Walter pigeon
it would appear tha a majority of Nessies top rated horses are top on the average ability,That's taking there last 3 runs i.e 10 grand 5 grand 8 grand divided by 3 =7.6 k that's the average but i would agree there seem to be inconsistencies in other parts.Having said that it would appear to have some positive attributes,I just wish i could understand it all.

Investor you may call me Walter.

Walter
very kind of you sir.

Nessie,
When you cut and paste the form in to your tables, do you have a formula set up which automatically does your % ratings, I can work out how all the %s are calculated but it takes a lot of time per race, Or is there an easy way of working them out.

Either way, Keep posting your ratings, I find them very interesting.

Ginger

Guest
I hope i'm not being presumptious,But i feel you would have gone against one of the c/f's you put up today,And maybe you would have backed Hawk wing I personally couldn't see any other ption but to make a book,I apologise for speaking to you in this context,But i remember saying to an acquaintance of mine a while ago that racing or more to the point punting on a regular basis or for a living can be a lonely affair at times,And often the folks that you want to understand you can't and those that do understand don't take any notice,Anyway enough of my ramblings,I'm pretty sure you had a good day today keep on posting.

Investor - Just to clarify, I backed one horse today and it was indeed Hawkwing. Even Terry Mills can't get out of his pram on todays result.

Remember the advice about "good things" coming unstuck and taking a holiday. They have a habit of coming back totally refreshed and ready for business.

See you all Derby day.

Guest
Thanks for the reply,You seem very confident about the Derby this year i'm sure i speak on behalf of most on this thread,We'll be looking forward to your evaluation on the day.

"THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY REMAIN THE SAME".

BIO
Don't get dispirited; as Walter said, the horse obviously didn't run his race. If only others had your balls, this thread might get somewhere.

Nessie,

At last I see the light - the brains don't tick so fast for some of us old folks nowadays! Don't be surprised if it all goes pear shaped now, as that's usually what happens to anything I try, as with Mtoto's Sainte Alebe. Many thanks for your input though, which does make some sense though on a thread where you often need a master's degree in astrology to understand what's being said.


Oldtimer

4.05 Hamilton, 17 May

Like Determined and Investor, I'm always glad when Guest names a c/f, as it offers a benchmark against which one can check one's own evaluations. I wonder though whether, with regard to the 4.05 Hamilton yesterday, Guest was perhaps a shade over-forgiving in respect of Dumaran's last run which I saw as disappointing in the context of the previous two.

As regards issues of capability, while he has won on good, and good to soft, Dumaran seems to need exactly the right going - soft - to run to his best now he has risen in the relative weights.

On the flat Dumaran has run five times on good/soft, winning only the first, off a mark of 77. Since then, whether dropped or raised in class, he has yet to make the frame.

By contrast, on soft, Dumaran has run four times. In the first, as a 3yo, he ran down the field in a class 67. But his 4yo form on soft was impressive:

7/6/02 - class 290 handicap - won;
10/8/02 - class 226 handicap - 2nd, short head;
26/10/02 - class 166 handicap - won.

That last win was off a mark of 91, and he was raised to 97 as a result. Since then he has dropped a couple of pounds. He will be of interest when next running on soft in a handicap of appropriate class, particularly if in the meantime he has another run or two on going he seems to handle less effectively.

4.05 Hamilton,

I like Fulham had to seriously question Dumarann`s in formness yesterday. If I`m honest I was going to have a decent bet on Lady Bear until I saw all the positive comments re` Dumarann.

ONLY MYSELF TO BLAME & YET ANOTHER WINNER MISSED BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY ANOTHER LESSON LEARNT.

Dumaran - why send a horse all this way to run such a bad race ????

Its easy after the event but in my opinion its one way to ensure the h`capper relents a little, ie - the valuable Epsom h`cap he won in June last year could well be the target ( ground permitting ).

There maybe other races nearer home to run the horse in prior to Epsom with a view to reducing his mark but they will be to close, ie - running him this weekend allows approx` 20 days to freshen him up.

He`ll be ready to run his race on a track that suits hopefully on easier ground and with a few lbs off his back.

In short, as Fulham has shown above, this horse has a clear pattern ( conditions that suit ) and all his runs in other conditions are an illusion ????

**** Bio, if reading this post I hope it doesn`t feel as though I`m trying to question your bet yesterday. That is definately not the case and I for one am pleased to see you been so positive which I`m sure will stand you in good stead with your future investments ****



ALL,

Nobody consider MR ED yesterday ?

Determined

You say why send a horse (Dumaran) such a long way to run such a bad race, and others have suggested that his placing yesterday was because he did not run his race.

But there is another interpretation. Here was a horse, not in the best of form (as judged by his last run), running on ground that also was not his preferred (having seemingly shown last year a distinct preference for soft), against in Lady Bear a clear form horse, and on less favourable terms with LB than had the race been a handicap. Maybe Dumaran was beaten by further than might have been expected (though if you look at D's previous three Flat runs on g/s maybe not): but not I would have thought so adrift from realistic expectations to be classed as "such a bad race". The Post's comment of "below-par" seems about right to me.

Determined

Do you really think that A Balding is preparing Dumarun
for a top class race at Epsom bang out of form and with
form figures of 000?

