BARNEY

Yes

A quicker way is to simply average out the last three win prize money and taking the largest average as a base figure (the 100% horse) simply calculate the % of the other runners which gives their % rating,e.g If horse A has an average of say 15k from last three runs and horse B has 7.5k then assuming horse A is the highest that will be 100% and horse B will be 50% because it simply has an average which is 50% of horse A.
It is then just a question of throwing in the usual or C,A,C,P and W as Nessie puts it.

Hope you dont mind me answering Nessie.

The thing that got me thinking though is that surely percentage reduction should be brought into play to give you a guage as to current wellbeing,it also makes the consistency part of the equation redundant.Afterall a balance between class/form seems to be the backbone of the method.
I have banged on about all of this months ago but briefly if you average out the last three runs prize money you should also calculate a base finishing position the same way to work from.
e.g A horse finishing 3rd/5th/7th has an average of 5th therefore whatever its last three average prizemoney is it should only be awarded 50% for the purpose of evaluation.

Nessie
Your'e spelling has deteriorated to an alarming extent,From when you first came on this thread.

As I have saidbefore I have trouble typing and spelling.

Max. You put it better than me thanks. Do you think taking the av last 3 placings is worthwhile? I will try it out as only only do the consitancy as VDW said. Also the last 3 placings in handcaps dont seem as important as in nonhadcaps. But the tables I put here are not fixed because you can check them.

Did you see how class % needs to balnce with form? Pulau had good enough ratings for both and so was the score fig

Just a couple of points and a question.I know it is after the races but it doesn't make any difference.

Max,I agreed with you on the 3.30 Beverley,I could not seperate the two,could anybody on the thread,I would like to know.

Mtoto,the 5.10 Beverley,I know you would not have backed The Persuader because of it's price,but ignoring the price,would it have been a bet otherwise for you?The point I am trying to highlight is the weight aspect,and from seeing your views on it would be interested in your thoughts.

Goodwood 4.20 (I think),from a vdw point of view,there would be no surprise in Bahamian Pirate being turned over,although it couldn't be taken on.

I am surprised that some of the extremely difficult handicaps are being analysed,eg the one at Goodwood today,when there are much easier pickings to be had.It is extremely satisfying to back a big price winner of a big handicap,but this doesn't happen everyday,and there are plenty of small fish available most weeks.

All replies if any, welcome as always,and a warm welcome to all new members.

nessie,

what are the percentages for this class 9010 race?

horse a

3930 2nd,4383 won,8526 won

horse b

2233 3rd,11673 won,2863 3rd

horse c

1449 won, 690 won

horse d

621 2nd, 1405 2nd, 8881 4th


PS most recent race first

BARNEY

Roughly as I dont have a calculator to hand they are as follows-

HORSE A 100%-110%-220% av 145% = total 100%
HORSE B 55%-280%-75% av 140% = total 92%
HORSE C 40%-15% av 27% = total 14%
HORSE D 15%-40%-230% av 95% = total 60%

Like I say they are a rough estimate but whats a % or two between friends.

max,

horse a and b are out of form,

horse d won and c was 2nd


This was the first race analysis that vdw ever gave,.
Many things as there are to commend nessies efforts they are not vdw's methods and purely finding a 100% is far from finding the answers to this puzzle.

BARNEY

And heres me thinking you were looking at a forthcoming race you little devil you.
If as you say A and B were out of form then the logical winner would have been D.It had plenty in hand of horse C and assuming that it itself was in form then it did not win out of turn and would support the figures put forward by Guest who reckoned on 70% of races going to the said horse.
Whatever form horse C was in going into that race it surely had to much to find with out of form horses A and B and more importantly a half right horse D.
I think the example shown has demonstrated a perfect example of balancing CLASS with FORM.
The only way you could dismiss the idea Nessie uses would have been if horse C had won.

max,

my point would be, what is the use of analizing a horse and coming up with a percentage figure if its out of form and plainly wont win


thus the horse is 0% and the next becomes 100% et al, this should give a far higher strike rate and this aspect is more important than the simple figures quoted, for which vdw gave two of his own methods namely Ability and previous race class

BARNEY
Your post justs seems to lend support to my percentage reduction idea when looking at where they finished and in what class because if they are out of form this will reflect in their final figure regardless of race class.

