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Scorrybreac Member  |
No bull there, then, TC. You're really getting into this emoticon lark. That tin of Foster's - my head's still spinning in sympathy. Whoa, girl.
Cheers jap |
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Member |
Epiglotis i asked a simple question earlier this evening about ratings which has gone unanswered, although i have seen it answered many times both here & elsewhere but obviously not to my satisfaction, we have been told a horse does not have to be top rated to be a good bet, but according to the spells it all out articles it bloody helps! leitrim lakes was joint top rated on saturday with adjusted postmark in the racing post if i remember correctly, but it needs more than ratings to be a good bet remember the scrubber race vdw put up i think he asked by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast 10/1, ratings alone?.
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Member |
Thanks for the reply. I looked up your earlier question but I dont know the answer. There are some things in VDW that I think make sense, one of these things is that if the horse has everything going for it it will probably win. I dont know what the VDW people have in mind with this but for example if in the race there is only one horse that has won at the distance, on the going, in higher class, had a good result lto in higher class and such like, I think we can say that horse has everything going for it. Cases like this only occur a couple of times a month and Saturday's race certainly wasn't anything like that clear, so, I wonder what Johnd is claiming about that selection.
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quote: A few of my answers 1. VDW's writings has some decent methods of analysis. It's not a 'magic formula'. 2. Good point. I was never comfortable with the fact that everything seemd so rosy with all selections winning. Doesn't completely discredit the method, but doesn't help. 3. If it was invented then it was a damn good and useful invention which has got many people thinking over a long time. I read the Stewart Simpson book and found the method in there useful, having a few decent seasons before the flow of winners dried up. It may not have been written by 'Stewart Simpson' but it was still a useful tool which made me think and helped my betting. 4. I don't believe that there is a 'magic formula'. One of the main tenets of the VDW writings was 'hard work', and that doesn't suggest any idea of a 'magic formula'. 5. VDW points you towards an area which throws up a lot of winners. This involves studying form and there are a few clues as to the type of horses and patterns to look for. 6. I always thought that the '80% winners' claim was a load of b****cks and an irrelevance. It's just too good to be true. 7. I've found the bits I think are useful, and it didn't take me more than a couple of reads. I do re-read to reinforce ideas, but no more than that. Some people dedicate their lives to studying a subject or part of a subject, but that's their choice. 8. Who cares? There are lots of authors whose pen name couldn't be found on the Electoral Register, but that doesn't make what they wrote any less relevant! Rob |
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Member |
There are a multitude of different ratings on the market today. Postmark, Raceform, Superform, Timeform to name just a few. If a horse had to be top rated on form ratings to be a bet then how on earth would people arrive at the same selections?
Cheers |
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Member |
Crock - Your post about ratings says it all really. VDW continually said that his two sets of un-named ratings were not the answer. The study of form and class was more important. He can't make the ratings situation any clearer, unless people think like Jimmy suggesting it was all some elaborate hoax.
TC - Surely you have got the wrong thread? If we wanted cartoons plastered all over the place then I'm sure it would be requested. You'd be better off on some Looney Tunes forum  |
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| <Fulham>
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Rob
Re your answers, maybe if you understood ALL of VDW's approach (which your point 7 suggests, like me and virtually everyone else you don't), your answer to point 6 would be different. VDW did, after all, write that "It is no good stopping half way through the project or thinking a part fare takes you the full journey". Whoever wrote the letters, articles etc set quite a puzzle, and until it has been properly solved, it seems premature to decry the supposedly achievable results. |
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Member |
Good morning
you seem to be getting a little bit frustrated with the thread,Which is understandable,I have on many occasions,Not so long back guest did an exercise,Where he put Qualifying races up and two sets of ratings to go with them.I can,t remember what page,Maybe somebody else can guide you to them,As for everything lining up,This is where interpretations can differ,But basically it's the c/f horse,With all the factors in it's favour But again there maybe differing opinions on what they are,E.G Leitrim Lakes,I would never have backed that horse But johnd's interpretation showed it to be a good thing,Iv'e decided that i'm not going to be swayed by somebody's opinion,I suggest you do the same,Read the books And try to get to grips with the examples,And how he interpreted class and form,There's one thing for sure,In all the time iv'e been reading this thread nobody's going to tell you outright,But there have been plenty of clues along the way. |
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quote: At the prices claimed in the articles I think 80% was, and is, unrealistic. Regardless of that the results claimed are still impressive. Circumstances will always change so the 'full journey' is never complete, though you learn enough to get closer with experience. Rob |
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12.55 Ban.Looks a one horse race with Joss Naylor,But i believe Saint Par cannot be ruled out,Last 2 runs seems to have been pitched out of it's depth,Prior to that very consistent,And in my opinion a live danger.
