Is it logical to assume that every horse who wins a handicap has improved it's mark?

For me, the answer is no, but the handicapper thinks so and he usually thinks the 2nd or 3rd has improved also. How can this be when various horses are at differing stages of fitness, etc ?

Now, I agree with VDWs observation that whilst official ratings and private handicaps have some use, they are not or never will be the be all and end all.

As Lee has pointed out, the business end of a race is where the strongest evidence will be mostly. I've also advocated this in the past and the two examples he highlights hold some excellent clues.

In Pegwell Bays race, VDW does his numerical evaluation but he also then writes a brief summary of each horse in the race. Several points of interest here starting with the way he laid the numerical picture out. He introduces us to the past 3 runs class and distance picture. He notably leaves some ratings out which had been there before, why? He also uses a telling description of one horse in particular that gives a big clue to what is simple logic really.

In the First Division versus Greenhills Joy race, again some big clues and if you approach both horses in the same manner that the article approached Roushayd, again some lights should certainly start to go on.

Do the same for Lees selections and St Andrews at Haydock the other day, the same form traits are there.

Seanrua
Firstly the inclination to bet always lies with the individual.

I can certainly see where your coming from with Hot Shots.But a few questions need to be answered,Does the horse go well fresh,Having been of the track for 164 days.He's carrying top weight which he's fully entitled to do considering the company he has kept with in the past.The horse is coming down a long way in class but has won in it carrying top weight.I can't personally see a lot to beat him,But recent form is what we want,I personally would let the horse run,That is of course my opinion.You pays your money,You take your chance.Good luck if you play.

Thank you for your reply, Investor. I agree with most of your points.

It seems that TRAVEL has all the things that HOT SHOTS doesn't, and vice-versa!

The doubts we may have can be better answered by the stable, but even then, it's always a gamble; there are no guarantees in this game.

If ptices remain above 7/2, I'd look for a couple of small place bets, but, I agree, it's a bit iffy.

Then, so am I, so what odds?!

I can see in all examples that I have looked at including Roushayd something significant in the form,that would alert trainers to the fact that they have a winner in a race,it is very noticeable in the Double Vodka and Top Dirham examples,but is in all the rest as well.

It may be coincidence.How did vdw know Pegwell Bay would win again,I would say partly experience,based on an assumption.

pipedreamer
vdw would have based his assumption on the class of horse that he was to encounter,If you look at the race and evaluate it pegwell bay had nothing to fear,Nor did the trainer for that matter.

PD,

Are you saying that the horse is improving?

Nessie,

Winners Back Winners - (Profitable Winners Always Back Value Winners)

ISBN 0 949017 027

I don't know if it is still available and the copy I have has very kindly been lent to me by Mister Daves.

Lee,

Thank you for answering.

Seanrua
Well done if you backed him.

Seanrua
Incidently Hot Shots finished 2nd in this very same race last year carrying top weight.After a similar amount of time of the track.So the trainer certainly knew what he was doing.

I should have said assumption based on experience,I suppose.

jib
I would think that horses going up in class would need improve in most cases.A lot of them were 3 yr olds who would have the scope to do that anyway.

By the way,I thought Fallon gave North Light a dissapointing ride,as he should have made the frame,if ridden with average intelligence,not withstanding the going concern.In the circumstances I think the horse ran a tremendous race.

investor
Agreed it is there to be seen,but how did he know what he would face in his next race?would the same have applied if his next race was the King George at Kempton,not the best example but it will do.

Pipedreamer
After pegwell bay won the race vdw said,"It would appear that he is capable of winning again before long"The word "appear" smacks me in the chops.In the very next race,When the class of the horses are looked at,And vdw could have seen the opposition That word "appear" would have been changed to something different,Remember this quote which i believe epitomises vdw.

"Consistent form plus ability in higher class events is a force to be reckoned with"

It still holds up today,irrespective of what most on here may think.

I hope everything is going well for you,Long time since iv'e had the pleasure to write to you.

PD,

Most trainers will up the horse in class if it is improving but that doesnt necessarilly mean that they will be placed to win as your example to Investor shows and to which Rooster Booster is a famous recent example.

However he is likely to place them to win if he thinks the improvement is coming to an end.

Jib
I disagree,A trainer will up an horse in class ( on a majority of occasions) to prepare them,It's what is done next that is important.For example our good old friend pegwell bay.After winning the Mackeson he was pitched up against desert Orchid Where he had no chance also over 3 miles but finished 2nd.The very next race class 666 over 3 miles 2 furlongs again against the likes of Desert orchid where again he had no chance and was eventually pulled up.So what did the trainer do next,It's all there john you just have to delve a bit.As was the case with Hot shots today.

Jib
Sorry,It wasn't the Mackeson,It was the 3 races after that,That i had in mind.

Investor,

Please read my posts with more care.

I was talking about what a trainer does with an improving horse. Not why a trainer ups a horse in class, reasons for which abound, and for which you need not go so far back as Desert Orchids' racing days to demonstrate.

Jib
Apologies,I just think that the likes of the example i gave are good for understanding the requirements that are needed for a horse to win a race.I know you don't like going over old examples.But there are horses that still carry the same traits that little owl did over 20 years ago.

VDWC thread: when in the history of mankind did so many people post so much to so little effect?

Epi
Maybe the reason you think it has no effect is because you have a complete lack of understanding where vdw's methods are concerned.And that can be the only reason.

Investor: would you care for a public challenge? Two weeks, profitability and strike rate.