Mister Ed,

I cannot argue that form figures of 000 do not really look like those of a horse ready to win a £29k race.

VDW would be pulling his hair out especially given the terrible stats for the said form figures.

Come the day at Epsom if Dumaran turns up without another run then even if top on ability he`s bound to be classed as out of form.

That said, Funfare Wane`s last 2 runs prior to his win last week didn`t really give the impression he was ready to win. Dubian Gift`s form figures hardly set the world alight either.

These types do win but of course not as frequently as CONSISTENT horses.

**** one other point re` Dumaran - the stable like several top stables are not firing yet ****

Staying with the form figures 000 - looking back at some of my old bets people on here would wonder where the hell I got them from but believe me they are out there. It is the losing runs that I couldn`t cope with hence my change to VDW.

Fulham,

Travelling along way - if a trainer is trying to prove a point to the h`capper he`ll do everything he can.

How many top class h`cappers down the years travel up north to acquire the right h`cap mark.

I concede that in Dumaran`s case yesterday he just didn`t run his race.

Lets hope Bio is on when `D` delivers and at a good price.

Fulham/ Determined
With all due respect to bio,And as far as i'm concerned and also from the way i percieve form the vdw way,There is no way Dumaran should have been supported yesterday given the recent form of Lady Bear.

Determined
It is the facts that were evident in the form book prior to the horses going to post,Not what others say.If i listened to everything that others said i wouldn't step out of the house.

Determined


If we take the Official Handicapper's ratings for Lady Bear and Dumaran, both very well exposed horses, as a point of departure, had both been in top form and with suitable conditions yesterday one might have expected Lady Bear to prevail by up to 3 lengths (it is never easy to know what allowance to make for the apprentice weight deduction versus the loss of a more experienced and arguably better jockey).

I think we agree that Lady Bear was coming to the race in more or less top form, whereas Dumaran certainly wasn't, so one would expect the difference to be significantly more than the aforementioned 3l: perhaps double?

In addition, I would argue, on the basis of the facts set out in my earliest post on the race, that while Lady Bear had ground to suit, Dumaran did not (contrary to the comment in today's Post) have his ground - suggestive to me of a difference of a further couple of lengths or more, given that Dumaran's very best performances have all been on soft.

That Lady Bear would therefore beat Dumaran at yesterday's weights and on yesterday's going by 6-9 lengths is thus surely no surprise. The fact that the actual distance beaten was a few lengths more suggests to me an "under par" performance, but not a very bad one. If he didn't "run his race", one would be applying a standard of judgement that would, I suggest, lead to the conclusion that many horses don't run their races much of the time.


Investor

As you say, the facts were all there prior to the race. In the light of them, as Guest intimated before the "off", to back Dumaran was a bold call.


Mr Ed

Obviously a lot will depend on the class of the race (in both usual VDW senses) in which Dumaran is next pitched, but the fact that he has now run two rather disappointing races would not necessarily put me off backing him next time out, provided of course the going was soft. The two runs prior to his win on 26 October last were hardly encouraging from a standard VDW perspective.

Fulham,

Excellent appraisel of yesterday`s race and I agree with everything you say.

Investor,

Prior to joining this thread I never doubted my ability to find plenty of winners but plenty of losers as well.

I have always being confident in the decisions I made rightly or wrongly and was always prepared to stand by them.

On many occasions ( not so much now ) I was also in receipt of some brilliant info` ( R.Akehurst`s h`cap king days ) yet if I had an opinion against the info` I would also stick to my guns.

It has only since joining this thread that I have found myself doubting my ability and yes if I`m honest it has cost me money but it is a price worth paying because in the long term it will pay substantial dividends.

Time permitting I will make this game pay. It has always been my ambition to support my hard earned income via betting and that day will come.

I make money now but not have as much I believe I`ll one day be capable of.

Nessie

You have been very clever and very nearly had me going.
I am surprised Epiglotis or JIB have not posted something similar after catching on.
It is very significant some of the more advanced VDW'ers have not commented on your wonderful posts and it was only after putting up a search of all your posts that it dawned on me.
It was good idea but you left yourself wide open after the Duke of York race example (post 3.22pm 13th may-page 504)
A nice little finishing touch,using the mythical Scotish figure.
You have made my day and at least now i know i am not going mad.

Guest,

This is not a criticism but could you (or anyone else) please explain how Hawk Wing was a form horse? I had him as the class horse. Even if I was prepared to forgive his last run, what about his defeat by Where Or When? I also find the fact you made Dumaran the c/form over Lady Bear slightly strange. I suppose as D ran a fairly good race with the conditions against him it could be argued he was in form. I had LB the BEST HORSE and the only thing against was the price.

Nessie.

Could I ask have you worked your ratings against the old examples? If so how did it perform? Sorry about asking this I still can't work them out. Also you are now using the Postmark figure, what figure would you have used on the old examples? For some reason I can't cut and paste from the board, is anyone else having this problem?

Anyone,

This has nothing to do with VDW. I wanted to back Swing Wing for a place only. The tote price was appalling. Did anyone notice what the place price was on the exchanges? I had to back e/w but couldn't find a bookie to take more on the place than the win.

Be Lucky