The points raised regarding speed figures are interesting guys.

Speed figures are more representative of class than anything else we can measure imho.

The Fayr Jag/Choisir comparison needs clarifying. If Choisir was the champion they talk it up to be it would have run a faster time. These are my speed figures for that meeting. These can be compared to OHR ratings to give you a perspective. Weight is also took into account.

104 HOLD TO RANSOM
98 INDIAN CREEK
111 CHOISIR
114 FAYR JAG/RATIO
93 HOLBORN

These figures point to the Jubilee Stakes not being as strong as people believe and strongly highlight that the Wokingham was THE race to take notice of for future winners. If Choisir was as good as suggested just based on that run it should have put at 125+ rating in.

If you now look at Choisir WITHOUT a time influence and rate it off those behind you can also see it didn't do anything special in this race.

Barons Pit holds the form down clearly and is a key horse here on a A beating B angle. Barons Pit is a 108/110 horse coming in to this race and didn't improve here as subsequent efforts have clearly shown. Postmark clearly rates this it's best performance but if you look at it's Postmarks before and after it shows that he was 7lbs overrated in this race by PM.

So using Barons Pit as a 108/110 marker (it might have finished closer as well because of bad luck in running) we get CHOISIR as beating it 1.5 lengths..about 5 lbs. The weight carried is nullified as 3yo should receive 7lbs so the best pure handicapping figure you can give Choisir on this performance is 113/115 which is very similar to the speed figure it earned.

Basically sprinters at this moment are being hyped up by the press as they all want a champion when in reality the handicappers have never been so close.

True class horses show their class on the clock, Choisir is a good horse on this performance..not a sprinting machine.

The best a horse can do is win, Choisir is probably better than 115 but until it showed that on the clock I wouldn't assume it.

cheers
ec

Ectoo,

Having read some of your posts on other forums, I am very interested in your thinking on speed. If Choisir, and Fayr Jag or Ratio met in their next races who do you think would win? Who do you think is the highest class horse based solely on those performances? I don't take weight into account, as you do what weight difference do you think it would take to bring the races together? Do you think weight could ever bring them together?

Be Lucky

Hi Mtoto

Based solely on that performance I wouldn't say Choisir is more classy than Fayr Jag. The problem with comparing them is that until Choisir is asked to go as fast as Fayr Jag early on you wouldn't know. You can guess, but that's all.

The difference between handicaps and Group races particularly over short distances is that the earlier pace in say Fayr Jags race will be quicker because the pace makers are on average carring less weight than the pace makers in Choisirs race. This faster earlier pace makes handicaps a true test whereas as the final time suggests Choisir's race was not. If Choisir was put in a race where the early pace was created by horses carring 8-0 to 8-5 you would then see what it was actually capable of.

Weight does make a difference to speed and I have used weightless par figure methods and weight adjusted figures. The only time that Group races are comparible to represent the real merit of them on the clock is when the pacemakers carrying 9-0 are just used as pacemakers and so go as fast as lightly weighted handicap horses who are actually trying to win. No one bothers with pacemakers in sprints of course and because of this on some occasions a handicap can be run as fast on final time and imho it is simply the fact that those leading in the Group race are carrying possibly a stone more than those making the handicap pace.

IF in a 6f Group race one horse was put in to purely pace make you would get the winner running consistently faster than the handicap.

Many longer Group races suffer the same fate unless pacemakers are used..in these races the final time will be superior to handicaps. It really is about early pace being true.

In true run races the best horse will always get a bigger speed figure than those that are inferior. This is why class (as people call it)
is best represented by time. The fact that most of our races are not true tests pace wise isn't the fault of the clock.

There is no method in this country that can confidently say this horse is better than that horse unless at least each horse actually runs in a true test. In America they have true tests 90% of the time and the reason Beyer figures are God is because they tell you the "class" horse. They don't care how much money a horse has won or how far A has beat B because the nature of their races mean the clock tells all.

