investor you posted 6 minutes ago yet still here (saw you in the gallery)

eithr that or your back again!
It only takes me a couple of minutes too!! LOL

nite.

Nessie --

been sat here - wondering - just when - you were - going to "Release the ArroW" !!



tc

About Go Tech,
this is what I posted at 11.30 this (Thursday) morning:


"For the little good it will do, here are my selections, anyway:

Adaikali,
the one with the highest value winning form this season at the distance, plus Fallon at Ponte.

Go Tech,
one of Easterby's that finished in first four this season, at the distance, in most valuable race (£22.8K).

Outsider: Grey Clouds, Easterby's other runner."


I haven't read the booklets, but I'd have thought that the disappointing Adaikali would have been the VDW selection.

I put up Go Tech because

a) along with James Caird (2nd), he was the only one to have 110+ in each of the 3 RPR columns.

b) Using the RP paper once again, I saw that Go Tech had finished 4th in a £22.8K race THIS SEASON.

Nothing else had matched that!

I take no notice of SPs or recent form figures.

Personally, I think the owners - they include those race tech boys - were having their day today! I didn't know that this morning, though.
Fallon rode poorly today, especially as Ponte is one of his best tracks.

Seanrua --

Well spotted - I didn't - "Listen" !!

What would VDW make of the modern day ratings systems?

If, of course he ever actually existed and was not just a Gerald Whiley (or Jack Goetz).

quote:

---

Originally posted by Tuppenycat:
Nessie --

been sat here - wondering - just when - you were - going to "Release the ArroW" !!



tc

---

What,and burst Investor's naked woman ?

Sorry Investor - but that was f****n funny.

Johnd - LOL - that was VERY funny

I wonder if someone who has rsb might have looked at the sp`s lto/strike rate next time out percentages to see if there was anything in it.

morning everyone.

I thought about the sp thing and went through some results comparing sp's and consistecy ratings (111 ; 131 ; 221 etc) like most things its common sense.

if say form fig 3071 means
3rd
then entered into a high class race and came 0
then beter price offered came 7th.
Then dropped in class perhaps lessweight etc with good price and romped home.

but this horse is not consitant so does not follo through.


next horse with 3221

was always in the top 5 in the forecast and today was one of 2 with consisant form.
it would also follow through that this horse would have improving constent ratings too.

'follow the trainer' compare the races / class/ forecast/sp/ratings

also notice how the formline improves
3071 improved over last 3 races

but 3221 was consistant and improving and always in the forecast.

common sense?

305 Ascot today

1-31 My Renee 2nd
1542 Hidden Hope 3rd
6321 Polar Jem


watch them lose!! LOL

The winner was 14/1 Mazuna form figs 2322? hmmm.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nessie,

not a good day for examples (low prize mony) but for dutching the vdw way we might look at these.

2:10, 17 run - WORCESTER 24 Sep 2004
Jeeves 40th Novices' Hurdle (Class E) (4yo+) Winner £3;516.50 2m4f GD-FM

8 452- Mister Flint 154   P J Hobbs  6 10-12 R Johnson  PM127 WON
1 51 Donald 12  M Pitman  4 11-4 N Fehily  PM92

5:10, 20 run - HAYDOCK 24 Sep 2004
Racing UK On Channel 432 Handicap (E3) (3yo+;0-70) Winner £3;885.70 1m4f (1m3f200y) HEAVY

9(13) 9211 Circassian (ex6) 6   Sir Mark Prescott  3 9-4 S Sanders  PM91 * *9211
5(1) 0532 General 28  C R Dore  7 9-5 R Thomas(3)  PM86 *0532
1(14) 3111 Artistic Style (ex6) 8  B Ellison  4 9-13 T Eaves(3)  PM85 * * *3111   WON
11(16) -122 Can Can Flyer 17   M Johnston  3 8-13 R Ffrench  PM83 * * *122

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nessie,

Sorry I can't offer anything on the races you chose, Nessie. Far too hard for me, but I looked at the £29K , Grp3, A1, 305 Ascot.

