucky.
Lucky especially bc I was going against the live market and the Betfarians.

At this early stage in my look at VDW, I'd have to agree with Swish's flippant remark,
" Don't back the VDW if it's Favourite".

Just my quirky way; I've always hated favourites. No need for any to take any heed of my ways; we each find out what suits us and then we feel comfortable.

Anyway, thanks for your interest, and well done Investor in also mentioning Belle Rouge.

Because of illness, I missed the 320, but would probably have sided with Aperitif, if forced to bet. Only bc it's a Pivotal, but then, so is the Twister, if I remember rightly.
Going back to bed now, so all the best, everybody.

Sorry to hear that Sean, hope your health gets sorted. Thats one of the things I like about message boards and Gummies in particular, it takes your mind off things for a while.

Lee
I'm glad you said most,Desert orchid was upped in class 4 times in the 86/87 campaign winning once,I know the others were against higher class animals.Nevertheless he was dropped 5 times and won 5.So it isn't as cut and dried as you make out.

Sean
That's all i did do,Mention it.Just trying to save someone some money.Get well soon.

IMP,

Thanks for that link. I see it is dated March 1999 and I believe that Mr Grey has been substituted by Phil Smith (?).

However reading between the lines of Mr Greys' interview it would seem that some foreign racing was being used, he mentions Dubai, in assessing a horse.

The obvious question now is has this procedure been expanded and to what extent?

A bit of further searching has revealed that Mr Phil Smith is the Senior Jumps Handicapper.

Mr Grey continues as before but deals with the Flat. There seems to be quite a bit of autonomy between them and each may have differing policies.

This is from the Godolphin site, and referers to the handicappers duties:

"To establish and maintain regular contact with senior handicappers of all the major racing authorities and to exchange ratings and performance records of all horses that are entered and race at international race meetings."

Investor,

I wasn't suggesting that anything was cut and dry with regards to rising or dropping in class, in the way that VDW viewed it.

Merely stating that more of his examples/selections were actually being raised in class, dispelling a common myth that horses dropping in class, VDW style, are more likely contenders than those being raised in class.

Desert Orchid was used to demonstrate that the method with which he selected Roushayd worked just as well over the sticks; Dropping in class is fundamental to these selections, but not of course a requisite.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

Drop in class
Definition?

the same contestants in a sporting event can compete for 50K or 20K

Albeit there will be more positive entrants for the 50K

Boozer
To a degree i suppose your right,But it is also the class of animal they are up against.What they have achieved and in what class,That seperates the wheat from the chaff.

Boozer,

Of course, however, on most occasions the final 2 furlongs of the 50k race will be tougher than that of the 20k race, even if the final speed figures compare. And, obviously, Because a horse is rated 10lbs higher, for instance, than another doesn't mean to say it's any better on the day that they compete.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

Lee
I agree with what your saying,But class and form are also evident with desert Orchid.It's not just about the roushayd method being used over the sticks.

Investor,

Desert Orchid was just another example of VDW selections. Indeed if you've read my posts you will be aware that on the evidence of my research ALL his selections flow along the same vain; Irrespective of whether they are dropping or rising in class, consistent or not (VDW), or because they are competing in the classiest chase of the day and appear first or second in the forecast. It matters not.

What VDW was doing when he wrote Systematic Betting, his words not mine, was publicly advancing his methods slightly. Seemingly inconsistent horses that are ready for the winner’s enclosure need recognising. But there was more to it than just that – “what a horses does or doesn’t do at this stage of the race will give you the answers”.

That statement requires some logical thought where a higher-class race/s (than the one that’s being competed) are involved. Training will sometimes involve a horse being pitched higher than it can cope with, and depending on how the race turns out, and where the horse in question is then placed, will determine if there is a ‘winner in the race’.

Remember that VDW suggested that Pegwell Bay was a likely contender for the winner’s enclosure again next time out. How did he judge this if it wasn’t on how the race panned out in which he’d just ran?

Lee
I understand what your saying,And i agree with you.I think the example you have just mentioned (pegwell Bay) Is a very good one to look at in terms of trying to get to grips with class and form.There is also no doubt in my mind that he would have put money down on P.B in it's next race.

Good talking to you anyway.

Lee,

And did Pegwell Bays' trainer duly place him to his best advantage nto?

what a horses does or doesn’t do at this stage of the race will give you the answers”.

Lee

Tis an interesting sentence
Could be just intellingent form reading allied to distance

I dont know

One thing I do know is that a lot of people seem to delve too deep and come up with more complicated answers based on their research

If it works fair enough but I havent seen MUCH evidence
he did say it was simple though

Investor
Is that a yes then

Lee,

I'm reading what you are saying, but it is still giving me major problems. Are you saying the important race is the last race, or can the key race be one that isn't even one of the last three.

I ask because you appear to be judge whether or not a horse has been raised in class by the last race. As you say many of the selections have been raised in class, but that is purely judging them on the last race. By my reading of the examples most have already proven themselves in the higher class.

You also seem to be saying it's what they do at the sharp end of the race. However there are selections in the examples where no one knows what they did as there are no race comments in the form book. If they won or finished close up we know they were put into the race, but this doesn't apply to some. There are also selections where we can see in their last race they did little or nothing at the end of their last race.

Be Lucky

JIB,

Yes, he was dropped in class to win again, the form is on the RP web-site. The 2 races are 12 Nov 88, and then the 10 Dec 88.

Jib
Excuse me for butting in,The answer to your question is yes,The facts are there on the R/p website.

Mtoto
I think that Lee is refferring to weight carrying performances,And this is where interpretations differ.Although i am totally aware of what Lee is saying,There are other factors that are evident in the examples aswell,I suppose this is where the balance between class and form come in to play.