Basically the clock isn't at fault here it's just the style of running and the fact that some races have horses making pace with feather weights and the best races have pace horses carrying 9-0+.

cheers
ec

A good piece EC and one I agree with.Its hard to say who would win now but on the day I have no doubt Fayr Jag + Ratio would have been difficult to beat.
Bio

we need to look at more races unfortnately Bio to make a decision. Whereas in the US you would know after a couple of runs which horse is the fastest or classier..i prefer to say fastest as I can quantify that..classy is a wooly English term that defies definition.

The AW is the best place to rate horses on the clock and as of yet we don't get really classy horses competing against each other which is a shame.

I would love to see Group races on the sand here.

quote:

---

Originally posted by biotechnology:
Robert99
In my view a top class horse can quicken in mid race end race or whenever,IMO Nayyir is a cracking good horse running over 7F at New on sat.Last year he won the same race easily,I was on at 8/1'£50, I hope they give mer the same this year, as he has so much cruising speed & so much foot he will make Trade Fair look pedestrian.IMO
Bio

---

Well how unlucky was that-JP Spencer rode a tosser of a race & done me for a load of dosh!What was wrong with E.Ahern, was he banned.

Summary of selections (S.C.H.B)

Would todays equivalent be the Selection box (R.P.)

Getting back to reality for a minute, Fulham quite rightly observes that the entire VDW project depends on the consequence of trust. With this in mind it's difficult for me to see why anyone would trust an author who never gave any pre-off selections and claimed to have been a Dutch resistance fighter tortured by the Germans yet was ignorant enough to choose a German sounding nomme de plume (at best the latter suggests an extreme of sloppiness that certainly causes me to raise an eyebrow at the examples) unless their belief was primarily fired by the desire to believe. Look at the evidence on the 80% thread, then think about buying 20 year old form books or studying 80 races in the attempt to solve 1.

Delboy

Yes, differently set out, but essentially the same info.

Cheers Fulham

The Influence of VdW (Sad Ken)

Did any member buy this booklet from Browzer's.
May not be of much intrest to the more experienced
members on this thread but was an enjoyable read
for the novice.

Example:

Sunday 23rd July 2000. Kempton - Good/Firm
The Mail on Sunday Mile Rated Stakes
Class C Showcase Handicap
1 mile 3yo+ Rated 0-95

Sad Ken method indicates
Free Option5y/o
Topspeed 21/6. 20
........ 7/7..104 CBSF
Weight (1) 1lb more than lto
Ratings:
Topspeed Master/Latest
Postmark Latest/and Postdata selection
________________________________________

VdW - Sad Ken interpretation

4/1 Calcutta.........06-0806.....(24)
5/1 Free Option......610-303.....(16*)
6/1 Mossy Moor.......4-5317......(11*)
7/1 Resplendant Star.10719-4.....(14*)
8/1 Pantar...........1436300.....(23)
9/1 Omaha City.......06-0075.....(22)
* 3 most consistant

Top four on Ability

Indium........183
Pantar........105
Free Option....98
Choto Mate.....96

The Only one that 'shows' in both is Free Option
who has definite CLASS CAPABILITY having Won a
Class B 0-105 handicap at Newmarket, showed improved
form by way of spped figures and ground conditions suit.
Carrying 1lb more than in its last race - same class of
race today as LTO, when staying on under pressure over
7 furlongs in a Fast run rce. Definte +++'s all round

Result 1st Free Option 3/1 (From 11/2) Sad Ken.
_____________________________________________

He mentions the Capability part of VdW's Formula


Any thoughts on this example

Delboy

Delboy, i used to have the silver lining booklet but have mislaid it, im sure sk from pontefract had a few pages published in that.He made good sense to someone like myself, one of his articles concentrated on an old stalwart trained b T.George who's name escapes me for the moment but he was a standing dish around Kempton Park and won a decent handicap at odds of 20/1 Tremalt i think his name was.Thanks for bringing his name up again Delboy as it has brought back some fond memories.

Hi Walter

Yes, Sad Ken mentions the Silver Lining.

Boozer

In a reply to you on 18 September, I said that I thought there were three VDW methods - the main one, his Handicap Hurdles method and his Best Bet/Next Best method.