Pipedreamer,

5:10 Beverly.

I wouldn't have looked at this race with a view to backing a horse. The class of the race is to low as are the class of the horses. To answer your question about the weight, I REALLY DON'T LOOK AT WEIGHT. I don't consider the weight can stop a horse, or lack of weight speed it up. I think it is the pace of the higher class races that stop a horse.

Looking at the race, The Persuader was/is the BEST HORSE in the race. He is consistent, improving, proven in this class. Even if it had been a higher class race the price would have stopped me backing him.

One horse I did have a look at was Pulau Tioman, I made him the CLASS horse in the race. I didn't back him because he wasn't consistent, again I didn't look at the weight. I made Tough Love the BEST HORSE in the race, he also wasn't a bet because of the price. I would have wanted 5/1 +, the main reason for this is because he was 14 points (OR) lower than the top rated. VDW said if you use other ratings stick to the top few.

In fact I didn't have a bet today.

Be Lucky

All these ratings are too confusing for me as i am only a simple person, i wont be pursuing them any longer but good luck to those of you who find substance in them.

I would broadly agree with Mtoto on the 3.30, Tough Love was the horse in form,but PT had the class, and it was that that made the difference today.
A profit could have been turned by backing TL with a csf PT/TL, but would only have represented about even money, although better odds than a dutch.

Seeing as so many have already posted their Derby selections and given that it is unlikely that anything will emerge to upset the applecart, I have decided to give my promised selection now instead of on the day.

I was thinking of giving a detailed evaluation, but it would be difficult without revealing more than I wish to do so. The basics should be obvious by now, but the crucial elements that are needed to balance the class and form of each horse appear to remain firmly hidden to most.

There was a horse from the list to follow of 3yos running today at Beverly. On the basic face of it, Moonsprite had a lot in favour, but when the deeper picture was viewed, taking the crucial elements into account, conflict emerged in the comparative class and form of her and her main rivals. So whilst she was very probably the winner she was left to run. In the event she held on from a 150/1 shot so backers just saved their bacon, but it could have been different.

Looking at the principles in the Derby as it stands, the horse with the best credentials relative to the Epsom race is Alamshar yet this horse is not even favourite and currently available at 9/2. Some of you may remember VDW touching upon the subject of breeding and how it played a role in some of his flat bets. But whilst he noted the family backgrounds of some flat horses, he always based final appraisals on what they actually did on the track.

In my view Alamshar has the right credentials and come that Saturday in June he will place his name in the hall of fame.

Interesting that nobody else on the Derby good thing thread has selected him.

Anyway, this is my earlier than expected final post. To anyone really determined to understand VDWs methods, and actually put them into successful practice, I say keep at it and keep asking why why why VDW put things across in the way he did?

If you haven't got the form books to do the research then seek them out, they are out there. You could even cover their purchase price by filling yer boots on Alamshar.

All the best to everyone for the future.

And all the best to you as well guest you are a true gentleman god bless you.Btw i think Arrowson thinks a lot of Alamshar as well & stated as much on the derby good thing thread.

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on May 20, 2003 at 11:41 PM.]

Guest

I'm sure that numerous "regulars" hope that in due course you'll feel able to resume posting, as your contributions have, I know, helped several of us to make substantial progress in understanding the fundamentals of VDW's approach. Indeed, without your postings it is difficult to believe that this thread would have sustained the level of interest reflected in its current 522 pages.

For the present, good luck both with your Derby selection and more generally, and thanks.

Guest,

right until the end you are still helping and giving pointers, what a pity that so few will ever come to understand the full extent of your generosity.

You have helped turn my betting around firstly by making the subject of VDW so intriguing and secondly by your continuous help and pointers on all aspects of the selections given by VDW, when i eventually got the form books.

