A piece of friendly advice, ignore Fulham. He has something to prove.

Fulham,

if you are of the opinion that lady bears recent form was better than dumaran's, as guest implied, then perhaps a nudge in the right direction is in order?

Biotechnology

I entirely agree with you that it would be "absolute nonsense" to describe Dumaran's run on Saturday as a "good" one. But let's be clear, no one on this thread is saying that. Rather, it is merely being argued that what was certainly a "below par" performance (as the Post described it) may not have been as bad as some initial comments suggested.


Barney

Would you doubt which horse had the better recent form something, if memory serves, Biotechnology, by his reference to the Roushayd example, was inclined to accept in his response to Guest.

No,

but perhaps it would be more constructive if this aspect was explored further, the chap said he's lost money on it, and it just looks like keep kicking him in the goolies to me.

Usually discussion is concentrated on why a horse won this that or the other race.

Determined

On first look I have the 3.15 as a match between Interceptor and Tug of Love.

I think tomorrow is the day for Zonergem, but may make a book with Rafferty

AROWSON,

Zonergem - the 3.15 is taking me forever to look at so I doubt if I wll have the time to study this race.

`Z` having run in the Spring Cup and Jubilee h`cap should find tomorrow`s race opposition wise that bit easier. Drawn 1 would be a nightmare draw for most but given `Z` way of running it will suit.

I have 2 ways of looking at his run tomorrow, ie - if the prize is not wanted ( Hunt Cup maybe the plan ? ) then he has the right course, etc to be "unlucky in running". On the other hand, if tomorrow is the day then he`s going to need the gaps to open at the right time.

Add to that, if the going becomes soft with all this rain about will it suit.

I will not be putting any monies on `Z` tomorrow but the very best of luck should your final decision be to play.

Arowson,

With regards the 3.15, at this stage the 2 you mention I agree have to be on the shortlist.

Both are consistent, well placed in the f/c and on the time/merit check and both will certainly improve over the trip and will act on the going should it become on the soft side.

Of the 2 I believe Interceptor `s form is the better and he is preferred at this stage.

That said, I have a `hunch` should the ground become testing that one of the bigger priced horses may spring a surprise.

Barney
Cheers for the support m8, but I honestly dont feel like my b*llocks are being kicked,I really am enjoying this debate, and I think as you say further exploration would be welcomed.Lady Bear was in arguably better form as it was placed in a much weaker race than Dumarans two previous unplaced runs hanging badly and running on at one pace.I can remember seeing Dumaran win a race by 4L in soft showing a really good turn of foot,and the press were all saying he was one to follow.
There's questions that need to be answered,
(A) Did A balding send up the best horse in the race to lose or win.
(B)If it was trying to win how many pounds would it have gone up and how much damage would have been done to his mark as a £9000 race would have been the lowest amount of prizemoney he's won in a race I believe.
(c) where was the turn of speed or even the ability to lie up with the pace if it was so slow, as 4f out he was being pushed along to go the pace with horses(Lady Bear excepted) who wouldent have got him off the bridle last year,does he need a strong gallop?.
I really could not give a toss about the money now as I know if I put as much time and effort into a race again where I think there is a winner in the race I will come out on top.As I said on saturday-I only strike 10-12 bigger bets a season(Flat) and I had a large one on Moon Ballad(£500 @ 11/4) & a decent one on Refuse To Bend(£100 @ 4/1) and of course £200 on Dumaran, any other bets I strike are only fivers or the odd tenner, or maybe a patent/trio with £1/£2 stakes.If I really fancy one again I will have no difficulty in giving my reasons into why think it will win.I am not the type of guy to hide away and sulk.By and large I really enjoy this forum and we have some decent dudes with a sound knowledge of the game.Im still up for the season and expect that to be the case at the end of the season as it has been 6 years out of seven.

Bio,

Your big bets are too small. We deal in £1000`s on here not £500`s.


HA HA HA !

BioT,

Great posts,both before and after the event.It's nice to see you standing your ground after an adverse result and falling back for confidence on plenty of previous data.

More power to your elbow,I say.

Determined:
They are big for me LOL
I hope my missus never finds out about these posts-anyone know how to lock the forum?LOL

Determined

I can see what you mean about the likelihood of the prize not being big enough for Zonergem, but if he is to win the Royal Hunt Cup he should be able to beat this field easily.

Given the uncertainty of the going conditions I doubt very much that I will bet tomorrow on anything other than Bowing in the Goodwood 5.30

Dumaran,

I have been looking at my notes for this horse, and I notice I have suggested not suited by right handed courses with a stiff finish. Likes flat or down hill, left or right. This will have been gleaned from s/f. Very seldom use Hamilton form so had to look up the course characteristics, right handed stiff finish. I don't know if this is the reason but it may be worth thinking about. The travelling mentioned by Determined may also be a factor. I would have thought York would have suited.

