Epiglotis

re Meelup

Competing in a 3yo handicap in early season, which makes me immediately wary. Placed three times in a lower class than this, did go close in a handicap(headed on the line) but that was a 14lb worse event than this. Hasn't won a race yet from 8 attempts. May benefit for the longer trip and the jockey, but it strikes me as hopeful rather than confident. One factor certainly in his favour is the draw, which does may difference over this distance at Windsor.
Best of luck anyway, and if you can convince me on how it qualifies under VDW then it would be informative.

Rob

rob,

some good points there,

they also had to have it gelded so its not that good.

Epiglotis

I presume you mean either do I see Meelup as a VDW selection, or do I think it will win.

For me it would not come near to being a VDW selection because, although it scores quite well on the sf based ability rating which the evidence suggests VDW took seriously for 3yos, and he has been very consistent, the form is suspect.

Do I think it will win? No though, as Rob has said, the draw could help and the jockey is not exactly a negative.

Good luck if you back it.

Rob: I'm not claiming it qualifies as a VDW selection just that it is in one of the recommended races, in the right fraction of the betting forecast and consistency rating, it also gets support from the two immediately available ratings, there are no other horses today about which this can be said. I'm not at all tempted to back it myself.

Guest,

Have been away for a few days, on my return I am more than a little disappointed you have once again failed to answer my questions. Re Stray Shot and Zamandra, I'm well aware other consistent horses were passed over. I left out the reason I consider the final decision was made, it is straight forward. Nothing to do with the clever form reading you like to hint at. You do ask if we/I think the likes of Investor are fooling themselves? I think they are, they don't explain (like you) how they find these horse. I asked why you were using the speed/merit ability rating in October, and had Lord Protector qualified before (after scoring his good s/f). Surely the fact LP had failed in lower class races since he had achieved the figure would be a negative against him?

One of the biggest differences between us is I think the ability rating is flawed. In this example you appear to be agreering. Is this the reason you used another method in this case? I don't understand the reason for the change, and if you are going to use different methods at the drop of a hat, how are people going to understand how you work? You give the impression LP is a VDW selection, ok I except he is. Why then can't you see Katies Charm could also be a VDW selection? The only reason I can see is because you didn't find it.

Determined,

I didn't ignore your question re the Saturday race, I just wasn't in a position to answer it. I didn't have a bet on Saturday, I had a quick look at that race. I thought it looked a poor race. As I have said before your race reading is good, I just hope you don't start looking for things that aren't there. I think the VDW methods are fairly straight forward, narrow the field as you have been shown, apply a sensible ability rating. Then spend the time going through the short listed horse in detail. Apply your common sense race reading, and I don't think you will go far wrong. Who knows in a little while you could have a new career.

Be Lucky

Good call Epi, I did my money.

Guest,
In contrast was a good response to your critics. However, I am still convinced that VDW only bet those horses that were in the top 3 rated for consistency (whether from the 1st 5 in the betting or the field as a whole) and deliberately avioded wagering on those that werent. Likely winners or not.

Epiglotis,
Using LTO Postmark ratings and the Daily Mail's Formcast, Ryalux also came through the numerical picture in the Scottish National. It won at 15/2. I presume you cant get the Mail in Japan!

Investor,
As a keen student of VDW you should be aware that he urged people to stick to the facts. So how then, do you account for this?
"JIB, No doubt your'e an intelligent person..."
The case for JIB possessing anything other than a well-thumbed dictionary (let alone intelligence) is far from proven.
regards,

Mtoto
I am not fooling anybody,Least of all myself.Like you i have followed this thread from the beginning,I have gone through all types of ups and downs,frustration through lack of understanding anger because i thought i had it right,But knew something was missing,And now contentment because i can see exactly what has been put across on this thread in one way or another,Or i can look back on past races and see for myself what others aren't yet aware of.But i'm sure if they persevere they too will find what they want.