No one has ever come onto this board and showed the depth of understanding of VDW,s methods that you have and then been prepared to put up with the accompanying shit.

All the best Guest, and thanks again.

Thank you Guest.

Todays tables are interesting.


Class Balanced with form. 100% of what?

Bourgainville, v Harlestone Grey

 GOODWOOD, 21 May 2003, 3:45, M-Real Conditions Stakes (Class B) (4yo+),Winner £12,093.00,1m4f GOOD, 6 Runners 

 Princely Venture,.......................................................Form 5-1-9  (15**)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 155.7k** , Ab = 4k  Score=5+2
 100%  89x 12f 9/24 9rs  /Y Cur  459K    (325 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 459K to 12.1k  IMPROVING ***
 0%  91D 10f 1/3 11rs  Gd Hay  4K    (361 days)(g)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
 0%  80D 7f 5/1 27rs  GS Nmk  4K    (564 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
   .................................. (100%)
 Bourgainville,.......................................................Form 5-3-2  (10**)  sp lto 9/1  Av = 37.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+2
 8%  114A 10f 2/¼L 8rs  Gd San  29K    (25 days)** (g)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from 29K to 12.1k,  No improv
 4%  110A 10f 3/4 7rs**  GF Kem  18K    (30 days)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)
 17%  110B 8f 5/3 24rs  Gd Don  65K    (60 days)(g)   (UP in dist, lengths)
   .................................. (27%)
 Iberus,.......................................................Form 6-6-7  (19)  sp lto 50/1  Av = 23.3k** , Ab = 7k  Score=5+0
 3%  77A 8f 7/15 9rs  Gd Wdr  20K    (9 days)** (g)   (UP in dist, lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 20K to 12.1k, BUT chk figures
 9%  90A 13f 6/19 7rs**  GF Chs  43K    (13 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 1%  82C 17f 6/36 11rs  Gd Mar  7K    (53 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (12%)
 Harlestone Grey,.......................................................Form 3-3-2  (8**)  sp lto 11/10  Av = 13.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=3+3
 2%  111C 14f 2/1 2rs  GF Hay  9K    (236 days)  (Down in dist PLACED **)    UP in class from 9K to 12.1k, BUT chk figures
 5%  107B 14f 3/8 9rs  GF Don  22K    (250 days)  (Down in dist PLACED **)
 2%  104C 14f 3/hd 5rs**  GF Sal  9K    (258 days)  (Down in dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (9%)
 Mesmeric,.......................................................Form 3-2-7  (12**)  sp lto 7/2  Av = 11k, Ab = 11.5k  Score=5+3
 4%  93A 14f 7/13 11rs  Gd Not  18K    (50 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 18K to 12.1k  IMPROVING ***
 2%  93B 12f 2/3 7rs**  Gd Don  11K    (60 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 0%  102D 11f 3/2 14rs  Sft Lei  4K    (205 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (6%)
 Red Scorpion,.......................................................Form 7-5-7  (19)  sp lto 40/1  Av = 5k Ab = 0k  Score=1+0
 0%  51D 8f 7/16 10rs  Gd Not  4K    (56 days)(g)   (UP in dist, Unpl)    UP in class from 4K to 12.1k,  No improv
 0%  62D 8f 5/12 10rs  GF Don  4K    (314 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
 1%  62D 7f 7/10 10rs  Sft Yor  7K    (340 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
   .................................. (0%) 

Sneaky winner

KELSO, 21 May 2003, 2:30, Peter Scott Cashmere 125th Anniversary Novices' Chase (Class D) (5yo+),Winner £5,447.00,2m1f GOOD, 5 Runners

