READ AND UNDERSTAND

After looking once again at the Needwood Blade race,I read and understood,or tried to.My analysis using the same method as presented in the Pegwell Bay exercise,led me to the same conclusion as Investor/Guest and Mtoto.

Bishops Court was not even possible.That left three possibles.Vision of Night,showed a downturn in form after Ascot,on each subsequent run.NB and SB could not be separated on all logical form reading.Nothing else was possible,from the field.It was an easier conclusion,than I thought initially,and a lot depends on one's approach of looking at a race.

I would be interested in some feedback on this race.

I noticed a lot of big wagers on Pablo the Lincoln winner yesterday,I bet vdw would have chuckled at this.

If possible,and if I'm able to,I will post up my opinion of one vdw type pre race,within the next seven days

Three Legs - Things are not always as they seem are they?

Pipedreamer - Needwood Blade and Smokin Beau, in addition to the form book evidence, were both expected to improve for their first run. NB had winning form at the level on the same track, whilst Smokin Beau had run well at HQ without delivering. Nothing to split them though as you say and worth covering all bases with both horses. SB obviously had a problem to run so badly.

guest,investor,pipedreamer,all...was needwood blade a qualifier in his previous race at doncaster?...

statajack...could i ask you some questions in your evaluation of ryalaux,in the scottish grand national,.

Guest, my sentiments exactly.

Grundy,

I had exactly the same problems with those horse at Doncaster, I couldn't split them. I can't speak for Guest and Investor, but for me it was a race to leave alone.

Rob,

Have to admit I did have a look at Midnight Gunner at Cheltenham. He failed on my ability rating. He was the only consistent horse in the race, and that seems to be a dirty word around here at the moment. If you backed him well done, it just goes to show you don't have to spend hours looking for the hidden form.

Be Lucky

grundy/mtoto
Having looked back over the last time that needwood blade /smokin beau met,I remember at the time coming to the conclusion that one of them would win,What a mistaker to maker.it was quite evident and i remember determined saying that red carpet posed a threat,And of course it did which was evident before the race,but it's all about learning and in my opinion the race should have been left.

When the 2 horses met the other day,it was a different story altogether needwwood blade was always going to run a better race,Which was evident in the form,But Smokin beau had to be respected and of course there wasn't a red carpet in the race.

Rosebery H`cap

I have the top 2 on ability namely Solo Flight and Salute as out of form.

3rd rated Adeimus is a form horse and is therefore 1st on class/form.

At this early stage `A` is receiving alot of pluses with regards the numerical picture.

Any comments ?

IT owes me a ****ing fortune this horse,

I am doing retrieval on it untill i get my money back

Barney,

I`ve spent a great deal of time on this race and having reminded myself of what VDW said at the end of his Pegwell Bay article

CLASS & CONSISTENT FORM ARE VITAL FACTORS

I`m happy to highlight Adeimus as a VDW bet today however

his draw ( in view of the way he runs ) and the fact that he`s going right handed today cause me slight concern.

The available 7/1 which I cannot believe covers those 2 factors.

Good luck,

Caution,

This Barolo judging by the comments on The Morning Line looks a major plot horse.

Determined

Adiemus, i don't like the draw or the track either. A high draw is good if you are a front runner

What do you think about Goblet of Fire

Andrew,

Goblet Of Fire in my opinion is 2nd on class/form and is a danger to `A`.

In regards to Adiemus.

I hope no one minds me poking my nose in here, but I feel that the following quote from D.Holland should be pointed out after his race at Windsor:

"He wasn't the easiest of rides, as he was going both left and right, and I was doing my best to keep him straight." - D Holland.

He remains to prove himself on this kind of track, I for one will be waiting for another day.

Psst. Got a minute guv? Wanna buy a Horse Racing system. Know what I mean, know what I mean?.

[This message was edited by raffingora on April 19, 2003 at 01:07 PM.]

Hello
Raffingora,
Welcome to the board.
Have you ever seen the t.v. programme "CATCHPHRASE"?
WANNABE likes it as well.
Well I can't stand it!!!!!!!!!
Cheers
Swish

WHEN I HEAR CATCHPHRASES I FEEL LIKE SURRENDERING AND BUYING SYSTEMS.

