2:45 Goodwood.

I make this a race not to play in. The class horse is Riyadh, (nothing to do with averages) but as Max says he is out of form. In fact I make all the class horses out of form. I can only assume Miss Fara is at the price she is, is because she didn't perform well in the last NH season. I must admit I was tempted by the 30/1 + on Betfair, 7/1 + for a place! Something has got to win, and it will most probably be a horse stepping up in class. I wouldn't put money on which one it will be.

Irtahal is the BEST HORSE in the first, but I would want a better price. Rawyaan is the BEST HORSE in the next, but I very seldom back in races with so few runners.

Another watching day I think.

Be Lucky

Max in your tables would you make any allowance for distances btn in races?, it was just something that nessie said in reply to a post of jib`s "In a 6f race coming 5th by 1 length is good, in a 24f race coming 2nd by 12 lengths is bad.

Very clever
I will see if I can calculate the ratings for handicaps for a full flat season from my database
Rank the resulting ratings and compare against actual results
The beauty of this sort of lets call it testbed is
The actual base ratings for instance the place% can be altered to produce the best results.
Yes its back fitting but in this case the criteria are calculations which are hard fact

What do you suggest for horses that have only run once/twice My datbases only take in the current season so there is no last season form to work with
Looks like I would have to build a table out of 2 seasons and use the last season for the test

Come on Walter its complicated enough as it is

Everybody seems that interested in goodwood,That they overlook nice little investments such as BOBAYARO at wetherby,Befor the usual comments come about being after the event.Look at the form of all concerned and it was plain to see which horse was most likely to prevail.

Haydock,

anyone looking at this meeting over the next couple of days had better make sure that their selection has proven form with water wings.

It has not stopped raining since last friday and I guestimate it must have put at least 6 or 7 inches of rain down over the last week.

Boozer .

Guest,
Just caught up with the thread again and sorry to see that you have made your last post for a while.
Please accept my sincere thanks for the help you have given freely to myself and others in the pursuit of an understanding of VDW methodology.I certainly would not be where I am without your help and indeed as I research the old examples together with your posts thereon I know I will benefit from your help well into the future.
Best Wishes for the future

Graham

And you owe it all to Guest and Fulham???

Actually he owes it all to a good imagination and wishful thinking.

It was his imagination I was referring to.

About your Beverley non-runners: I take it these were at a distance for which the track shows a heavy draw bias? I wonder if there would be any interest in collecting unfavourably drawn non-runners on a dedicated thread, somewhat similar in aims to Max's PP thread?

Tables take too long today. Haydock is too wet. 355 Wolvs Bint Royal and 455 Royal Castle 3k races but interesting.
Brihton 435 Africanspur v Tripti Perth845 CitaVere and Pontefact 900 Articburst should beat Aleutina.

Good Luck

Johnd
I do actually owe Guest and Fulham quite a lot.But you,Absolutely nothing Iv'e been looking back over previous posts and it's amazing how you just turned against almost everybody involved with this thread.You was in agreement with Guest nearly all the time and then you just turned,Very strange to say the least.Others have seen merit in what Guest has trid to put across and can understand his logic.But you went the opposite way,I would be interested to know why.

Perception!

A quite superb one word answer that spoke volumes, to a question of 100 words that said bugger all.

Johnd
perception of what,The 2 individuals or the methods.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!doh!

Bio
It's all right Doh.....Ing if you read my post i started by saying that i owed a lot to Guest and Fulham,To which johnd replied Perception.Hence my question,Obviously you have just joined the gang,Ah well good luck to ya!

Not exactly OED, but its means an ability to see through most of the crap.