 Mr Sneaky Boo,.......................................................Form 1-5-3  (9**)  sp lto 8/1  Av = 9.3k** , Ab = 7.5k**   Score=6+2
 100%  136x 17f 3/5 7rs  7Y Tip  9K    (13 days)**    (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 9K to 5.4k, BUT chk figures
 131%  115x 22f 5/11 14rs  Gd Fai  14K    (30 days)(g)  (Down in dist Unpl)
 42%  103x 16f 1/3 8rs  GF Thu  5K    (41 days)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Just Murphy,.......................................................Form 3-5-15  (18)  sp lto 14/1  Av = 8.3k** , Ab = 3k  Score=3+1
 51%  90D 20f 15/38 20rs  Gd Asc  7K    (49 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 7K to 5.4k,  No improv
 60%  124C 20f 5/3 12rs  Gd Asc  6K    (57 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
 121%  124D 16f 3/11 10rs  Sft Wcn  12K    (76 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (84%)
 Sunday Rain,.......................................................Form 10-5-4  (19)  sp lto 8/1  Av = 4.3k, Ab = 3k  Score=4+0
 45%  92D 18f 4/17 8rs  Gd Kel  6K    (21 days)** (g)(c)     (Chk Dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 6K to 5.4k,  CHK for improv
 23%  97E 16f 5/10 14rs  Gd Hex  3K    (37 days)(g)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
 27%  84E 19f 10/22 15rs  GS Don  4K    (128 days)  (Down in dist Unpl)
   .................................. (34%)
 Sound Of Cheers,.......................................................Form 10-3-2  (15**)  sp lto 5/1  Av = 3.7k Ab = 0k  Score=5+3
 34%  105E 16f 2/6 8rs  Sft Sed  4K    (4 days)**      (Chk Dist PLACED **)    UP in class from 4K to 5.4k  IMPROVING ***
 33%  104E 17f 3/18 7rs  Gd Kel  4K    (14 days)(g)(c)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 20%  85E 16f 10/31 14rs  Gd Hex  3K    (37 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths) 

Count on it

  UTTOXETER, 21 May 2003, 7:45, Land Rover Gentleman's Championship (Hunters' Chase) (Class H) (2003 Land Rover Men's Open PTP Final) (5yo+),Winner £6,682.00,3m2f SOFT, 7 Runners 

 County Derry,.......................................................Form 5-2-1  (8**)  sp lto 4/9F  Av = 10.7k** , Ab = 4.5k  Score=4+5
 15%  130H 24f 1/6 5rs  Gd Utt  3K    (9 days)** (c)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)    UP in class from 3K to 6.7k,  No improv
 30%  134H 26f 2/10 5rs  Gd Chl  6K    (21 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 123%  139B 26f 5/8 24rs  Gd Chl  23K    (69 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Araminta,.......................................................Form 9-5-7  (21)  sp lto 50/1  Av = 9.3k** , Ab = 2k  Score=4+1
 100%  113B 26f 7/27 24rs  Gd Chl  23K    (69 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 23K to 6.7k  IMPROVING ***
 8%  72E 21f 5/28 14rs  Gd Lud  3K    (413 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
 4%  53F 20f 9/51 20rs  Sft Hun  2K    (454 days)(g)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
   .................................. (66%)
 Private Pete,.......................................................Form 1-3-7  (11**)  sp lto 33/1  Av = 9k** , Ab = 2k  Score=5+1
 88%  96B 21f 7/33 21rs  Gd Ain  24K    (48 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 24K to 6.7k,  CHK for improv
 3%  101H 25f 3/9 7rs**  Sft Fol  1K    (99 days)(g)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
 7%  101H 23f 1/1 10rs  Sft Lei  2K    (442 days)(g)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
   .................................. (57%)
 Philtre,.......................................................Form 4-6-Pl  (20)  sp lto 50/1  Av = 7.3k** , Ab = 4.7k  Score=4+0
 0%  01B 28f Pl/100 16rs  GF Str  17K    (354 days)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 17K to 6.7k, BUT chk figures
 11%  99E 20f 6/35 14rs  GF Utt  3K    (404 days)(c)   (UP in dist, lengths)
 7%  99H 22f 4/24 6rs**  GS Tow  2K    (417 days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
   .................................. (10%) 

an interesting nonrunner leaving Cenkos clear.