12.35 New.Joly bey doesn't seem to have any worries with the rest of the field,If i was playing,I would be on this one. 2.45 New.Lord moose looks to have a lot in his favour (the way i see it )again i would back this one,If i was playing. Conclusion: Joly Bey and Lord Moose. |
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Member |
Too much conflict for me in the form today.
Paco Venture or Old Feathers will almost certainly win at Bangor, but there is no edge to either in my view. At Lingfield The Fisio or Dusty Dazzler will probably prevail, but again there is conflict in the form. Probably a good day to get the Christmas shopping done and watch the video later. |
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| <Fulham>
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Rob
"At the prices claimed in the articles I think 80% was, and is, unrealistic" is an altogether more measured comment than "I always thought that the "80% winners" claim was a load of bollocks" but it still imports an element absent in VDW, ie any claim about price. The point about "unrealistic", surely, is that views about what is, and what is not, "unrealistic" change over time, and sometimes surprisingly quickly. I think it is more appropriate to regard the kind of strike rate to which VDW referred as a benchmark which some may attain but which currently appears out of range for most of us. Otherwise one is forced to the view that VDW was exaggerating (ie lying) in this regard. The question is, does that seem likely, in the light of the impression of the man from all the material he left us? |
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| <Fulham>
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Investor
As a matter of interest, how do you discount Rasko in the 12.35 Newbury? |
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The Vital Spark Member  |
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Vanman Member |
lord moose is incredibly near but there are a couple of negatives.
I also get iris royal as more likely. why bother? fulham, i have him out of form |
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Member |
Rasko has showed all it's form over a lot shorter than today,Also on heavy And not with this weight,Dropping a long way in class i know,But so is joly bey,A bit of an unknown quantity,But in the context of today,s race,And using that other picture J.B should prevail,Of course i may well be wrong,We shall see.
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JiB
Regarding your last point about breeding. I think this is one of the reasons why VDWs approach was to be wary of novice events and events for younger horses. The method involves assessing what a horse has done on the course. To do this you must be sure that you have enough evidence that runners have shown how much ability they have. If you are prepared to study breeding closely then I'm sure there is money to be made, but I don't see as a tool in the Van Der Wheil approach. One point that occurred to me is the business of the percentage possibility of getting the winner. From 'The Golden Years Of Van Der Wheil' pg. 40 'The figures show beyond reasonable doubt that consistent form does have an important part to play. If there are three horses in a race each having one their three last races, the figures indicat that is almost certain one of them should win, 33% + 33% + 33% = 99%.' From this it could be said that should four such horses meet each other then the percentage chance is 132%, which makes no sense as 100% is a probability of 1. To work out the percentage chance of any runner in a particular race it must be judged against the remaining runners in the field, not directly from it's recent placing. Before anybody says anything, I am happy that using recent placings to narrow the field down is a very sensible method. My early attempts at picking winners (at the age of about 7 or 8) were basing on looking for horses with good recent form figures and, in retrospect, it was a sound place to start. Rob |
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Investor
Regarding Rasko, I think a problem here is working out how helpful the values of French races are when applied to English form. The same goes for Irish races. Both countries tend to provide more prize money for run of the mill races than the authorities in this country. The race still looks a tough one to call, and I find it tough to split Joly Bey, Iris Royal and Rasko. Rob |
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Member |
1.30 Ban OLD FEATHERS
N.B. As mentioned previously, Hawkes Run is difficult to weigh up, and is potentially better than these,therefore to avoid any element of gamble I will be having a portion of my stake as a csf to cover. Walter/Epi, I will reply to your posts a.s.a.p., please bear with me. |
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Jolly Swagman Member  |
Since the blinkered, humourless, sanctimonious,pedantic approach to VDW on this thread – Has managed to turn his name into –
"A Bloody Joke" In the eyes of the rest of the Forum, - it just seems like the best place for them. When will you realise that you are doing him a grave disservice with all this “Navel Gazing “! TC |
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