Maybe this race should be rejected by VDWers as it's for female animals, and I have a feeling VDW said not to back in fillies'races.

Mind you, I could be confused: I might have heard it from Jock Bingham, Charlie Anderson, Gerard Whiley, Jack Goetz, Barney or Investor.


Anyway, as is becoming all too common, no bet for me in this race, BUT

I make the two candidates - on my limited take of VDW methodology minus consistency and sp criteria -

My Renee
Hidden Hope.

These come out tops on what they've done in higher class races this season.

However, when I checked my usual ratings, which consider the connections, I found them both to be negative,
so I'll throw in Beneventa as well.

That wasn't very brave or clever now, was it?

On the subject of lists to follow, I'm going to talk about one such means that VDW put forward in his book Systematic Betting. This is the method whereby horses from the current season are placed on a list having been placed 1st or 2nd in either of the two most valuable races on a card which were also in the first three in the market at any of the following courses : Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown or York.

Year after year this method provides a list full of future winners, but obviously they are only backed after a full evaluation of a race shows them up as the likely contender. From all the races today worth looking at, the following from my list are engaged to run.

Haydock 2.50

St Andrews

2.00 Ascot

Impeller (Won)
Gold History (Won)
Border Castle

2.30 Ascot

Oasis Star
Tony The Tap (Won)

3.05 Ascot

Beneventa (Won) Requalified
Polar jem (Won) Req (Won)

Several of these have already won since qualifying with both Beneventa and Polar Jem re-qualifying, the latter winning again. I've just included them for info purposes.

Obviously I have already undertaken a detailed evaluation of these races and the race that holds the best promise is the 2.50 at Haydock and that is not just because there is only one qulaifier from the list by the way.

Three points I note regarding class are the class of race it has been running in, the best class of race it has shown form in along with it's best winning class rating in the last 12 months.

On a class basis last time out Excelsius ran 4th class 232, St Andrews ran 7th class 226, Resplendent One ran 4th class 203 and Will He Wish wa unplaced class 174. All others are raised in race class to todays class 187.

The best four class runs are St Andrews 2nd class 580 over 1 mile, Excelsius 4th class 232 1 mile, Resplendent One 4th class 203 1 mile and Young Mr Grace 1st class 123 1 mile.

The best four class wins are Excelsius class 133 1 mile, Young Mr Grace class 123 1 mile, Imperialistic class 100 1 mile, Will he Wish class 66 7f.

Points of note are that no horse has won in this class rating in the last 12 months, but three have shown form in higher races. A big positive for the list horse is that it showed form in considerably higher class than anything else here when 2nd at Sandown. This in fact was it's qualifying race for the list.

Let's start with the horses in LTO class basis though.

Excelsius is a 4yo who has won two races in France and Italy, but not shown too much over here for John Dunlop. His last race was also at Haydock in a listed event won by With Reason running 4th of 8 but beaten 7 1/4 lengths at 66/1. The class within that race was on the whole very much better than this race, but nonetheless he hasn't displayed enough to warrant selection here.

St Andrews another 4yo has been lightly raced missing it's 3yo season through a leg injury. He started off late August as a 2yo over 7f at Sandown running well then upped to a mile at Newmarket the following month to win his maiden. He rounded off the 2yo stage with a decent run in Listed class at Ascot. This season he made his long delayed reappearance at Leicester in a conditions race over 7f to the odds on Mister Links running 2nd. A few points regarding this was he didn't have an official hcp mark so needed this run to gain one. Also he was noted as having a high knee action, usually suggesting a giving surface will suit.

He gained a mark of 93 for that comeback effort but was then upped in class to a 232 hcp at Ascot over 7f again but on firm ground. He ran ok in 6th improving his speed figure, but didn't give any real signs away . His next run however was up again to a class 580 over 1 mile on Good to Soft at Sandown where he showed great improvement at 6/1 with a topspeed off 102 another big improved effort. What does the trainer do now?

