I've been in touch with Kerry and he's okayed the tablut article with brainking rules.

Epi
You really are a sad individual LOL,For goodness sake stay in japan we,ve got enough t...s here without you coming home.

Lena Lovich?

Epi
don't be silly.

Ameisensou

wrong thread Epi

Waiting for your translation on this one.

Fulham
I'm sorry but he's never a full shilling is he.

VDW?

As I'm a compulsive philosopher I will probably look at those races in any case but I've just seen the dedicated Derby thread that has come into existence on the VDW forum, it's difficult to find a suitable way ......................

Grundy,

I can only assume no one else looked at the race. I wouldn't back a horse of this low class, or in a race of this class. However on looking at it Czarina Waltz, for me was the BEST HORSE in the race. She is consistent, the handicapper must think she is improving to put her up 5lbs for her last run. If the race had been of better class I still wouldn't have backed her, as her only win was on the a/w.

Not a bet (or race for me).

Be Lucky

The theory that Dumaran needs soft ground to show her best is brought into question by her Lincoln run, where she ran to within 1lb of her best ever postmark, in the most valuable race she has ever contested.
Given that the going for Saturday's race were bordering on soft by the time of the race, a more reasonable explanation for her 11l defeat may have been the slow pace in the race, and the race readers comments would support this view.
Whatever the reason, Saturday's performance would rank as her worst for some time,

Johnd

I think it is common ground that Dumaran's run on Saturday was "below par", and arguably worse than that.

But the real issue is whether there was any basis, from a VDW perspective or any other, for believing that, under the conditions prevailing on Saturday, Dumaran had a realistic chance of beating Lady Bear.

Dumaran's Lincoln run was OK, but let's not get carried away, he was beaten nearly 5l by a comparably Officially Rated horse, despite the fact that he was actually carrying 5lb less due to the apprentice's claim. Next time out was, in my view (and, I note, Postmark's) something of a downturn in form (with a huge change in the wrong direction vis-s-vis Dumaran if assessed through Lingo, who of course also ran in the Lincoln).

While I can see why Guest made Dumaran a form horse in the context of Saturday's race, I have to say I took a different view. But it was clear from his post that Guest no more expected Dumaran to win that I did, and I have set out the grounds which led me to believe that LB prevailing by 6-9 lengths was the expected result.

The evidence suggests that, like a few other horses, eg Mini Sensation, Dumaran performs at his best on very specific going conditions. Those on Saturday may have been approaching those conditions, but that is all they were - approaching them: they weren't actually the ideal conditions.

Fulham

I had expected Lady Bear to win more easily until I looked at the draw. In retrospect i think this was a decent performance by Lady Bear as she was drawn right on the outside in stall 1, which is a big disadvantage over 8.3f at Hamilton due to the proximity of the first bend. A further mark of the effect of the draw on this race is that the next three home were drawn 12,11 and 8 of the 12 runners. The conditions suited Lady Bear and the fact that she had to work hard to win it is another suggestion that there was a disadvantage.
Dumaran was next home of the lower half of the draw finishing fifth from draw 5.

There aren't that many courses and distances where I would worry about the draw but this distance at Hamilton is one of them. Windsor's Im 67y is much the same as are Beverley's high number advantages over 7f 100y and 1m 100y and the much mentioned 5f. I wouldn't anything drawn drawn in double figures at Chester over any distance.

I know that some posters on here don't consider the draw particularly significant, but on occasions I think it is very important.

Rob

Rob,

I agree that the draw can be significant, and like you prefer low draws at Chester (and indeed high draws in the 5fs at Beverley). I hadn't appreciated that the draw might be significant in Saturday's Hamilton race, but accepting your assessment it presumably follows that not only Lady Bear, but also perhaps Dumaran, ran better than might at first sight be apparent.Thanks for drawing that to attention: it may well have implications for assessing prospects when Dumaran runs next.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Fulham:
Rob,

I agree that the draw can be significant, and like you prefer low draws at Chester (and indeed high draws in the 5fs at Beverley). I hadn't appreciated that the draw might be significant in Saturday's Hamilton race, but accepting your assessment it presumably follows that not only Lady Bear, but also perhaps Dumaran, ran better than might at first sight be apparent.Thanks for drawing that to attention: it may well have implications for assessing prospects when Dumaran runs next.

---

Fulham
There can be any number of reasons why a horse does not run his/her race.On Saturday Dumaran travelled a long way for a C class race,£20.000 less than its won as recently as 10 Months ago,the horse ran well in the Lincoln regardless of what anyone says.Go on to the Racing Post website type in the name and read the form-you will see at the bottom trainers quotes-the Epsom race was run on going not suitable & over a trip that was too far, Dumaran was bang there at the furlong pole and faded to finish only 3 lengths behind Lingo allbeat in 8th place.Ill tell you what I bet the connections of this horse dont think it ran a good race on Saturday, and will be on to Mr.Balding at the reasons behind the bad run.My m8's brother is a bookie at Hamilton and he took several hundred pounds on Dumaran,9/2 was available at one time but the horse was forced down to 7/2 then 4/1 as there was money for several longer priced animals.Lady Bear was also drifting from evs to 6/4.I lost a few quid on it on Sat but no way did it run a good race against the calibre of horses it was in against.The horse likes undulating tracks-Hamilton-likes bends-Hamilton-likes soft going-Hamilton why if you want to drop it in the H'cap would you drop it in class and run it in conditions that are suitable as well as all the costs involved.Transport rates can be up to 25p per mile.Did Balding have any other runners on Fri/Sat?,I dont know but if he didnt its a long way to bring a horse to lose.
One to note from the race was Football Crazy who wont be long in returning to the winners enclosure.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Fulham:
Rob,

I agree that the draw can be significant, and like you prefer low draws at Chester (and indeed high draws in the 5fs at Beverley). I hadn't appreciated that the draw might be significant in Saturday's Hamilton race, but accepting your assessment it presumably follows that not only Lady Bear, but also perhaps Dumaran, ran better than might at first sight be apparent.Thanks for drawing that to attention:

Biotechnology

Two things are beyond all dispute. First, every week numerous horses are sent long distances and lose. Second, every day bookmakers take hundreds of pounds on horses that lose. In both those regards Dumaran on Saturday was wholly unremarkable.

Excuse my last post as it was a mistake.
NOTE:
A Balding took Dumaran a round trip of 832 mls
and he was the only horse in the box.
At around £4.00 per gallon of fuel and 11mpg it took around 75 gallons to transport this horse + drivers wages, assistants wages, entry fee for race, jockey fee, new set of racing plates when a run over 1m 1/4/1m+1/2 at Newbury
would have seen his mark drop why oh why oh why, now I lost money and I can accept that but people coming on & saying to be beaten nearly 12 lengths was a good run is absolute nonsense.If you look at his form he admittedly won a fairly weak race for the money at Epsom but he won much stronger races again using good tactical speed and a turn of foot to win good races better than the event he ran in on Saturday.,beating Champion Lodge,I cried for you,Lord Protector.The horse is considered by the stable to be good enough to run in the Hunt Cup & Golden Mile.Its a mystery.

Dumaran,

I do not want to dwell on this subject for much longer but one other thought springs to mind, ie - some horses just do not travel well.

Looking at `D` career, he has travelled the very very long journey to Scotland only twice and both times he hasn`t run well.

ALL,

The 3.15 Gdwd tomorrow looks a very interesting race. Many unexposed types who having been waiting for the easier ground and will be suited by the step up in trip.

All are up in class (value) and several are unproven with the weight so identifying the class/form horses maybe a task in itself.

Any comments ?????