Now old members have gone and new members have arrived I would like to re-print an old letter I wrote to see what anyone has to say about it:

Dear All,
As a lot of you know I totally agree with some things vdw said and disagree with others.
Anyhow I think you will all enjoy reading this. It is taken from MARTIN PIPES biography, published 1992.
Bob Hawkins is a professional gambler who made his entire income betting. Back in 1975 he started betting with David Pipe who was a bookie (Martin Pipe’s father),
In the same day Hawkins backed a 33-1 winner and a 25-1 winner. D. Pipe could not afford to pay him out there and then so offered to pay by cheque. Whilst the cheque was being sorted they got talking and Hawkins admitted that his winners were not whims or fancies, but obtained by hard study of the form book. Pipe’s dad realised no one would put that sort of money on big long shots so a long conversation ensued, and Pipe asked Hawkins if he would be interested in helping his young trainer son, Martin.
From this Hawkins joined Martin Pipe and became his chief advisor, even telling him whether or not to buy certain winners of sellers. Hawkins would weigh up future opposition and tell Pipe where to run his horses to advantage. (CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT A COMBINATION THIS WAS? WE ALL TRY AND SEE OR GUESS WHAT THE TRAINERS IS UP TO. IN THIS CASE THE PUNTER WAS TELLING THE TRAINER WHAT TO DO SO EVERY TIME THE PUNTER KNEW EXACTLY WHAT THE TRAINER WAS UPTO!!!!!!!!!!! YOU CAN’T HAVE A BIGGER ADVANTAGE).
Any way they would deliberately run horses over wrong distances and going in higher class races. He writes about a horse called Mayumbe, in 1976, after several runs.

“Another outing at Ascot over half a mile less saw Ron Atkins back on board for a fair fourth behind the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Master Smudge, confirming yet again the horse’s proper mark. Once established, the pattern is glaringly obvious. A huge drop in class, back to the right distance and our money slowly spread out amongst the bookies at lowly Plumpton on his next start and our plans were smoothly executed once again.”

A classic example of what VDW said about seeing the WINNER IN THE RACE!

Now amongst the many other things Hawkins says he says the following, which appears to me to contradict what VDW said about seeing how horses finished over the last 2 furlongs.

“An inherent danger to racegoers looking for future winners is the false impression gained when noting fast-finishing placed horses. Often they are running through beaten rivals, benefited from educational tactics or were only put into the race after the principals had flown. Many horses look impressive in those circumstances, then are found lacking on their next outing when asked to get into the thick of things”

This book is a great read and would say to EVERY punter to try and read every racing biography they can, especially by the bookies and trainers themselves.
Well I hope you enjoyed reading that and no doubt it may arouse some questions and controversy,
Yours,
Swish

All,

Was NO TIME a selection for anybody yesterday.

The numerical picture showed him up very well but I took the view that Bond Becks and The Bonus King were too dangerous hence = no bet for me.

I played in one race yesterday backing what I thought were 1st and 2nd on class/form namely Adiemus and Goblet Of Fire.

All those who suggested Adiemus had factors against were clearly right.

BARNEY,

Adiemus maybe placed to win a decent h`cap but I`m not convinced the horse is in love with the game.

On reflection,

Judging by the comments made by the experts it was a good week for VDW,

Needwood Blade / Smokin Beau
Olden Times
Poliantes / Fondmort
Bal De Nuit
Midnight Gunner

I envy you !

Swish,

I bought the Pipe book on your recommendation approx` a year ago but as yet I have only flirted with it.

Going to Lanzarote for 10 days next weekend ( miss 8 days televised racing including the Guinneas meeting ) to celebrate the big 40.

I`ll take the book with me and have a good read,

Cheers

Swish.

I recall the Pipe/Hawkins combination very well indeed.

A cold February winters day at a smallish meeting somewhere in the South of England, nothing of any significance running, and no valuable races.

A handicap race worth no more than £700 with a Pipe runner, it opened the 5/2 fav, but not D.Pipe, he went 11/4 and of course took as much money as he could at this price, when the ring made it 11/4, he proceded to make it 3/1 and took even more money, the same thing happened until it was 5/1 generally. The horse went on to win the race by the preverbial, and Pipe's joint had the longest queue. He was laughing and joking all the time, happy to be paying out on a winner that the Pipe/Hawkins combination had backed elsewhere at...............SP.

Some would say that the ethics of this are wrong, but thats racing, ethics do not pay the trainers fees who in turn pay the hard working stable staff. Prize money would never be able to sustain all the outgoings for a trainer or an owner.

Psst. Got a minute guv? Wanna buy a Horse Racing system. Know what I mean, know what I mean?.

Tis all downhill from now on