He ups the horse to class 870 but back to 7f and on fast ground again. Although running 6th the horse shows a downward turn speed wise, but this was a much higher race than his previous runs along with being much higher class than todays race or any race that todays horses have run in. The trainer doesn't wait to long before going back to Ascot where the horse is dropped in class to a 225 over a mile and shows improved figures, but only half marking the card. Note the jockey was changed due to the nature of the card at Ascot and the horse wasn't bashed about.

So what do we know about this horse from our list with the best form in the race this year?

Well, we know he looks well capable of winning a decent hcp race and the trip looks to be a mile. He also has shown his best figures on ground with give, no surprise given his leg injury in the past. His last 3 runs, if looked at class wise as this race has been, have been against much the best opposition than others here today and significantly given his last two runs, this horse has been rested and brought back for an Autumn campaign. This is a prize worth taking and for me today is the day to strike a bet on this list horse.

Obviously I have tried to keep this brief and I haven't detailed all the figures involved in the numerical pictures, but I'm sure a look at the races involved will show how the numerical analysis paints the picture.

oops and I've laid it! Young Mr Grace for a place for me.

A wonderful piece of analysis, Guest!

Quite obviously, VDW methodology involves much more consideration than I gave. Very interesting.

I'll be watching those races with added interest.

Guest you really deserve a winner for that post!

I like the idea for the list, just one query: are these all aged horses?

Well it's taken me absolutely ages to get just the bare bones together,For some reason i can't get into the race cards on r/p website and have had to type everyone in individually,This will never better Guest's post.But it will show that on occasions there are a hell of a lot of horses to look at.

2.00 ascot
These are the horses i see as the main protagonits in the race.

Border castle
Courageous Duke
Top spec
Impeller.

Top 3 cons from 1st 5 (n h/cap)
Impeller
Border castle
Courageous Duke.

Top 5 from the field
As above +
Top Spec
Mango Mischief

Top 4 on ability
Border castle
Sharmy
Gold History
Muhareb

Top 3 race class lto
Border castle
Courageous duke
Impeller
Mango Mischief
Boule d,or
Foodbroker fancy
Muhareb

I cannot quite make my mind up as to wether gold history is a form horse,If he is then of course he's c/f,The horse that is popular to most lists is border castle.Which has the 2nd highest ability rating therefore making him 2nd c/f horse.vdw said to go against the c/f horse is going against the odds,The horse looks to have a lot going for it today,But i'm not 100% sure,No bet.

2.30 ascot
The main protagonists as i see it
Apex
doitnow
majors cast
Out after dark
rydal
Khabfair
Mr lambros

Top 3 cons from 6 (h/cap)
Majors cast
out After Dark
Comptons eleven
saristar
Apex

Top 5 from the field
Majors cast
Out Afte dark
Comptons Eleven
Mr lambros
Rydal

Top 4 ability
Bentley's ball
Oasis Star
Apex
Rydal.

Top 3 race class lto
Rydal
Bentleys Ball
Oasis Star
Doitnow.

Nothing at all for me in this race.

3.00 ascot
The main protagonist again from the way i percieve things are.

Summitville
Astrocharm
My Renee
Beneventa
Polar jem

Top3 cons from first 5
My Renee
Polar Jem
Bowstring

Top 5 from the field
As above +
Mazuna
Astrocharm

Top 4 ability
Hidden hope
My renee
Summitville
Astrocharm

Top 3 race class lto
Astrocharm
Mazuma
Bowstring
My renee
Beneventa
Hidden hope.

Hidden Hope looks to have a good chance in this one,But the FORM isn't consistent.That isn't to say the horse doesn't have form,It's just not consistent enough for the race today,Also fails to be noted In both sets of cons ratings.

So there you go,All morning for nothing that's the way it is sometimes,But it has to be done,I haven't gone too in depth with the races because of the time consuming nature of getting the data together,But i'm sure you can see that it isn't just a matter of opening the paper or whatever,There is a lot of work involved and on a lot of occasions nothing at the end of it.