Be Lucky

About your races; I think the problem for analysis on the 18th of January is to do with race type/distance, I dont think chases over short distances are reliable, your other three jumps races look sensible from that angle but I personally wouldn't bother with such large fields. Of the flat races May the 5th is the only one that I wouldn't reject on field/distance. Perhaps you'd find it interesting to consult your records with this in mind. I have also looked at your selections to see if I thought they were worth consideration as bets, as these races have so many runners I haven't checked the opposition to decide if any would actually have been, in my opinion Spirit Leader in it's first race was worth a look, Youllneverwalkalone looked good but I'm suspicious that all it's wins were in Ireland, Bonus looks the most inspiring but apart from the field/distance I also find the age a problem.

Epiglotis

Thanks.

Impossible to be sure, of course, but I am inclined to think 2m may have been on the short side for Fondmort on 18 Feb. He had won over 2m several times but his previous 2 races were over 2m 5, and reverting may not have suited.

Given the sort of races I principally analyse, field size is usually well into double figures, but in these more valuable handicaps a lot can usually readily be ruled out as not form horses from a VDW perspective. That doesn't stop some winning of course, but overall I think the figure Guest has quoted (70% of all races won by form horses) is about right for this subset.

As to distance, VDW gave very few examples in sprints and this suggests that these may not in the main be good betting opportunities. Possibly coincidentally, my success rate seems lower in these, especially in 5f races, than at other distances.

Today all the handicaps are happily middle-distance and, with one exception, fields of between 10 and 13.

WHERE ARE YOU NESSIE?

I thought you would have posted some of your tables today,maybe the 2.40 G/W or the 3.30 BEV.As a matter of interest what gets the 100%? I will hazzard a guess on ZONERGEM followed by RAFFERTY which incidently are my two, arrived at a different way i hasten to add.
For anyone who has an interest in this race did you know the last eight runnings were won by a gelding and all were distance winners,so as RAFFERTY is a colt could that be the kiss of death for it?
In the 3.30 BEV two horses stand out PILAU TIOMAN and TOUGH LOVE.Only one horse since 95 has won from the top half of the draw (Riberac 01)but today I slightly favour the top weight even though an infrequent visitor these days to the winners enclosure it has been dropped in class today to collect I think,come race time i will decide to either back it on its own or dutch the pair.Which ever runner does carry your cash make sure its a distance winner at least because it counts for a great deal here.

Max

The draw back with Zonergem is that he needs things to go his own way, winning easily on his day, but more often than not disappointing. In the case of this race his poor draw might be a bit of a help as he can be settled in the rear, but unless there is a very fast pace he's going to have an awful job coming from the back in this event. Rafferty probably has the strongest call of anything in the race, but it was one event that I didn't have much trouble dismissing.

Zonergem does not strike me as the sort of horse VDW would have been betting on.

Rob

ROB
Thank-You for your comments but I am not placing that much emphasis on the draw today the last five runnings of this race have seen the winner come from a lowish draw three times
OMAHA CITY drawn 7 of 15,PERSIANO drawn 5 of 16 and CHINA RED drawn 4 of 12.

Hi MAx . I know this is before the race but I
think it is useful.

I have added sp lto and size of filed
after thinkuig about it and also a scoreing for
distance/wins etc and over all abilty.
I can see why VDW was so selectve the more you
look the clouder it gets.

  GOODWOOD, 20 May 2003, 2:40, Newton Investment Management Stakes (Handicap) (Class C) (4yo+,0-100),Winner £10,660.00,1m GOOD, 19 Runners Handicap

