A lot of posters come and go Sean. Max was v active on the forum at one time, though VDW wasnt really his game he did post on the thread.

Most of his other posts were in other sections of the forum. A search should dig a few out and they are worth reading as he knew his business well.

PS They're hammering into Alhaadh its down to 5/2 on BF!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Grundy

What do you want to know about gr taylor and mg kent are you referring to booklets or letters from raceform update.

quote:

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Originally posted by Nessie:
I'm going to regret this but

the reason for the sniping is
1. In most cases a reasonale straight question is not answered.
2. very few pre race selections prove the point.

I REALLY want to learn vdw. I think it is fasinating and based on good principles but I for one am stumped because I cant progress without being stonewalled in some way.

ps any chance of an answer to

1. what is the common demoniator
2. which or what forecast is to be used and why.

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Nessie
1. The common denominator is a factor introduced by Lee, so he is the only one who could give you the answer.
Though that remains unlikely, he has given several clues, which,IMO, point in the same direction.
There are some on here who will try to help, sorting through the posturing and the other crap is part of the price you have to pay though.

2. I doubt that any sp forecast is paramount; in effect, they are all educated guesses.
The RP forecast is the industry standard, and should serve in most races as a starting point for evaluation.

Johnd: Does this "1. The common denominator is a factor introduced by Lee, so he is the only one who could give you the answer." mean that you also dont understand what Lee means? What "direction" do his clues point in, IYO,?

Sean/Boozer
On occasions there are many horses in a race that can be discarded very quickly,Sometimes you can be left with 1 or 2 horses that have the criteria that is required to become a bet.On other occasions there can be half the field that have to be looked at.It is numerical,But it just needs a little thought,Remember that vdw said that the bookmaker isn't our enemy.Food for thought.

Investor

Give us A 3 horse example today

thanks Johnd for your reply.

investor. "the bookmaker is out friend"
it is the bookies job to take money from us. so therefore the bookies forecast/live market is best.

Well, thanks to all who replied. I agree with Investor on something; in fact, I have done for well over twenty years: the bookmaker (on course) is our friend.

Anyway, today, Sat, October 2.

315 Newmarket, Grp1, A1, £116K.

ATTRACTION.

Is this a VDW selection?

I think it is, though I certainly will not be backing it. Far too short for me against the likes of Chic.

If forced to bet in that race (at gunpoint) I'd go 50p ew on Miss Mambo - purely bc of jockey/trainer.

Now don't all rush at once!

Btw, I'll keep putting up my idea of VDW selections intermittently for a monrh ( breaks are possible if I've gone to the AW).

Then, in the absence of at least 60% of these selections being challenged, I shall assume that they ARE, in fact, VDW selections, and will tally up the results.

I'll assume that undisputed selections are VDW true, and that the reason for silence is embarrassment, that some plonker - who has never read the books/letters/pamphlets - can pick out the selections.

Sorry about the typos in the VDW selection post. I couldn't be fked with editing.

However, I'd better clarify the statement;

" the bookie is our friend".

Now, I don't mean anything to do with affection ,or being bum chums ,or the like.

What I like about the bookie is that he gives us our opportunity to make cash and he pays up when it goes against him.

As in all business, like I said before, it pays to be wary, and, remember that he'll do you if he can.

The great plus point is that the course bookie is more honourable than many other business clients or employers.

When I was in business, if we got a result, and finished a contract speedily and well, the paymasters didn't usually like it, and often reneged on the deal. They'd look for every kind of discount, and delay of payment. In fact, I've had to write off thousands, bc it's almost impossible to get owed money, without recourse to violence.

Anyway, I'm straying off the point; the next bit, that Investor may trot out, is to say that punters actually compete with each other, and the bookie is merely the middleman who facilitates the deal.

We're getting into dangerous territory here for VDWers . as we're approaching the pricing mechanism.

I'm not sure how they (VDWers) resolve the issue of "ricks in the market", "underlays" and "overlays", "fair odds" etc, when they ardently believe that the top of the market will produce the winner 80% of the time (in the acceptable races, of course.)

I'd have thought that our friend the bookie, who is pricing for a living, wouldn't stretch his friendship so far, that he gives us our winner/his loser, on a plate.
I'm sure he's heard about the 80% business too. If he has information/patterns/premonitions that the winner is not in the top of the market, I'd doubt whether he's going to alter prices to give us the tip!

Boozer
Take a look at lee's examples that were posted before the off.That will be a good starting point for you.

Lochbuie
darasim
Top Dirham
Double vodka
And he also mentioned Mephisto which was a good bet.

To start you off they were all in the top 4 ability prior to the races being run.But they weren't all in the top 3 race class.There is a lot of work involved but if you set thigs out the way vdw did you should see something.

Boozer
1.55 chep
Inca trail 7/4f
Vodaka Bleu 9/4

They were the 2 highest ability rated horses in the race 88 and 56 respectively.

Inca trail..Last 2 runs Finished 20 of 27 class 435 over 2m 5f Carying 10.0 @ 16/1

Lto was plumb last over 2m 4f class 232 again @ 16/1 not been seen since april.

Now look at Vodka Bleu taking into account Class and form,Why on earth was inca trail 7/4 fav.This is a very good example of a false favourite.I await your findings.

Boozer
Apologies mte,They weren't the top 2 abs in the field,Even so this needs looking at from a class form point of view.

but what good is it to anyone nearly an hour after the race?

Investor..the cambridgeshire thread looks very quiet, lets have your selection on that thread BEFORE the race..I know you will make a good case for whatever wins it afterwards.

I'll have a guess..a no bet race..yet again.

It doesnt need to be the Cambridgeshire. Any race would be a relief!

Ectoo
It's a lot of use,If class and form want to be understood.Like i said last night i'll let you lot carry on on your merry way.And yes your right,Nothing for me in the cambridge.

Investor. the horses all showed improvement in their class when compared over the last 3 races to the others in the same race. but the improvement was not always in the form figs. so the better the form figs agree with the improvement then the better the selection. vdw used his own ratings - I used mine and it checks out.Also they were all in the 5/6 of the forecast and betting.

having seen the result of the cambrideshire today I can see why vdw is so fustrating, despite the number of runners it was clear to me that pedrillo st andrews and gatwick were clear so spanish don wins at 100/1.

this is why form is an illusion and you should read what is actually there not what you think is there.

This has been pointed out since the thread started and I think this it the foundation I will be building on.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nessie,

Alhaadh, is up against 2 x Godolphin, 2 x Hannon, a Stoute, a Channon and a J Dunlop horse(s), was RP fc 8/1 and is at best 7/4 on BF! Theres no value in that!

perhaps we need a little 'encouragement' to place.

Hills for Gosden is a very strong booking.