johnd - interesting that - just one bad race - and the market condemms the horse !

05May04 Chs 19GS B Hcp,69K 8-10 2/17 5L, Anak Pekan[33/1] 8-2 S Hitchcott 101 67 107
28Apr04 Asc 16Sft A Gp3,29K 8-9 9/13 150+L, Risk Seeker[16/1] 8-12 S Hitchcott 101 — —
05Nov03 Mus 16GF A List,20K 8-7 1/6 ¾L, Scott's View[11/10F] 9-2 S Hitchcott 94 36 103
24Oct03 Nby 16GF C Hcp,9K 9-3 1/16 nk, Anak Pekan[7/2] 8-5 S Hitchcott 90 84 103

quote:

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Originally posted by Pipedreamer:
Johnd,
You beat me to it.The 2nd numerical picture,it seems to be unclear,as to what it actually is.

What does the 2nd numerical picture show?How does it help?In my posting on Saturday morning,I mentioned about FORM.Does the 2nd numerical picture point us to the form horses?

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Pipedreamer
In my opinion, not necessarily the same as other's, yes it does point to the form horses, and a great deal more.
In one of his letters, it may have been the Desert Hero one, though I can't recall, he said that he had selected the winner with nothing more than was in that day's Sporting Chronicle.
You may not be familiar with that newspaper, but it held very similar basic information to the current Racing Post.
It may seem superfluous to say it, but where else, sincerely, would you look for the winner?

In the last race at Newmarket i spotted a bet that seemed the trainer had placed it to win,
It was Hannons Elgin marbles,Last on its last run,NR yesterday,Trainer if i can remember has a 17% strike rate at course in 2yo and the only trainer to train a nursery winner at the course in the race,
result was 2nd at 16/1,Aftertiming at its best i know but this is what i think is a value bet,It may have been a better price earlier?,

Im thinking because of its last run it was'nt overbet and the trainer placed it to win

Thanks JIB for the idea of checking class against the average OR in the race.

I'll try some experiments.

mtoto,
i agree with you,there is no need to second guess trainers,its there in the form book.
jib
i agree with you regarding lists,i have been doing them for a while,but i cant see your reasoning sometimes,eg atlantic viking in the claimer?
absent friends
i would be well pissed off with the trainer if it was on my list

Yes Greg I was rather pissed off with the Atlantic Viking business upped 10lbs by the OH, at 9yo he has been removed from the list. Obviously the trainer decided he wasnt good enough anymore. A lot of horses on the list have not even appeared this year and must have been retired, but it all boils down to being placed to win. The horses on the list are only my options, for the rest I have to second guess the trainer.

Without being immodest I think that Goldies Oreientor was my best bit of detective work. It was classic Sun Tzu, when Goldie was v near he had made everyone think he was v far away. By running Orientor in Ireland a couple of times and coming nowhere even with Fallon on board when he brought the horse back to the UK everyone would have been thinking that the horse was not in form because by running it in Ireland the trainer couldnt even get its OR down. On its first race back in the UK on goes Fallon again and Bingo!

orientor,
its 2 runs in ireland were on fast ground jib,why was it backed on a soft surface next time out then?.i dont think many would have been fooled by its runs in ireland

How many people were fooled and for how long is open to debate I got 11.5/1 the night before and the SP was 11/2 so obviously the money went on.

However it would appear that some layers did not initially see the coup, perhaps they were waiting for the going declaration.

orientor
its or went down 4lb while racing in ireland?

I wish someone would point me in the direction of a modern day book - that explians "Handicaping " !!

The BHB official handicapper does not consider foreign races.

The 4lb drop is probably due to his 9th place at York on the 11th of May, (his last run in the UK before embarking for Ireland), where he was on 109 before the race that was at his preferred distance and going.

Jib
Vdw gave us a basic method to follow which entailed.

1.Highest and 2nd highest penalty value races at principal meeting.But also said that others may come into consideration but to stick to the higher classes.

2.Highest penalty value race from other meetings.

Goodwood

Nordwind 121

Perth

Catch the perk 311

Lingfield

Compton Drake 124

i hope you had at least one of them on your donkey register,They were all form horses and at the end of the day that is where we need to be concentrating our efforts.

Investor,

your post is 12 hours too late.

Hes pissed JIB

/groupee/forums?a=tpc&s=800602078&f=401607419&m=9491033511&r=7941036531#7941036531

Felt it only fair to paste a link here - I've bought a super reinforced brolly for the fallout and had some extra skin grafted.

Jib
Don't come that after timing stuff,Merely proving a point about consistent horses,Yet again.

investor
what would you have today and why? thanks

Nes

Pontefract 4.00
A very interesting race and probably the only race that is worth looking at today.

It is though a race with conflict,I would imagine the winner will come from the first three in the market.

I would forgive Adaikal's last run,and he looks to have an excellent chance.It is always difficult to evaluate Prescott's horses,and his is the main reason I find conflict.James Caird will have his supporters but is not for me today,unfortunately a no bet race.

dutch james ciard and gotech?

Yes, I quickly spotted that this would be the VDW qualifying race today, but I soon saw that it's too messy and difficult for me to bet.

For the little good it will do, here are my selections, anyway:

Adaikali,
the one with the highest value winning form this season at the distance, plus Fallon at Ponte.

Go Tech,
one of Easterby's that finished in first four this season, at the distance, in most valuable race (£22.8K).

Outsider: Grey Clouds, Easterby's other runner.