WORCESTER, 21 May 2003, 4:00, Tote Betxpress Handicap Hurdle (Class B) (4yo+,0-140),Winner £13,711.75,2m GOOD, 9 Runners Handicap

 Cenkos,.......................................................Form 4-2-1  (7**)  sp lto 2/5F  Av = 53k** , Ab = 38.7k**   Score=5+4
 51%  163B 16f 1/9 5rs  GF War  13K    (11 days)**     ** DIST + WIN **    Same class 13K,  No improv
 255%  178B 16f 2/1 5rs  Gd San  59K    (25 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 325%  154A 20f 4/24 6rs  Gd Ain  87K    (47 days)(g)  (Down in dist Unpl)
   .................................. (100%)
 Ben Ewar,.......................................................Form 4-2-3  (9**)  sp lto 50/1  Av = 15k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+2
 100%  121B 16f 3/21 6rs  GF San  34K    (26 days)**    (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 34K to 13.7k,  CHK for improv
 14%  121D 16f 2/18 9rs**  Gd Utt  5K    (42 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 17%  121C 20f 4/2 12rs  Gd Asc  6K    (57 days)(g)  (Down in dist Unpl)
   .................................. (20%)
 Sonevafushi,.......................................................Form 6-14-3  (19)  sp lto 10/1  Av = 14.7k** , Ab = 2k  Score=4+3
 26%  122C 16f 3/2 9rs**  GS Ain  9K    (5 days)**    (** DIST  PLACED **)    UP in class from 9K to 13.7k,  No improv
 22%  41A 20f 14/92 16rs  Gd Ain  23K    (47 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
 28%  98C 16f 6/39 11rs  Sft Nby  12K    (81 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (11%)
 Mythical King,.......................................................Form 5-1-17  (16)  sp lto 16/1  Av = 12k, Ab = 5.5k  Score=3+6
 30%  54A 16f 17/80 19rs  Gd Ain  23K    (46 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 23K to 13.7k  IMPROVING ***
 24%  125D 16f 1/3 14rs  GS Str  8K    (72 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 13%  110D 16f 5/10 19rs  GS Hay  5K    (102 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (10%)
 Unleash,.......................................................Form 3-1-1  (5**)  sp lto 7/4F  Av = 6k, Ab = 6.8k  Score=3+6
 36%  126B 16f 1/3 10rs**  GF Str  12K    (32 days)    ** DIST + WIN **    UP in class from 12K to 13.7k,  CHK for improv
 7%  96E 16f 1/1 17rs  Gd Lud  3K    (66 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
 7%  107E 17f 3/6 17rs  GS Exe  3K    (87 days)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
   .................................. (7%)
 Persian King,.......................................................Form 1-8-14  (19)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 10.3k, Ab = 3.7k  Score=3+5
 5%  13B 10f 14/46 15rs  Gd Eps  17K    (28 days)** (g)   (UP in dist, lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 17K to 13.7k, BUT chk figures
 26%  109B 16f 8/26 11rs  Gd Chl  10K    (203 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 11%  115D 16f 1/½L 6rs  GF Chp  4K    (228 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (6%)
 Bohill Lad,.......................................................Form 5-11-1  (16)  sp lto 4/1  Av = 5.3k, Ab = 4k  Score=1+3
 11%  117D 19f 1/3 6rs  GF Exe  4K    (36 days)  (Down in dist  + WIN **)    UP in class from 4K to 13.7k,  No improv
 7%  75D 17f 11/45 15rs  Gd Exe  4K    (64 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 21%  113D 16f 5/9 14rs  GS Str  8K    (72 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (6%)
 Hot Shots,.......................................................Form 1-2-Pl  (13**)  sp lto 5/1  Av = 4.3k, Ab = 4k  Score=2+7
 0%  01D 16f Pl/19 7rs  GF Str  4K    (32 days)   (** DIST  lengths)    UP in class from 4K to 13.7k, BUT chk figures
 15%  125D 16f 2/10 7rs  Gd Lud  5K    (49 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 12%  125D 16f 1/6 6rs  GF Wcn  4K    (62 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (4%) 

good luck.

Goodbye Guest. Like Fulham I shall look forward to reading your next post.