 Zonergem,.......................................................Form 13-6-4  (20)  sp lto 6/1  Av = 36.3k** , Ab = 19k**   Score=4+2
 33%  102B 8f 4/3 16rs  GF Kem  17K    (15 days)**    (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 17K to 10.7k,  No improv
 46%  103B 8f 6/4 25rs  GF Nby  23K    (38 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
 121%  90B 9f 13/7 30rs  Fm Nmk  69K    (227 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (100%)
 Muchea,.......................................................Form 12-3-28  (23)  sp lto 33/1  Av = 34.3k** , Ab = 11.5k**   Score=6+2
 100%  74B 9f 28/20 30rs  Fm Nmk  69K    (227 days)     (Chk Dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 69K to 10.7k,  CHK for improv
 21%  101B 8f 3/2 6rs  GF Goo  11K    (236 days)(c)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 44%  99C 8f 12/5 19rs**  Gd Ayr  23K    (241 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (83%)
 Rafferty,.......................................................Form 3-9-3  (15**)  sp lto 7/2F  Av = 29k** , Ab = 7k  Score=4+3
 19%  101C 7f 3/¾L 16rs  GF Chs  10K    (12 days)**      (Chk Dist PLACED **)    Same class 10K, BUT chk figures
 114%  90B 8f 9/6 24rs  Gd Don  65K    (59 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 23%  101B 7f 3/1 14rs  St Lin  12K    (66 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (78%)
 Finished Article,.......................................................Form 19-18-6  (26)  sp lto 25/1  Av = 33.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+2
 21%  93B 10f 6/3 13rs  Gd Nmk  12K    (17 days)** (g)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 12K to 10.7k,  No improv
 34%  76B 8f 18/12 25rs  GF Nby  23K    (38 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 84%  66B 8f 19/18 24rs  Gd Don  65K    (59 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (69%) 

And then we have another hard race

  BEVERLEY, 20 May 2003, 3:30, sportingoptions.co.uk Back Or Lay Rated Stakes (Class C) (Handicap) (3yo+,0-95),Winner £8,595.01,(1m100y)1m½f GOOD, 10 Runners Handicap

 Pulau Tioman,.......................................................Form 6-8-7  (21)  sp lto 16/1  Av = 37.3k** , Ab = 43k**   Score=5+3
 93%  95B 8f 7/6 16rs  GF Kem  17K    (15 days)**    (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 17K to 8.6k, BUT chk figures
 374%  99B 8f 8/6 24rs  Gd Don  65K    (59 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)
 148%  85A 8f 6/13 6rs  GF Don  30K    (250 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (100%)
 Temple Of Artemis,.......................................................Form 15-6-7  (23)  sp lto 33/1  Av = 147.3k** , Ab = 7k  Score=4+1
 37%  64C 16f 7/24 7rs  Fm Thi  10K    (10 days)**   (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 10K to 8.6k, BUT chk figures
 237%  87x 8f 6/13 6rs  Hy Cur  47K    (311 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 0%  01x 12f 15/59 15rs  Gd Cha  385K    (352 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (44%)
 Atlantic Ace,.......................................................Form 6-12-8  (24)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 14.3k** , Ab = 9k**   Score=7+2
 100%  86A 7f 8/7 11rs**  GF Yor  20K    (6 days)**      (Chk Dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 20K to 8.6k  IMPROVING ***
 65%  81C 8f 12/10 17rs  Gd Thi  14K    (17 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)
 46%  88C 8f 6/7 18rs  GF Pon  9K    (42 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (34%)
 Hurricane Floyd,.......................................................Form 3-8-7  (18)  sp lto 5/1F  Av = 13.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+3
 40%  69C 7f 7/14 16rs  Gd Thi  10K    (17 days)** (g)     (Chk Dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 10K to 8.6k,  No improv
 68%  90C 8f 8/5 17rs  Gd San  13K    (24 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 91%  93B 8f 3/1 24rs  Gd Don  17K    (60 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (32%)
 Pie High,.......................................................Form 8-4-23  (22)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 12.7k** , Ab = 4.5k  Score=4+1
 34%  65C 7f 23/13 30rs  Gd Nmk  9K    (214 days)(g)     (Chk Dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 9K to 8.6k,  No improv
 58%  91B 7f 4/3 14rs  GF Nmk  11K    (229 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 75%  72x 8f 8/9 10rs**  Sft Col  18K    (240 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (26%)
 Eastern Hope,.......................................................Form 6-5-13  (21)  sp lto 16/1  Av = 12k** , Ab = 5k  Score=3+1
 23%  50C 8f 13/17 13rs  GF Asc  8K    (296 days)   (** DIST  lengths)    Same class 8K,  No improv
 37%  80D 7f 5/4 8rs  Gd Bev  8K    (308 days)(g)(c)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 93%  80C 7f 6/4 14rs  GS San  20K    (319 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (24%)
 Tough Love,.......................................................Form 4-1-3  (8**)  sp lto 7/1  Av = 10k** , Ab = 8k  Score=6+5
 70%  86C 8f 3/2 17rs  Gd Thi  14K    (17 days)** (g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 14K to 8.6k  IMPROVING ***
 45%  86C 8f 1/nk 18rs  GF Pon  9K    (42 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 30%  74D 7f 4/5 17rs  Gd Lei  7K    (338 days)(g)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (23%) 

[This message was edited by Nessie on May 20, 2003 at 02:38 PM.]

nessie,

do you get a 100% horse in every race?