That was true at the time, but I've been able to do quite a bit of research over the last month and am now certain that the Handicap Hurdles method is, like the so-called consistency, "winner in race", "Roushayd" and "Pegwell Bay" methods, merely a different way of presenting the same essential core (class/form) method.

I remain completely in the dark about the Best Bet/Next Best method (or, more specifically, how two of the six named selections he gave, Arthur's Minstrel and Rivage Bleu, were found). The only thing I am certain of re this method is that there is no possible way in which either AM or RB could be found by even a generous interpretation of the class/form method.

fulham, mtoto,guest, any member, would it be possible to show the class ability rating for the horses stray shot zamaranda, righthand man any other examples from the class/form horse selections 1984/5 nh season i have managed to get hold of the form book for that period, thanks

In the 3.45 at Carlisle,Enrique the winner,showed many of the attributes that vdw suggested to look for.

It may be of interest to some,or it may not.It is my belief that anybody who looks at this race,in the correct manner,will learn a lot about what vdw was trying to put across.

Hi Pipedreamer

I did have a look at this race and Enrique
was the only possible choice in the race for
me,(even though I did not back it) It was clear
top on ability, top 3 con/form and the only
T shirt horse in the race, not being asked to
do anything it hasn't already done before.

Yes delboy,as you mention the "t shirt",I think this is very important in regard to exposed horses.The two and three year olds who are in effect improving,then they obviously won't come under this scenario,that's why I personally find it easier over jumps,as the form is there for all to see in the main.

We bought the vdw library some months back but at the time of purchase Racing In My System was out of print so we had to wait till recently to aquire it.
Now im not at all sure about which train of thought to adopt with the writings but i find as i read the books some things appear to make sense for a little while at least , it is indeed a fascinating subject though.
One area i have noticed some are having problems with is the best bet/Next best scenario and i wonder if the following will help? if im on the wrong tracks then there is no harm done im only thinking out loud i hope you all dont mind.
"Trainers Selected" page 28 Racing In My System Quote T. Peach : I was sat next to a director who told me me that Ladbroke`s had about a quarter share of the market, but intended to outpace their biggest rivals William Hill in the next few years.I did not smoke, so i gave the lighter to my mother-in-law who liked the odd cigarette and some couple of years later i bought a couple of hundred Ladbroke shares.By the time of the stock market boom of the 1980`s, the shares had doubled, and trebled and both my son and i had a nice little holding that we were able to sell at a profit.
It proved to me that if you got hold of some shares in a good brand name and was prepared to put them away for a few years, the end result could be well worth while.
It was while i was working in a variety of journalistic roles that i learned another interesting facet of racing.I was working for the Bolton Evening News and was asked to write a weekly article for the newspaper`s Buff Edition, which was their Saturday sports special. Because i had to write the article for the following week`s racing i was grateful for the Handicap Book which carried the entries for that week`s racing.But even so, it was extremely difficult to find out actual running plans from trainers and on many occasions i was reduced to selecting certain stables to follow in a particular race.
As many punters well know, if there are two or more horses in a race from the same stable and you tip `trainers selected` then you are on the one that is made favourite.It can get beaten by it`s stable-mate of course, but it`s a better proposition than just backing one of them, which punters often do and then bemoaning the fact when the other one wins.
I often found that the big races would contain half-a-dozen entries from the better trainers, and of course some of them would be lightly raced and form at a premium.So it appeared good sense to leave it to the trainer to select the one that he was going to run and hopefully win with.
For several seasons i showed an overall profit and most of it was due to picking `trainers selected` end quote.

How many entries did the the trainers of VDW`s best bets /next best have in their races before the final decs were known in proportion to the rest of the fields trainers ?.

Walter

I'd be surprised if the possibility you raise proves to be a relevant factor, for taking the (in my view) most difficult example - Rivage Bleu - he was trained by JS King, who never had many horses, while bigger names like David Nicholson and Twiston-Davies had runners. But one never knows, and the next time I'm at the Newspaper Library I'll check with the relevant Racing Calendar.