Correction - I am in the process of reading the whole thread again NOT I have re-read the whole thread.

The task is a massive, one which will take me a very long time.

A question - in your last post are you referring to everyone`s VDW selections or the ones I have put up ?

If your referring to mine then I`ll put your mind at rest.

Since I joined Gummy`s website I have realised that I am out of my league, ie - posters on all the threads have far more knowledge than me. That doesn`t mean I cannot and do not make money because I do but definately not in the sums as many on here.

The last flat season was my worst for along time. Why ? Because I have become what MacIntosh once described ( in the Handicap Book - Sports Forum ) as the butterfly, ie - moving from one method to another and thus getting mixed up / confused along the way.

If I`m honest I should go back to my way but that way brings too many losing runs. Also, I firmly believe the VDW way once understood ( if ever ) will prove to be very fruitful.

Why do I not get involved in the crucifixion ? No real reason other than perhaps I feel a little inadequate.

Just to make myself feel a bit better I`m going name several of my best winners from last flat season just to remind myself nice priced winners are out there, ie -

Beauchamp Pilot 10/1 Cambridgeshire
Bond Boy 12/1 race no 5477
Pablo 15/2 race no 5597
Tom Tun 14/1 race no 5670
Johnny Ebeneezer 33/1 race no 4612


Before I am taken to task PLEASE NOTE ALL THE ABOVE WERE FOUND MY WAY NOT VDW`s.

That said, I firmly believe the trainers intension`s were there for all to see in these cases.

Bye now,

Re Adiemus. It is worth noting that he came back last year from a 6 week break, and, having looked all over the winner, fell into a hole in the straight. He came out again, 2 weeks later, and wiped the floor with horses of the same class, a repeat performance looks very much on the cards.

Graham H
Re yesterday's 2 races, I would totally agree with Mtoto that we do need to be fully aware of the capability aspect of each horse in the race. Hussard Collonges had shown, more than once, that he needed a stiffer test than yesterdays, and one wonders about the trainers motives for running him yesterday. Possibly he thought the horse had improved enough to win it on class anyway, if that was the case he was very nearly right.
You won't always get it right, as I didn't with Young Deveraux yesterday, but all his previous form indicated that yesterday's test could be inadeqate. The fact that he won shows that he is still improving, and I would certainly back him to beat Seebald in future, whatever the weights.
Dark'n Sharp wasn't quite up to it yesterday, but (IMO), he ran his best race ever, and is'nt done with yet.
Hope you will post your pre-race thoughts again soon.
Good luck
Johnd

same thing happened to loyal tycoon yesterday,

I really must start doing retreval on these horses.

Re young devreux it is worth noting the trainers comment that he had done no work in the months before his penultimate race, he had only done some light schooling the previous morning.

Also worth noting for future clashes, is that hes already beaten gingembre, I think he's a gold cup fancy of many.

[This message was edited by Barney on January 19, 2003 at 08:21 AM.]

Adiemus unfortunately will not be available at such a nice price next time.


Mtoto,

If I remember correctly Best Mate didn`t exactly fly up the hill at Cheltenham last year. On more testing ground with the emphasis very much on stamina I believe BM is beatable and it looks as though you have found the one to find any chink in his armour. Very shrewd as ever. Good luck.


All,

I wonder how many Cheltenham winners were on show yesterday ? One or two I guess ! There names - I haven`t got a bloody clue.

Cheers,

A lot of people forget very quickly.

didnt VDW say " we can forgive but never forget"

is this the letter that sorted it for G hall?

he says so himself "fortunately c.van wheil elaborated following comments by methodmaker and after burning more midnight oil i spotted the key which was plainly there to see"

also letter 39 para 6.


PS

speed figures, official ratings and form are all utter and complete RUBBISH.

Fulham,
Many thanks for your reply.
Bindaree was a difficult call and what persuaded me was the ease with which the winner won, the proximity of rugged river and the slow race although this latter reason could be why Rugged River was so close in the first place!
I had greater difficulty with the second C/F horse (not that it mattered in the application of the consistancy method). Barton had the ability rating but had beaten nothing of the class of the horses he was meeting here but he had done everything asked of him. I forgave the Arkle on the grounds of distance in that class.On the other hand Whitenzo had run well against decent animals without winning.Can I ask please whether you also had Barton as No 2?
Referring to Kempton were your C/F horses the same and again did you come to the same conclusion?