As for not putting points across,You really have no idea of the amount of times carrots have been dangled in front of you,And you see them as no consequence,I mentioned Fayr jag,You said it didn't posses the class.You really ought to look at some of these horses with more of an open mind,One day you will see what this is all about and you'll kick yourself,Finally i would just like to say again i'm not fooling myself,But you could well be.

statajack,

just one instance of the numerical picture being out.

Pegwell bay was last of two on his penultimate run giving him a rating, consistency rating, of 12, not 4 as described, this did not preclude him from being a bet and a quite explicit example

Statajack
I had a good long lok at Stormez in the scottish national,And i rememberlto you commented you would be very suprised if it got beat,As it happens it did get beat by a 25/1 shot in a race it should have won,I was quite pleased with myself for letting him run,But nevertheless well done if you backed Ryalux.

Mtoto
I am going to mention that word interpretation again,You are more than aware of the consistency rating,I would like to point you to 2 horses that also had the consistent form to go with it,On friday there was LOUEN
And today there was BROKEN KNIGHTS this one had nothing to beat.Now Guest might not have touched these with a bargepole but i'm sure he knows why i would have given these 2 horses the attention i did.

mtoto
LORD PROTECTOR....The class in which a horse runs is not the same as the class in which it competes.

Investor,

GAYE CHANCE - Guest`s excellent post is on page 162. Date 23/07/02 at 10.46pm.

Cheers,

Mtoto,

Thanks for the kind words.

I agree the Spring Cup was a poor race this year but having watched the race several times the winner was always travelling like a good un`.

Clearly an improved horse but what will the h`capper do ?

determined
Thanks mate i.o.u 1

Barney,
Youve just proved my point. Which well known article does the following comment by VDW come from?

"observe the fact that Pegwell Bay is the only one to feature in the 3 most consistent and has the best form."

If that is not conclusive proof that the 2 aspects should be used in tandem I dont know what is.

regards,

statajack,

my point is that with the correct consistency rating applied (12) he was not in the three most consistent.

JIB,
Thank you for your interest in my penis but unfortunately I am unable to reciprocate. I do hear that Brazil is a lot more liberal than the UK as regards people of your persuasion so you are probably in the right place.
regards,

Investor,

I'm pleased you are now contented, but I thought that was something cow's went in for. You say I'm the one that may be mistaken, I will say this. There is a big difference going through a race afterwards and finding all the little clever things that make the winner backable. It's before the race you have to find the logical simple things. Can you tell me why Guest suddenly changed and used the other ability rating? I don't quite understand your last post Re Lord Protector, do you mean the class of the horse isn't the same as the class of the race it runs in. If so I would agree with that. But how do you pinpoint this horse, it has little or no class from the usual ability rating, it has failed in lower class races since achieving the rating (s/f). It has failed when it had a lot going for it right course, right weight, etc. It's easy now to make a case for it.

5 years experience tells me Fayr Jag was out classed in the race. Carrot or not I want to see the logic, then, and only then will I sit up and take notice. Trying to understand VDW is a hobby, nothing more. I hope to learn from it, and to be honest I think I am. However VDW showed us what consistent form is, and how to find it using the c/rating. If Guest, and others wants to ignore it that is up to them. I hope someone answers Statajack about how many non consistent horse VDW selected.

I don't want to sound like you, but if Guest really has cracked it why isn't he finding more winners? It looks as if the theory is better than the practical. Can I also ask if you are happy you understand it why are you still looking at systems? Even then, telling people with the system how to find MORE selections. Nothing to do with me but is it getting compulsive? If you back 1/2 shots in 16 horse races it looks as if you are just desperate to have a bet. Fair enough it is only paper trading, but I would advise you to stick at that.

Determined.

Mystic Man, I watched the race for the first time today. I can only agree he is improving. He has a good trainer who had a poor season last year, so the horse was well handicapped. I wouldn't worry about the increase in weight, the step up in class would be the worry for me. He should be able to hold his own (what ever the weight) in a race of the same class as Saturday (100)

Be Lucky