Thanks in anticipation.

Graham

Johnd and Mtoto
Many thanks for your kind words and continued postings which have helped me no end as I studied this thread over the last 6 or months.I will post again next weekend (work and family committments stop me doing much analysis mid-week)as the comments received on my analysis are invaluable.

Barney,
Thanks for the advice and your postings to the thread. I will do exactly as you suggest over the next couple of days.

Best Wishes

Graham

Graham

I'm not saying you were wrong with Bindaree - I'm genuinely unsure what conclusion VDW would have reached. When I find one like that I tend to count it as a form horse so that it gets full consideration in the final stage of the analysis. Had I not counted Bindaree as a form horse, Huzzard Collonges would have been my c/f, with Barton the 2nd c/f.

As to the Kempton race, I agreed with you that Fondmort, Dark N Sharp and Young Devereaux were form horses. You weren't specific about Seebald: I had him as a form horse, too. Personally, I thought Fondmort was a good enough c/f to back at 4/1, and thus lost my money.

Sorry to have misrepresented your present endevour, then again the timing seems appropriate, if you tell me how far you've got and en passant note the results, I'll do the preceding(?). I suggest we break them down into definite 'no bet' bets, unspecified and stated bets, what do you think?

Barney
Judging by a recent post I feel free to take the liberty of assuming that you've discovered the 'key', where with from here on I expect 80% hits from you.

Go back to NON VDW THREAD

where I expect hits of about 10%

the plane boss the plane

you say form,speed figures,official ratings are utter rubbish,from a man who has picked about 3 winners in his last 30 tipping comp bets,your way cant be right either

quote:

---

Originally posted by Barney:
is this the letter that sorted it for G hall?

he says so himself "fortunately c.van wheil elaborated following comments by methodmaker and after burning more midnight oil i spotted the key which was plainly there to see"

also letter 39 para 6.


PS

speed figures, official ratings and form are all utter and complete RUBBISH.

---

I hope so Barney.

G.Hall looked at the PK example (letter8) and thought he'd cracked it! In L14 he states "My first bet was the Lincoln winner, but then things started to go wrong......" he then refers to L13 which showed him the 'key'. In L15 VDW states " I congratulate him on 'spotting the key'...." and nowhere in that letter can I find anything to discount that statement.

This would suggest that a good starting point would be to work on the examples for PK, Celtic Pleasure, Little Nugget?, Battlement, Strombolus, Rifle Brigade, Orchestra, Derrylin and the Scottish National.

Letter 39 Para 6 - is that the para that starts "To a large extent the art of......"?

Cheers IMP

start with the scottish national.dont think the other 20 runners were out of form some how.


very similar to lord transcend but not as good a bet. Bit ironic eh KING CON.

Please answer my question about Larousse. After that please tell me about the world cruises.

Fulham,
Many thanks for your assistance.

Mtoto/ Johnd,

Having thought about your comments re Hussard Collanges I couldn't agree more. Conventional handicappers will be putting him up a few pounds for that run but he may not have turned in his best performance. Gougenard's previous best over 3 miles was a 24L 3rd in a class 90 at Wetherby. I think it poses those of us who use (or in my case try to use) VDW methodology something to ponder about when these horses next come up for scrutiny.

Cheers

Graham

sorry to interupt the current topic at the moment , could i ask a big favour of any vdw devotees,in regard to past form books covering the main horses vdw used in the race examples, prominent king, battlement, celtic pleasure,roushayd, i have tried browzers on many occasions alas without success so far, does anyone have any knowledge of how to locate these books,could anybody help with this request many thank, whilst on the subject of some old racing books,does anyone remember c v baker.? or another contributor to the raceform called rat,? they had some articles printed i believe in the raceform update, i would welcome members advice,many thanks grundy

john duncan

Grundy

Try

Janet Carter - 01638 717619
Greg Way - 01638 507217
John Pickering - 01439 770931

all small booksellers who almost always have some old Form Books in stock.

Barney, IMP
Letter 13? Try the last sentence of paragraph 4. Then cross reference that with 1st sentence of paragraph 4 of the PK letter. This bit always seems to get missed.
regards,